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We're running out of wind!
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

McKay's 195 kWh/d/p is carefully explained in his text, and yes, personally, it is 'generous' in the allowance for flights. I'd consider 125-150 kWh/d/p more realistic. Fred Hoyle in his OU book Energy or Extinction, 1977, c.f. p16ff goes for 150 kWh/d/p; Goeller and Weinberg note 130 kWh/d/p in developed countries, 65 kWh/d/p being the global average (Science 1976, 191, 683). The US gets through 250 kWh/d/p!

Goslow: in your calculation of your own consumption you have forgotten McKay's personal allowance for food, food transport, the manufactured goods you buy (e.g. the car), entertainment . . . Then on top there's all the public and government services such as NHS, defence, etc. To heat/light etc. our house and run the car we get through a rather saintly 19 MWh/annum.

I don't think this level of energy burn will continue indefinitely, it will be reduced as the efficiency of our lives improves. But a lurch of 40 % reduction ain't going to happen overnight - it'll be a steady dribble of improvements. We're not going to get far with a lot of our housing until the presernt stock falls down and we rebuild. Unless I'm mistaken and there are hordes of people who haven't so much as insulated their lofts?

(Five nines: I think it's 'no more than a one hour disconnection each year' and it's a local distribution 'standard' - not a generation/transmission standard).

Kenneal: LED lamps - yes, very nice, great for torches and the like. But until they get to a decent light colour, over my dead body.
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goslow



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK, so lets go for 125-130 currently. Though the Science reference is very old! I still find it a bit hard to believe that the indirect energy use is necessarily e.g. 10 times the direct household energy use. If I have time I'll read up a bit more about that.

I am quite certain there is scope to reduce this amount both at household and national level.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goslow wrote:
I still find it a bit hard to believe that the indirect energy use is necessarily e.g. 10 times the direct household energy use.


DUKES 5.2 tells us that in 2009 322 TWh of electricity was consumed, 123 TWh or 38% was consumed 'domestically'.

When it comes to total energy consumption, DUKES 1.1.5 says 143,931 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent, with a domestic consumption of 43,590 or 30%.

So, yeah. I also find that x10 figure hard to believe. It's more like x2-3 (assuming we're ignoring embodied energy).
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goslow wrote:
OK, so lets go for 125-130 currently.


Nah. Let's go for 12.5 - 13. That's still more than a lot of the world's population manage with and it brings long term survivability on this one planet within reach of plausibility.
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goslow



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sure. I just meant lets agree that its 125 at the moment.

12-13 total might be pushing it though. even if everyone had a passivhaus!
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

and the global average was 65 kWhpppd way back in 1976.

clv101: I'm not sure what you mean by the 10x multiplier. Taking your figures:
oil: 43,590,000 tons per annum, at 11.966 MWh/ton (section 1) amongst 60 million people is 23.8 kWhpppd
electricity (2.5 conversion - see RC above) 123 TWh/annum amongst 60 million people is 14.0 kWhpppd.
Add the two: 37.8 kWhpppd

McKay quotes 37 Kwpppd. There's a slight confusion in that McKay counts lighting and gadgetry separately (they're not large consumptions so if there's a disparity it's small)

So the figures you present seem reasonable.

So how do you get to 125 kWhpppd? On a personal basis we've still neglected food production and transport, water supply, sewerage, refuse collection, communications. Next, on a public basis you'd have to allow for communal services such as those provided by councils, the NHS, defence, police, etc. And then there's our share of manufacturing and industry.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An Inspector Calls wrote:
clv101: I'm not sure what you mean by the 10x multiplier.
I just took that straight from goslow's comment.
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the wide range of numbers reported above might all be down to the occupancy rate of each house. Using the DUKES figures (or reading McKay) averages these effects out but there'll be a spread of observations - apparently quite large!
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Pepperman



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
For comparison, the total power consumption of the average European person is 125 kWh/d...

What about the average European and the average Brit? Average European consumption of “primary energy” (which means the energy contained in raw fuels, plus wind and hydroelectricity) is about 125 kWh per day per person. The UK average is also 125 kWh per day per person...

UK average energy consumption is 125 kWh per day per person. I took this number from the UNDP Human Development Report, 2007.


http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/sustainable/book/tex/sewtha.pdf
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Pepperman



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also note that it's primary energy consumption which I don't find a particularly useful way of looking at things given the current inefficiencies of power generation and personal transportation in particular.
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goslow



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually I would not be surprised if our average UK total energy consumption is around the 125 KWh pppd mark, based on what everyone has presented so far. Considering that probably the average person has a much higher direct energy use than our own 12 pppd (for example our car mileage is quite low), and all the indirect factors that AIC lists.

And we need to consider these total amounts when it comes to energy supply. However, having both an individual measurement of direct energy use is also helpful so you can measure your own progress in cutting energy use.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, but with that DUKES 1.1.5 data from clv101 then the total UK energy consumption is 78 KHw pppd? That is more believable to me if the average direct might be something like 15-20.

And something more feasible to work with if we actually do go to a high level of renewables.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An Inspector Calls wrote:
.... We're not going to get far with a lot of our housing until the presernt stock falls down and we rebuild. Unless I'm mistaken and there are hordes of people who haven't so much as insulated their lofts?


I can't see much rebuilding being done in the future because energy costs are likely to make it prohibitive for most people. We're stuck with our current housing stock for several hundred years, I would think, so we'd better start thinking about insulating them pretty soon, while we can still afford it (or can still print the money to pay for it).

Quote:
Kenneal: LED lamps - yes, very nice, great for torches and the like. But until they get to a decent light colour, over my dead body.


If they can ban incandescent bulbs in favour of those horrible CFLs that I have been using for thirty odd years they can certainly ban CFLs when the LEDs become more common.
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal: I think there will be a revolt if they try to ram LEDs down our throats.

Insulation: it's great saying we can just go ahead and insulate our houses, but my experience is that with older houses they all seem to have unique problems. For example - how would you tackle this:
Leeds: Edwardian, end-of-terrace, three storey house, solid brick walls 50 cm thick throughout. End wall is unbroken, high quality original brickwork, facing directly onto narrow, public pavement. Inside the house, door and window casements butt directly to the end brick face. Just how do you insulate the wall cost effectively?
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goslow wrote:
Oh, but with that DUKES 1.1.5 data from clv101 then the total UK energy consumption is 78 KHw pppd? That is more believable to me if the average direct might be something like 15-20.

And something more feasible to work with if we actually do go to a high level of renewables.

Note what RC said earlier:
"Total UK electricity use is (very aproximately) 1 TWh per day at the moment. There's a multiplier of about 2.5 to get to the original energy content of the fuel. And (so they say) the energy content of the gas we use (heating, process heat for industry) and oil we use (transport, oil for industry) are each about as much again. Giving a total of 7.5 TWh per day all in. And there are 60M of us.

Thus, each person uses 7,500,000,000,000/60,000,000 Wh, or 125 kWh per day, of energy. Like McKay, I'm not counting the energy content of imported goods, though of course this little excercise does count the energy content of the UK services we all share (NHS, Forces, Polis, etc).
"

Dukes states (p13 of 2010 report) that we have a total primary energy cosnumption of 220 *10^6 tons of oil equivalent. At 11.966MWh/ton and 60 million people that's ~44 MWh per person per year, or 120 kWhpppd.

Perhaps now we could assess the other side of the energy balance and see if renewables and efficiencies can balance supply?


Last edited by An Inspector Calls on Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:46 am; edited 1 time in total
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