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Gas alert as demand and prices rise
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prices have increased significantly to about 50 pence a therm, which I think is a record for this time of year.
The highest price ever AFAIR was a brief peak of 100 pence a therm, and a sustained price of about 60 pence.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see there's been an increase in LNG storage. A tanker has arrived to save the day no doubt.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, though with the recent significant decline in stocks we need an LNG tanker every few days for some time to both fill storage and keep up with consumption.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Carbon intensity of electricity is rising as solar bows out for the equinox, and wind has been light the last few days. Coal has been brought back on line. Yesterday evening coal was generating 5GW at the 5pm peak, and carbon intensity hit over 400 g CO2/KWh.

None of this is good for our NG stocks.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gas stocks still only about 15,000GWH despite a recent tanker arrival.
Prices remain high.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to the prevailing view website, long range gas storage has increased to 10,715 GWH. A mistake I presume ! firstly the storage is broken and secondly even if has been unexpectedly mended It cant be filled that quickly.
I think that they meant 1075 GWH, the same as yesterday.

Looks like an LNG tanker has arrived but despite this stocks remain low and prices high.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For some time, long range storage has been at about 1075. As has been reported the storage facility is broken so I would not expect any significant change in this figure. Perhaps a slow decline as the dregs are extracted and used up.

However a few days ago, the long range storage jumped up to 10715, a figure that I presumed to be a typo or other mistake.
Firstly with the storage being broken, any refilling seemed unlikely.

Secondly, even if it had been mended, the indicated rate of refiling was far in excess of that possible.

Finally the figure "looked like" a typo, note the addition of a single digit between the seven and the five of the original figure.

Then for some days the data was not published. Yesterday publication resumed, and a figure of over 10,000 is still shown for LRS.

My theory is that the LRS has been found to be not completely broken and has been slowly and partially refilled over some weeks, but that this refilling was not recorded until someone noticed, and updated the website thereby giving the impression that about 10,000 had been filled all in one day.
This however is speculation on my part, does anyone KNOW THE FACTS ?
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gas storage remains reasonably well filled, but before any undue optimism breaks out, remember that storage capacity is much reduced if compared to that available a few years ago.

Long range storage is down from about 10,000 to about 4,000. I remain surprised at the sudden increase to 10,000 in LRS a couple of months ago.
At the present withdrawal rate it will all be gone by mid January.

Medium range storage is nearly full at about 13,000. It fluctuates daily but only within a small range.

LNG storage remains fairly well filled at about 9,000, with a generally downward trend.

Prices are high, at near record levels, and may well go higher.
I suspect the gas demand in mainland Europe is higher than normal due to both cold weather and the ongoing French nuke outages increasing gas used for power generation.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The big issue is where the LNG tankers are and whether any are being redirected. I don't think that is on the prevailing view website.

Thanks, however, for the useful information that you continue to provide.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, thanks Adam2. Does the liquid gas in cryo tanks count as short or medium storage? It would be fairly easy to increase the liquid storage, although it is a dangerous explosion risk, unless they run a slick security operation.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The liquefied natural gas is not counted as either long range or medium range storage, it is listed separately as "LNG" and at present contains about 10,000 GWH.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I remember daily consumption tending around the 300 mcm mark which I think is about 3000 GWh (or is it?).

What is current daily consumption?
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fortes pipeline shut down for leak. Spot NG prices at near record levels. Cold weather expected to continue.

Interesting times Smile

63p Therm Dowm fron 74p. 35mcm off line out of 120mcm daily production.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not to worry, they only said -15C where I live..
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
Posts: 12463
Location: York

PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Everyone else is away so I can indulge myself in intensive training. This means eating all the time-expired food in our cupboards (latest discovery is pate, bbe 2010!) and running the heating at 14 degC, thus easing the country's gas supply situation.

I'm probably going to save us about £50 doing just these 2 things.

Fille says I'm mad.

In other news, NatGrid says the carbon intensity of electricity is about 380 atm, target is to get it down to < 100 g/kWh.
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