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Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CCGT reached 24.38 tonight which I am pretty certain is an all time record.
Coal reached 8.4, which is the highest seen recently, though of course it was much higher in years gone by.
OCGT at 0.2
Wind was a very typical 2.0

It would have been interesting if the wind had dropped to 1 or if a couple of nukes had tripped, or if the other half of the French interconnector had broken.
Not certain if another 1 or 2 from gas is available.

All figures in GW
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Pepperman



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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More on the interconnector issues:

http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2016/11/capacity-problem-looms-as-main-uk-interconnector-damaged.html
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CCGT tonight at over 25GW which is another all time record.
OCGT running as well, no significant imports from France.

Certainly seem to be cutting it fine.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks very tight all day today,
CCGT at over 25, unprecedented until the last few days.
Very little wind or PV, only about 1 in total.
Nuclear a little reduced at nearly 8, but still doing well compared to some winters.
Coal at over 8, which is probably about all we have left.
Not much hope of help from France due to nuclear outages there.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indicated demand is just over 51, a record for this season.
Coal is at about 9.5, the highest recently, though of course it has been higher in previous years.
Wind under 1.
CCGT at 26, and was over 26 in this mornings peak, another record.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unless something truly exceptional happens, the panic is now over until a few days into the new year.
Plenty of wind is expected today and tomorrow, and from Friday onwards demand will reduce for the Christmas and year holidays.

Full normal winter demand wont return until a few days into the new year.

Christmas day can bring the odd very localised breakdown due to overloading of substations and cables from all the roasting of turkeys, but national demand is much reduced as many businesses are closed.
Even local overloads are less likely this Christmas as the expected mild weather will reduce heating demand.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tonight's supply figures would be cause for concern on a weekday, but should be fine on a Saturday.

Demand is 41
Very little wind, under 1, nuclear reduced from recent peaks down to 6.8
Coal at about 8.7
CCGT at about 22.

Had demand reached 51, an entirely plausible figure for a winter WEEKDAY evening, then I am not convinced that another 10 would have been available.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks as though we have muddled through OK as is usual. Margins were tighter than is desirable, but the lights did not* go out*

And whilst of course winter is not over, it is nearly over and the season of peak demanding exceeding 50GW is almost certainly over.

The weather forecast for about the next 10 days is for relatively mild and reasonably windy conditions, so unless something truly exceptional occurs, no problems for 10 days.
10 days from now takes us to nearly the end of February, by which time demand historically reduces a bit.
And also with increasing daylight hours, PV is starting to make a small contribution to the early part of the evening peak demand. This shortens the time of the high peak and increases the chances of being able to use pumped storage for the later part of the peak.

Power from coal is of course much reduced, but did fairly regularly reach about 10GW.
I wonder how much coal capacity will remain for NEXT winter.

*apart of course from localised faults and failures that are unrelated to generating capacity.
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