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Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
.....
And of course NOT turning on the washing machine in the peak, but instead letting the internet turn it on at a time of relative plenty anytime in the next 24 hours would help a bit.


Or you can buy a plug in timer socket to turn it on when you want.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
adam2 wrote:
.....
And of course NOT turning on the washing machine in the peak, but instead letting the internet turn it on at a time of relative plenty anytime in the next 24 hours would help a bit.


Or you can buy a plug in timer socket to turn it on when you want.


Yes, that certainly saves some money if one is on an off peak tariff. It is what* I do.

Rather a blunt instrument though compared to control via the internet.
I set mine to operate at about 04-00 as that is well within the off peak time.
What if the grid had plenty of power available 02-00 but less at 04-00 because the wind was forecast to drop suddenly.
Also internet control allows the wash cycle to be paused in case of sudden and unexpected power shortage.

*to be strictly accurate, that is what I did with the old washing machine, the new one has a built in "start delay" control whereby starting of the wash may be delayed by any number of whole hours from 1 up to 24.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
Potemkin Villager wrote:
emordnilap wrote:

As has been advocated many times on this forum, the situation could all be dealt with in one blow, no need for bitty legislation.


I assume you are alluding to a hard grid crash?


That might do it. Laughing

Seriously, ask Shaun Chamberlain.

I have lost the two of you's line of thought. What good would a hard crash achieve? Would it make the needed response readily apparent? To whom? And would they be the ones in charge and in control of the needed funds.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
Potemkin Villager wrote:
emordnilap wrote:

As has been advocated many times on this forum, the situation could all be dealt with in one blow, no need for bitty legislation.


I assume you are alluding to a hard grid crash?


That might do it. Laughing

Seriously, ask Shaun Chamberlain.

I have lost the two of you's line of thought.


Apols. vt. I was advocating asking Shaun Chamberlain, who is heavily involved in TEQs; PV thought I might instead have meant a hard crash, which would be the alternative to Shaun's baby.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

National grid have now published the winter outlook for the approaching winter.

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/FES/Winter-Outlook/

Click on the above, and then click the link about half way down the front page for the full report.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having read the winter outlook report, it seems to me to be reasonably accurate, I see no glaring errors or omissions, but as in previous years I feel that it may be a bit optimistic.

In particular an assumed maximum demand of 50.7GW seems a bit optimistic. A prolonged cold spell in midwinter could in my view see demand reach 52GW.
Demand has been falling for some years, but may not continue to fall.
The increase in the number of all electric homes might prove interesting.

The spare capacity seems better than in the recent past, but is measured in a slightly different way so might not be a direct comparison.
The approaching winter is the first one in which the new "capacity market"* applies and the reliability of such capacity remains to be seen.

In line with accepted practice, the national grid apply "de rating factors" to plant capacity, thereby allowing for the historic average rate of breakdowns and other outages.
The figures used have a good record of reflecting the actual position in previous years. The main caveat is that such averages do not take account of any systemic problem that affects a whole category of generation, for example a safety issue that affects all nukes of a certain design, or a lack of gas supply to gas power stations.

My personnel view is that we will probably muddle through as usual, but that the margin may be tighter than forecast, and that exceptional severe weather could lead to the odd rota cut, probably a few hours a year at the worst.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I presume the derating capacity will increase a lot with wind power as a major source as it is unpredictable and mainly away from cities. Home solar will tend to feed in to the local neighbourhood of consumers.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
I presume the derating capacity will increase a lot with wind power as a major source as it is unpredictable and mainly away from cities. Home solar will tend to feed in to the local neighbourhood of consumers.


Wind power is treated differently, a figure called the "equivalent firm capacity" is given. This is the amount of electricity that wind can contribute with the same degree of reliability as fuel burning plant. It is very low if compared to the maximum output from wind.
The distance between wind turbines and cities is of little relevance.

Solar power makes no contribution whatsoever to the mid winter evening peak, since it is dark.
The proximity of most solar to the load is of little relevance.
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