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France watch...
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 685

PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obama endorses the establishment-favourite, and seemingly manufactured, Macron:http://www.france24.com/en/20170420-obama-makes-friendly-call-french-presidential-hopeful-macron-hint-election

Recently from wikileaks, past CIA infiltration into the French political system.
https://wikileaks.org/cia-france-elections-2012/
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like Macron versus le Pen.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indeed, though on present information it appears that Macron will win in the second round as he is ahead of Marine Le Pen on present projections.
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AutomaticEarth



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So we have a former investment banker who could be the next president of France.....what could possibly go wrong?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/04/23/eu-breathes-easy-now-politics-usual-no-longer-option-france/
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marine Le Pen to "step aside as leader of the national front" but still hopes to be next president, having "put aside partisan politics"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861[/url]
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My latest take on the French elections.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/04/30/french-presidential-elections-and-then-there-were-two/

Likely that Macron will win but Le Pen has a narrow road to victory...
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
My latest take on the French elections.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/04/30/french-presidential-elections-and-then-there-were-two/

Likely that Macron will win but Le Pen has a narrow road to victory...

LB I haven't of course followed this as closely as you have, but from my American point of view I look at Le Pen as being the French version of Trump. That means her election is certainly possible and perhaps even more then likely. I think it is within her hands to win or lose based on her speeches and actions between now and election day. If she says and does the right things Macron will be powerless to stop her.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes and no.

Le Pen is a nationalist and a populist like Trump, but they differ on economic policy (Le Pen is basically a socialist).
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Yes and no.

Le Pen is a nationalist and a populist like Trump, but they differ on economic policy (Le Pen is basically a socialist).

Yes but people are not voting for an economic policy, they are voting against the current leadership and their immigration policy. The one most apposed to current stasis quo gets the votes.
Trump did not win the presidency, Hillary lost it.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Yes and no.

Le Pen is a nationalist and a populist like Trump, but they differ on economic policy (Le Pen is basically a socialist).
This is why I hope she wins since it will send a strong message to socialists around the world that they need to jettison their Faustian pact with neo-con globalism and fast if they want to shape the future in a socialist image.
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If she doesn't win this time, she will for sure next. Disappointment in macron will be an inevitability; tho', I'm not saying she'll do any better.

I'm surprised its so close now. What with the problems France specifically and society in general now face. People are still too happy!
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2017 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://paularbair.wordpress.com/2017/05/02/un-second-tour-a-qui-perd-gagne/

Cracking article on the French elections (translated).
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/frelect

Low turnout which may help MLP.

I would still expect a Macron victory.
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/frelect

Low turnout which may help MLP.

I would still expect a Macron victory.

It appears you have it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN183003?il=0
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clv101
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the short term this is likely to bring a bit of 'stability' to the heart of Europe, however, he's got a huge task ahead of him over the next next five years for his presidency to be regarded as positive and for Le Pen's inevitable challenge in 2022(?) not to be more successful.
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