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Are we on the brink of an electric car revolution?
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 13676
Location: way out west

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pepperman wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
Pepperman wrote:
Fair enough. I've never thought that pure EVs are appropriate in all places (although I suspect they are appropriate in 99% of places).


The latest Tesla promises 300km on a charge, which makes it a good car for most people in Ireland. In fact, it'd do for most people in these isles - that'd be a fair whack of driving without a break.


Completely but there's always someone who wants more than that so they'll be catered for in some way. Tesla does achieve great range but it does that using a massive battery which puts it out of reach of most.


They're reasonably priced, considering (though still outside the average reach of course) and there's a 450km version too. Apparently 50 have arrived in the UK so go and test one for us, Pepperman!
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 1884

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pepperman wrote:
Looking at it another way, we have 32m (erk..!) cars on the road at the moment driving about 8000 miles each. Assume 0.3kWh/mile (taking into account charging efficiency) and you've got about 75TWh. For comparison, UK electricity demand is just over 300TWh so electrifying all cars is about 25% of final demand.

This is a good alternate viewpoint.

Using:
http://www.racfoundation.org/motoring-faqs/mobility

Quote:
At the end of March 2017 there were 37.5 million vehicles licensed for use on the roads in Great Britain, of which 31.1 million were cars. In the year to March 2017 the stock of vehicles increased by 2.2 per cent. This is the sixth consecutive quarter that year-on-year increases have exceeded 2 per cent. This also occurred in two quarters of 2014 but had not previously been seen since 2005


The figures I got for national usage almost certainly included all the cars (and probably some electrically powered trains).

Using a bottom up calculation, therefore, would point something over 100TWh.

Electric vehicles do have the potential to provide a material amount of smart storage which can cope with more unpredictable supply.

However, I think the 10% figure is low. It would be good to identify the discrepancy between the national figures and the aggregated bottom up figures. That may arise from a greater comparative efficiency in kWh per mile.

On the other hand it depends upon how many Wh per mile. Looking at the tesla forums it can be as high as 400.

At least we are in the right ballpark on this.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually I wonder if they included airflight in the transport fuel.
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Pepperman



Joined: 10 Oct 2010
Posts: 757

PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
However, I think the 10% figure is low. It would be good to identify the discrepancy between the national figures and the aggregated bottom up figures. That may arise from a greater comparative efficiency in kWh per mile.

On the other hand it depends upon how many Wh per mile. Looking at the tesla forums it can be as high as 400.

At least we are in the right ballpark on this.


The 10% figure is based on some % of the fleet being EV (70% of new cars by 2040). Its also based on electricity demand in 2040 which is expected to be higher due to increased electrification of heat. I like to compare it against the current grid as it makes more sense to me. I think both estimates are probably consistent.

Teslas aren't your average EV. There are three EVs (Zoe, i3 and Leaf) which outsell the Model S and all three of those have much lower consumption:

http://www.nextgreencar.com/electric-cars/statistics/
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It has been clear for some time that Electric Vehicles are the way forward. I still think the estimate is low, however.
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Pepperman



Joined: 10 Oct 2010
Posts: 757

PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is still slightly surprising to me that electrifying road transport can be that "easy" (it's not easy, it's a huge amount of electricity, but I think it's considerably less than is generally perceived).

Here is road transport fuel consumption (million tonnes of fuel) in 2015:

Cars 22.40
LGV 5.76
HGV 6.23
Buses 1.18
Motorcycles 0.17

I'm pretty happy with my estimate of 25% of current demand for electrifying cars (I reckon to within +/- 5%), so the above figures suggest it might be another 5%-10% for vans and about the same again for trucks. Rail diesel demand is 1% of total transport demand so will be lost in the noise. I can't see how it can be much more than 50% of current demand.

Vehicle internal combustion engines are only 20% to 25% efficient so the actual energy needed to move the vehicle is only a fifth to a quarter of what is actually consumed. With electric vehicles there are some charging losses (say 10% to 15%) but any conversion losses from the battery to vehicle motion are wrapped up in the kWh/mile value already.

Note that I am obviously ignoring the primary energy inputs that go into the power station but that's ok because we're talking about electricity demand here, not primary energy demand.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So 25% for cars, 5-10 (for both vans and trucks say 10-20% in total) 35% - 45%. I had a stab over 100TWh which is over 33%. I would be happy to agree a figure of 40% as there are quite a few other variables that cannot today be predicted.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 13676
Location: way out west

PostPosted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
A Shell spokesman told Bloomberg the CEO will get a plug-in Mercedes-Benz S500e in September, while the Chief Financial Officer “already drives a BMW i3 electric car.”


So there you are. And Shell are getting out of tar sands and "into renewables" (and attempting to block the EU's moves to electric cars), though they're big into gas and biofuels.

Source
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johnny



Joined: 15 Aug 2017
Posts: 1

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
Quote:
A Shell spokesman told Bloomberg the CEO will get a plug-in Mercedes-Benz S500e in September, while the Chief Financial Officer “already drives a BMW i3 electric car.”


So there you are. And Shell are getting out of tar sands and "into renewables" (and attempting to block the EU's moves to electric cars), though they're big into gas and biofuels.

Source


A growing trend. My wife works at a bank, and of the 6 charging stations available for employees who drive electric, 5 are filled, day in and day out.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: way out west

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Welcome johnny.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 719
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnny wrote:

A growing trend. My wife works at a bank, and of the 6 charging stations available for employees who drive electric, 5 are filled, day in and day out.


Welcome Johnny, I wonder have you been lurking for long? Wink

I wonder how many folk at the bank drive to work rather than use public transport and why (I guess it is not in central London) ?
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