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The end of the jumbo jet.

 
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:27 pm    Post subject: The end of the jumbo jet. Reply with quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32400130

Interesting little piece on the BBC website. Apparently in 2014 there were no orders at all for either Boeing 747s or Airbus A380s. This does rather suggest that jumbo aircraft are going to go the way of Concorde, although the some of those currently in service will probably still be flying 20 years from now.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5267
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

End of out of earth orbit human travel - 1970
End of supersonic passenger travel - 2010
Peak passenger aircraft average size - 2015

Any bets on the next milestone?

End of space station occupation?
Peak oil tanker ship tonnage?

(dates are approximate , being from memory)
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The downside of this is that more smaller aircraft might be flown leading to the push for more runway capacity. Smaller numbers of jumbos could be a negative phenomenon.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smaller aircraft, big deal. It's more aircraft, more flights, more short flights, more pollution per passenger, more airports, more traffic to airports.

We've been invited to a music weekend north-east of Berlin later this year. We're encouraged to "Fly Shannon - Berlin Friday afternoon, return Monday morning". And the instruments - have you seen how baggage is handled?
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote



Odd; the above image shows up in Firefox but not in Safari (both Mac Yosemite).
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:


Odd; the above image shows up in Firefox but not in Safari (both Mac Yosemite).


Doesn't show up on firefox for me.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any nerds around?
Laughing
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a permissions thing on the referenced web site, nothing to do with the browser.

You must have some sort of login active to let you see the image on your own machine. Links from other locations are rejected.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I found this article really interesting as it was the A380 that first got me thinking about peak oil. I remember it very clearly, I read about the A380 around 2002 or 2003. My first thought was "Wow, it takes a long time to design, build, test and sell a thousand aircraft - which are then expected to fly for decades, like the 747 has. That's a bit of a gamble on the the future of oil..."

So I googled oil supplies - and found the DTI published field by filed data for the North sea... it was in decline! Then I found Colin's monthly newsletters and ASPO... which led me to read Deffeyes, Hineberg and the rest, went to Lisbon, Pisa, Barcelona, Ireland, Boston USA ASPO conferences etc.

...and started blogging about energy and peak oil. I think this from 2004 is the first actual peak oil post:
http://chrisvernon.co.uk/2004/07/the-truth-about-oil-and-the-looming-world-energy-crisis-by-c-j-campbell/

So A380 certainly changed my outlook on the world.
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AutomaticEarth



Joined: 08 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More on the A380 white elephant here:

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/a380-celebrates-first-decade-in-flight--but-how-long-will-it-last-10205583.html

Another thing worth pointing out is that the A380 was meant to be used at hub airports, which you need to get to first (possibly via a connecting flight). The Dreamliner is more for direct point-to-point travel, so seems to have proved itself more successful.
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SleeperService



Joined: 02 May 2011
Posts: 1105
Location: Nottingham UK

PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 6:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A sign of reality biting perhaps?

There are plenty of spare 747s and other airliners stored all over the place so there will be plenty available even if the last new one is built.

The 777 (I think) can do most of a 747 at a lot lower cost, it could simply be that it's reaching obsolescence. Personally I think the Airbus offering is a little early to the market, it may have appeared to ensure some sales before the market disappeared. They may remember Concord Razz

I agree with Ralph's observation, The ISS is a remnant of NASA machinations in the 70s, first chance they get it'll be abandoned, it won't be long before all the partners want out then it'll be down to who blinks first. My money would be on the ESA.
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