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Is capitalism facing it's own Berlin Wall crisis soon?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4177
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If so, it will fit in with the Limits to Growth business as usual model which models a peak around 2015.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4177
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/problems-still-there-crisis-worse-than-2008-bill-bonner-founder-agora-inc/articleshow/50813815.cms

This guy has a good track record in predicting events in advance.

Recently, you had predicted another crisis. Do you expect this to be severe, as bad as the 2008 one?

Quote:
I think the current crisis will be worse than 2008. The conditions that led to the 2008 crisis exist, the problems are still there and some of the problems have got worse. I believe that the root of all these problems is that there is much credit.

Today, there is $57 trillion in credit outstanding in the world. The market is just looking to correct the excesses of the past 15-20 years. In 2008, there was a massive correction which cut the Dow to half. However, it was reversed by action of the central banks, which had the effect of putting in a lot more credit. Now we are looking at another attempt to correct, and squeeze out excess.



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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4177
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/05/another-reckless-asset-bubble-will-destroy-capitalist-system/

Quote:
GMO’s Jeremy Grantham, the apostle of ‘value investing’, fears we are heading into one of the great asset bubbles of all time: a 50pc parabolic “near-term melt-up” on Wall Street, followed by an epic crash. If he is right, we face a wicked political denouement.

He sketches a chain of events that would in my view threaten the destruction of market liberalism, or what Marxists might call it the “final crisis of capitalism”. We should expect voters will seek Jacobin solutions if there is yet another episode of gross economic and financial mismanagement that leaves the rich unscathed while taxpayers pick up the pieces.

The 10-year cyclically-adjusted "Shiller" price earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 33.08, higher than it was on Black Tuesday of October 1929. But momentum can trump value. “As a historian of the great equity bubbles, I recognize that we are currently showing signs of entering the blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market,” he said.


Agree with this analysis.

It looks like the bond market has already peaked, the stock market will have a mania phrase this year as "retail/dumb" money floods in and will likely peak by the end of 2018 with commodities following in 2019.

A spike in energy/food prices within a broader return of a commodity super cycle will pop the many financial bubbles, leading to a economic recession or even depression similar to 2008/09 by the end of 2019/2020.
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