PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

U.S. geologists stumble upon shale oil reserve motherlode ..

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> News
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 9815
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:46 am    Post subject: U.S. geologists stumble upon shale oil reserve motherlode .. Reply with quote

Is the climate now totally f***ed?

U.S. geologists stumble upon shale oil reserve motherlode valued at US$900 billion in shale below West Texas and US drillers rush for a piece of the action. Who's going to tell them that they can't drill it?
_________________
"When the last tree is cut down, and the last river has been poisoned, and the last fish has been caught, Only then will you find out that you cannot eat money". --The Cree Indians
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5265
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rockman over at peakoil.com says that this 'new discovery' already has 6000
wells drilld through it over 20 years. The Texas geologists have reported its economic potential at a few percent of this figure.

It would not be the first time that the US geological service has overestimated economic reserves by 2000%.

Quote:
– “The ‘NEW” oil discovery is just more Texas bullshit.” Not Texas BS…USGS BS. LOL.
Texas state govt has its own evaluation group, the BEG…Bureau of Economic Geology. As you’ll see the folks who understand Texas petroleum geology far better then any other research group have a rather different view of the Wolfcamp potential then the USGS. BTW if you read all the way down you’ll see that almost 6,000 wells have been completed over the last 20 years in the “newly discovered field”. Data that the BEG has used to evaluate the trend potential:
“Established in 1909, the Bureau of Economic Geology in the Jackson School of Geosciences is the oldest and second-largest organized research unit at The University of Texas at Austin. In addition to functioning as the State Geological Survey of Texas, the Bureau conducts research focusing on the intersection of energy, the environment, and the economy, where significant advances are being made tackling tough problems globally. The Bureau partners with federal, state, and local agencies, academic institutions, industry, nonprofit organizations, and foundations to conduct high-quality research and disseminate the results to the scientific and engineering communities as well as to the broad public.
Talented people are the Bureau of Economic Geology’s formula for success. Our staff of over 250 includes scientists, engineers, economists, and graduate students, representing 27 countries, often working in integrated, multi-disciplinary research teams. The Bureau’s facilities and state-of-the-art equipment are world class, and include more than fifteen individual laboratories hosting researchers investigating everything from nanoparticles to shale porosity and permeability. The Bureau also maintains three major well core research and storage facilities, in Houston, Austin, and Midland–together believed to be the largest archive of subsurface rock material in the world, as well as an extensive wireline log library.”
So what does the BEG think of the Wolfcamp shales? Can’t find that number broken out but for the entire Spraberry trend, including all the conventional reservoirs: 10 billion bbls. Over the last 14 years the BEG calculates a total of 120 million bbl from the Wolfcamp…less then 9 million bbls per year. From the BEG publication:
“Known as the Spraberry Trend, productive areas extend across 18 counties and contain more than 10 Bbbl of oil. The Wolfcamp (Permian) underlies the Dean and then deeper zones in the Pennsylvanian. This expanded productive interval is called the Wolfberry Play. Multiple fracture stimulation stages open up these low permeability formations. More than 5,800 Wolfberry oil wells have been completed since the late 1990s. Initial production averages 30 to 125 BOPD, and ultimate per-well recovery is estimated at 100 to 140 MBOE. The BEG team is collaborating with several Wolfberry operators to achieve a better understanding of this complex hydrocarbon system.”

Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Pepperman



Joined: 10 Oct 2010
Posts: 759

PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberman/2016/11/20/permian-giant-oil-field-would-lose-500-billion-at-todays-prices/#7a2c2dae9dbc
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 9815
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pepperman wrote:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberman/2016/11/20/permian-giant-oil-field-would-lose-500-billion-at-todays-prices/#7a2c2dae9dbc


It would need an oil price of $70/bbl to just break even on the basis of the above article. There's a while to wait before they even think about drilling to see if the oil is actually there then!

Maybe we still have time to save the occupants of the planet.
_________________
"When the last tree is cut down, and the last river has been poisoned, and the last fish has been caught, Only then will you find out that you cannot eat money". --The Cree Indians
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3378

PostPosted: Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Come on, you know that between 75% and 90% are going to have to go, so "saving" is not relevant.
_________________
If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 9815
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

True! Perhaps I should have said "leave a slightly better place for the remnants of the populations to live." And by populations I mean all life.
_________________
"When the last tree is cut down, and the last river has been poisoned, and the last fish has been caught, Only then will you find out that you cannot eat money". --The Cree Indians


Last edited by kenneal - lagger on Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3378

PostPosted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll support that.
_________________
If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 883
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the other hand, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Oil Industry Anticipates Day of Reckoning:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-industry-anticipates-day-of-reckoning-1480248012

This month, European oil company MOL Group delivered a stark message to investors: Demand for fuel in its key markets is bound to fall. So-called peak oil demand is a mind-bending scenario that global producers such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC and state-owned Saudi Aramco are beginning to quietly anticipate. But MOL has a transformation plan that is among the most explicit responses to the trend, indicating how the landscape may change for big energy providers over the next decade. The Hungarian company is rethinking its traditional focus on fuel supply and shifting investment to petrochemicals, the key ingredient of everyday plastic products and a sector where MOL believes growth will continue even when its fuel business falters.

Although there will still be customers for its fuel, the company reckons demand will soon flatten and then start falling in its Eastern European markets around 2030. “We see that as an inevitability,” MOL Chief Financial Officer Jozsef Simola said. Big oil players such as Exxon Mobil Corp, BP PLC and Saudi Arabia—which is leading recent efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost oil prices—are also anticipating significant shifts in demand, though there is no consensus on the timing and their moves have been gradual. They are increasing their investment in petrochemicals, pumping more natural gas, driving down costs and even diversifying into alternative energy sources like solar power.

Continues...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1452

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Robert Rapier: Is the Permian 20 Billion barrel oil Discovery Real?

Robert Rapier wrote:
It is important to understand what this assessment actually means. This oil has been assessed as an “undiscovered resource.” This scientific assessment means the forecasters have a certain degree of confidence that the oil is there. For this particular assessment, the 50 percent confidence level is that there are at least 20 billion barrels there. The study further estimates that there is a 95 percent chance that there are at least 11 billion barrels there, and a 5 percent chance that there are at least 31 billion barrels there.

However, the fact that the assessment refers to the “resource” means that they are estimating the technically recoverable oil in place. This says nothing of the economics of recovering this oil. The amount that would be economically worthwhile to recover at prevailing commodity prices — which would be classified as “proved reserves” — will be a smaller subset of the assessed amount. It would even be zero at a sufficiently low oil price. This is merely an attempt by the USGS to estimate the amount of oil that could be extracted over time if cost was not a concern.

_________________
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> News All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group