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Dutch election

 
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 693

PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:08 pm    Post subject: Dutch election Reply with quote

And don't forget the Dutch election on Wednesday; especially after Turkish citizens rioting in Rotterdam earlier.

(this post and those following have been split from the thread about the upcoming French election)
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Snail

Yes, that will be interesting.

Wilder's has been sliding in the polls but will the riots by the Turks help him in the last few days? Certainly it can't do him any harm.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Early exit polls suggest a victory for the present governing party, with the far right candidate doing less well than expected.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Early exit polls suggest a victory for the present governing party, with the far right candidate doing less well than expected.


To be fair, most recent polling suggested Mark Rutte would win. His hardline and Wilder's-lite message to Turkey and its immigrants played well with voters.

Just shows how Wilder's is transforming Dutch politics even without being in government.

Also shows that if centrist politicians take ordinary voters seriously and take a strong approach, even if only verbally, to Islamic extremism and Muslim migrants, they can do well.

Its when establishment politicians clearly disregard or ignore voters concerns that the far fight/populist right do well. Macron anyone!!!

Markets who read into this result to suggest that Le Pen doesn't have a chance will be reading it wrong.

If she faces Macron, who shows no evidence of understanding the widespread concerns around Islam, she could certainly win in a second round run-off. Fillon is closer to Rutte in that regard in that in his language and to a lesser extent policies "gets" the threat posed by fundamentalism.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
and Muslim migrants

It is always this question as to whether you would categorise people by what they do or what their religion is.

Trump would have banned two of the 12 girls at my daughters birthday party. One was Syrian and one was Sudanese. Both would have been banned. There were two other Muslim girls at the birthday party that would not have been banned, however.

My own personal view is that we should oppose people based upon what they do rather than their religion. Trump and his supporters play into the hands of those people who want a global religious war.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem with the religion of Islam is that what it is and what it expects it followers to be at a very granular level of behaviors and beliefs is much more inextricably linked than pretty much any other religion. Most other religions do not interfere with a persons ability to fit into a secular public space quite so much as Islam does. This is its central problem.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:

My own personal view is that we should oppose people based upon what they do rather than their religion. Trump and his supporters play into the hands of those people who want a global religious war.

Do those people truly want a religious war or just see that one is inevitably coming and faced with that probability are planing to survive it or better yet win it outright?
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote:

My own personal view is that we should oppose people based upon what they do rather than their religion. Trump and his supporters play into the hands of those people who want a global religious war.

Do those people truly want a religious war or just see that one is inevitably coming and faced with that probability are planing to survive it or better yet win it outright?

Daesh appear to want this. They appeared at one stage to take on each
individual permanent member of the security council.

Often the islamic extremists in the Middle East are fighting other Muslims, however. (Sunni - Shi'a).
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

John - I don't want them in my country. Do you understand?
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
John - I don't want them in my country. Do you understand?

Who are they?
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To be precise, I want to have a severely restricted migration policy going forward from mainly Muslim countries and the total end of refugees (with the exception of Christians from the Middle East) coming to the UK.

This policy is shared by the majority of Europeans, as shown in the recent Chatham House polling on views on Muslim migration into Europe.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whereas I have supported changes to the law on migration in various ways that are restrictive, I do not see the key division in the world in religious terms. I see it as a distinction between extremists some of whom wish a religious war and those who believe human beings are all equal.

Two of the 12 girls at my daughters 11th Birthday party (which was a trip in a limo to a film) were from countries banned by Trump (Sudan and Syria - not actually a refugee).

The Sudanese girl's brother (who is now 5) invited my son to his Star Wars themed birthday party as well.

I don't believe in a free for all on migration policy and believe we are better funding support for Refugees abroad rather than just saying that everyone should come here. However, people should be treated primarily as individuals not as part of a collective group.

We have changed the law to effectively exile people who are fighting in Syria and Iraq for Daesh or imprison them if somehow they get here. I supported those changes.
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Automaton



Joined: 22 Jan 2016
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
Whereas I have supported changes to the law on migration in various ways that are restrictive, I do not see the key division in the world in religious terms. I see it as a distinction between extremists some of whom wish a religious war and those who believe human beings are all equal.


So if you're anti-Islam, you're an extremist who wants a religious war, and a racist, because you don't believe human beings are all equal? What utter nonsense.

It's been pointed out many times before, but apparently still needs repeating: being anti-religion (any or all) is NOT racism. It is NOT a belief that one human is better than another (in fact it's often the complete opposite). It IS a 'belief' that one system of law (sometimes called a religion) is better than another. And surely no-one would argue that there's anything wrong with taking such a stance? Well.. maybe if they were religious.....

Because it's worth noting that most religious people DO believe they are better than those who are not, or those who are of a different persuasion. It's usually written into their creed, and is an essential part of the appeal (read 'psychological manipulation').
Religion is divisive (and deliberately so), but the religious like to turn that around and claim they are being treated 'unfairly', even if it's just that their currently privileged position is being eroded. When you make the sort of statements you do, John Hemming, you're playing right into their hands.

If we could have admitted that religions are systems of law, then we could have said that we already have a system of law here that we like just fine thank you very much. And we could perhaps have moved to a more enlightened, 'leave your religion at the door' approach to immigration. And made the world a better place.
But it's far too late for that now.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Automaton wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote:
Whereas I have supported changes to the law on migration in various ways that are restrictive, I do not see the key division in the world in religious terms. I see it as a distinction between extremists some of whom wish a religious war and those who believe human beings are all equal.


So if you're anti-Islam, you're an extremist who wants a religious war, and a racist, because you don't believe human beings are all equal? What utter nonsense.


An obvious misreading of what I said.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/03/19/populist-politics-and-the-dutch-elections/

My take on the Dutch elections.
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