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mobbsey
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2234
Location: Banbury
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mobbsey
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2234
Location: Banbury
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 Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2012 10:03 am Post subject: |
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It hasn't caught the mainstream media, but the autopsy over Poland's failure to "find" lots of shale gas has been marked not by calm reality, but by 'irrational exuberance'.
It doesn't matter to the general economy that you have got "some" shale gas resources; what matters is that you still haven't got enough to be independent of the global system, and therefore you're still subject to the shocks and failures of that global system.
Anyhow, to get to the point, it seems that Poland's optimistic view that they had a quarter or third of the initial estimates was a little over the top -- latest estimates state they may only have *15%* of what the USEIA forcast in their global report. Arguably, given it's a flaw in the method of that report which has led to downgrades of 60% in estimates for the US, that picture is likely to be replicated around the world.
For coverage of yesterday's annoucement, and the efforts to "accentuate the positive", see:
| Quote: | http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/21/idUSWNA306320120321
TEXT-Fitch: shale gas in Poland could still be a game changer
Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:42am EDT
March 21 - Shale gas in Poland could still be a game changer for the country's energy sector despite the disappointing shale gas reserve estimate published today by the Polish Geological Institute (PGI), says Fitch Ratings. PGI assessed most likely recoverable shale gas reserves to be between 0.35 and 0.77 trillion cubic meters (tcm), which is about one -tenth the 5.3 tcm estimated by the US Energy Information Administration in April 2011. PGI estimates maximum recoverable shale gas reserves at 1.92 tcm.
It is still too early to make any meaningful assumptions about the future of shale gas in Poland, believed to have one of the highest development potentials in Europe. Less than 20 exploration wells have been drilled by domestic and foreign companies, in many cases with disappointing results.
{SNIP} |
| Quote: | http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-21/poland-may-have-768-billion-cubic-meters-shale-gas-reserves-1-.html
Poland Says Shale Reserves May Be 85% Below U.S. Estimate
Marek Strzelecki, Bloomberg, March 21st 2012
Poland’s recoverable shale gas reserves are probably as much as 768 billion cubic meters, or 85 percent less than a U.S. Energy Department estimate from last year, according to the Polish Geological Institute.
The deposits are enough to cover as many as 65 years of demand and are equal to as much as 200 years of the country’s production, Deputy Environment Minister Piotr Wozniak said today in Warsaw at a presentation of the institute’s data. “These estimates would make Poland Europe’s third-largest holder of gas reserves,” he said.
The minimum estimate is 346 billion cubic meters and is based on an analysis by the institute of 39 wells drilled in Poland from the 1950s to the 1980s. Reserves may be as much as 1.9 trillion cubic meters assuming maximum productivity, the study shows. The Polish estimates are less than a forecast last year by the U.S. Energy Information Administration that the country had as much as 5.2 trillion cubic meters of shale gas.
{SNIP} |
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RalphW
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 3526
Location: Cambridge
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| Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2012 11:46 am Post subject: |
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The same irrational exuberance can be seen on the comment threads in the UK media like the Gruaniad. A lot of otherwise sensible commenters seem to have latched on to shale gas as solution to our medium term energy problems, and simply cannot register that the huge quoted reserve figures are pie in the sky.
Any comments Fifth? |
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DominicJ
Joined: 18 Nov 2008
Posts: 4387
Location: NW UK
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| Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2012 11:58 am Post subject: |
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Lets just try and look at these numbers for a few minutes.
Ok, 0.77 trillion cubic meters isnt a 5.3tcm, its not one tenth of it either, its more than one seventh, but, from a quick look at wikipedia, I make that to be seven years peak production from the North Sea, and it could still be three times that.
Given the abject terror in the watermelons, I'd guess its likely to end up closer to the US stance.
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I'm a realist, not a hippie |
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mobbsey
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2234
Location: Banbury
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 12:40 am Post subject: |
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Hmmn, just found this -- no one told me it was on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdy_8yRfFhk
Also, I misread the title 'fraknet' for 'freaknet'.....
well, it's not outside of the range of possibility! |
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kenneal - lagger
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:54 am Post subject: |
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A very good talk, Mobbsey.
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It is very, very, very serious indeed. This is the big one!" Professor Tim Lang, APPGOPO, 25/03/08. And he was talking about food, not oil or the economy! |
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mobbsey
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2234
Location: Banbury
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| Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 1:55 pm Post subject: |
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| kenneal - lagger wrote: | | A very good talk, Mobbsey. |
I hated it. I like to have 2 hours for that sort of gig; the organisers promised me I'd have an hour because I wouldn't turn up otherwise; in the end they only gave me half an hour. Hellishly rushed as a result.
I think these sorts of days, where they parade talking heads past the audience, giving each only 5 to 20 minutes, are absurd. You can never really learn anything -- or challenge what you're being told -- because there isn't time. |
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emordnilap
Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 9476
Location: way out west
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| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:03 am Post subject: |
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Maybe this should be under the 'hosepipe ban' thread:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/17/fracking-aquifers-tap-water
| Quote: | | Just when we're told drought has become endemic in the UK, the Department of Energy and Climate Change has given the go-ahead for a process that will desiccate us more than any we've tried before on these islands: hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. |
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The human appears to have no idea what its ideal diet should be; has self-inflicted diet-related diseases; causes extensive environmental destruction through basic food production & creates pathogenic infestations that widely infect its food supply. |
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stevecook172001
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 2281
Location: UK
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| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:26 am Post subject: |
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| mobbsey wrote: | Hmmn, just found this -- no one told me it was on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdy_8yRfFhk
Also, I misread the title 'fraknet' for 'freaknet'.....
well, it's not outside of the range of possibility! |
An excellent and informative talk Mobsey. I am bound to say, though, that all of the education of the public in the world will not stop this taking place. It is coming. As people's energy and fuel bills climb ever higher, they will accept any proposals by the PTB that promise to keep our economic boat afloat (even if those promises turn out to be hollow, in the end). It's inevitable.
Last edited by stevecook172001 on Wed Apr 18, 2012 11:13 am; edited 1 time in total |
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emordnilap
Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 9476
Location: way out west
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| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 10:52 am Post subject: |
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| stevecook172001 wrote: | | I am bound to say, though, that all of the education of the public in the world will not stop this taking place. It is coming. As people's energy and fuel bills climb ever higher, they will accept any proposals by the PTB that promise to keep the our economic boat afloat (even if those promises turn out to be hollow, in the end). It's inevitable. |
+1
No doubt we'll be told, "fracking or austerity - your choice"; what we'll get, of course, is Scylla and Charybdis.
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The human appears to have no idea what its ideal diet should be; has self-inflicted diet-related diseases; causes extensive environmental destruction through basic food production & creates pathogenic infestations that widely infect its food supply. |
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stevecook172001
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 2281
Location: UK
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| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| emordnilap wrote: | | stevecook172001 wrote: | | I am bound to say, though, that all of the education of the public in the world will not stop this taking place. It is coming. As people's energy and fuel bills climb ever higher, they will accept any proposals by the PTB that promise to keep the our economic boat afloat (even if those promises turn out to be hollow, in the end). It's inevitable. |
+1
No doubt we'll be told, "fracking or austerity - your choice"; what we'll get, of course, is Scylla and Charybdis. |
Yep |
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biffvernon
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 13914
Location: Lincolnshire
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| Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 11:38 am Post subject: |
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The hosepipe thread? So do they have to use hosepipes for fracking? That's it then. Problem solved.
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biffvernon
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kenneal - lagger
Site Admin
Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 7062
Location: Newbury, Berkshire
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| Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 4:42 am Post subject: |
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Fracking hell! That's bad!
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It is very, very, very serious indeed. This is the big one!" Professor Tim Lang, APPGOPO, 25/03/08. And he was talking about food, not oil or the economy! |
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kenneal - lagger
Site Admin
Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire
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| Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 4:43 am Post subject: |
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Or for any dirty Frackers out there, "Fracking Heaven!"
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It is very, very, very serious indeed. This is the big one!" Professor Tim Lang, APPGOPO, 25/03/08. And he was talking about food, not oil or the economy! |
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