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Hurricane watch
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clv101
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Well, isn't this a turn up for the books!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents


Meteorologically this is an interesting storm. It's just the kind of thing the climate science community has predicted happening, conditions allowing for further poleward movement of tropical cyclones.

From the UK's perspective, I think increased likelihood of major wind storms is the most serious direct physical (as opposed to economic, migration, wars etc) risk associated with climate change over the next 50 years. At least for the western half of the country.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
.....From the UK's perspective, I think increased likelihood of major wind storms is the most serious direct physical (as opposed to economic, migration, wars etc) risk associated with climate change over the next 50 years. At least for the western half of the country.


That will depend on the rate of increase in sea level and the track of any future ex tropical storm. If a storm tracks close to the English Channel and sends a storm surge up the Channel there are quite a few major towns which would be vulnerable including Portsmouth where the highest point is Copnor Bridge over the main railway line at 27 ft AOD!

Because of the anti clockwise rotation of these storms it would seem to be unlikely that one would cause a storm surge into the North Sea as happened in the 1953 storm. Keep our fingers crossed!

If sea level rise progresses as Hansen has predicted then we could see a flood of migration in the next 50 years as storm surges hit major river deltas in the far east and start salinating and eroding those major food growing and population areas.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Well, isn't this a turn up for the books!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents


Storm Ophelia. We were in the direct path. Some damage to our roof but it's fixable of course. I'll have to look at preventing such damage next time.

We've had stronger wind but not so prolonged, continuous and random. Everything is geared towards protecting against prevailing winds. However, this came from every direction at some time or another. Scary but exhilarating. Laughing

The west of Ireland was in 'lock-down' - even the supermarkets closed, now that is serious. How did people cope for a day without mounds of white bread and plastic bottles of water?

There are now so many of these '100-year floods' or 'unprecedented events' yet still people say they 'don't believe' in climate change, like it's something they can opt out of.

The storm was bad but not as bad as it could have been. Watch this space.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glad to hear that you are OK, Em. Hope you didn't get too wet from the roof damage. Get well soon, roof!
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks k-l. There was surprisingly little rain and the damage is mainly on the ridge; rain could get in if it was driving, possibly not if simply dropping.

I feel more sorry for the poor people in Spain and Portugal, where they have the opposite problem to rain. Any least we expect and tolerate bad weather.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the three people killed in Ireland during yesterday's storm was doing what I vowed never to do (and I mean it).

He was cutting up a tree with a chainsaw during the storm; another tree fell on him, he fell on the chainsaw.

Last time we had a major storm, a tree fell across the road 10 metres from my gate, around midnight. A neighbour and his son got their car out (for lights) and chainsawed it up - during the storm.

They cited 'no-one being able to pass' as their reason (though they can also claim the timber). There's always another way round. I would have left it till daylight, I enjoy being uninjured.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
One of the three people killed in Ireland during yesterday's storm was doing what I vowed never to do (and I mean it).

He was cutting up a tree with a chainsaw during the storm; another tree fell on him, he fell on the chainsaw.


Messy!!

Quote:
Last time we had a major storm, a tree fell across the road 10 metres from my gate, around midnight. A neighbour and his son got their car out (for lights) and chainsawed it up - during the storm.

They cited 'no-one being able to pass' as their reason (though they can also claim the timber). There's always another way round. I would have left it till daylight, I enjoy being uninjured.


I agree with you on this Em, If a tree has fallen it makes it more likely that the one next door will fall. The falling tree will disturb the roots around it and the additional wind velocity through the new whole will adversely affect the trees around the hole.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
One of the three people killed in Ireland during yesterday's storm was doing what I vowed never to do (and I mean it).

He was cutting up a tree with a chainsaw during the storm; another tree fell on him, he fell on the chainsaw.


Messy!!

Quote:
Last time we had a major storm, a tree fell across the road 10 metres from my gate, around midnight. A neighbour and his son got their car out (for lights) and chainsawed it up - during the storm.

They cited 'no-one being able to pass' as their reason (though they can also claim the timber). There's always another way round. I would have left it till daylight, I enjoy being uninjured.


I agree with you on this Em, If a tree has fallen it makes it more likely that the one next door will fall. The falling tree will disturb the roots around it and the additional wind velocity through the new whole will adversely affect the trees around the hole.


It's particularly dangerous at night. The wind is totally disorienting.
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