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France watch...
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
(Le Pen is basically a socialist).


That's a misused word.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So is "fascist"
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are we happy to settle on National Socialist ?
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Little John



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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Settle" on "national socialist" for what purpose?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, here is my take on why Le Pen lost...

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/05/07/french-presidential-elections-final-forecast/

I think she could have done better if she had played her cards right. She was around 40% for most of the election versus Macron (until her disastrous tv debate lost her 5% of the electorate).

If she had ditched her anti Euro/Frexit plans, that probably would have added another 4% of the electorate (mainly older, conservative and anti-immigrant voters), pushing her towards the mid-40's.

However, I reached the conclusion that Marion simply lacks the presidential stature to win the election (although a makeover and intensive training to improve her overall "look" may have helped a bit).

Still, hitting the mid-40's was an achievable target and it was her tactics, strategy and general failure to connect with the centre-right electorate that sank her.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have my doubts whether she will win in 2022 - I don't think she has the ability to win elections. The National Front need to rebrand, ditch the Le Pen's and bring a new generation forward who are closer in spirit to the Gaullist Conservative Right.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What comes after her in 2022 will make her form of nationalism look tame
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John - the other possibility is that next time around the hard left will get into the second round.

Now that will be fascinating.

Either the National Front or the Republicans will sort themselves out over the next five years and consolidate the anti-immigrant, tough on security centre-right/hard right electorate. The Socialist party is dead and Macron's brand of liberal centrist politics will probably be discredited if his presidency fails, like Hollande.

My sense is that 2022 will be either a populist centre-right candidate (either the NF or Republicans) versus a populist hard left candidate in the second round. Who will win is a toughie and could be very close indeed.
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