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KSA Watch
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 776
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:


......

The events in SA are quite remarkable.

MBS could lead to the implosion of the Saudi royal family grip on power, a bit like the last Shah of Persia in the 70's.

In the context of peak oil, this could have huge implications for the world economy and geopolitics.

......


For months before the shit finally departed the western media studiously ignored the goings on in Iran, head in the sand hoping the bad news would all go away. I remember vividly the fruity tones of "trusted" hacks pompously declining to take video footage of the insurrection in Iran being offered on the daily Eurovision news exchange. When the dam could no longer hold and the story literally burst upon the news, it was said that events had unfolded very suddenly!

Expect the same again
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4102
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/113426/if-saudi-arabia-situation-doesnt-worry-youre-not-paying-attention

https://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/113427/oil-threat

Quote:
Executive Summary
China's imminent peak in oil production
The final key player in this story: Russia
How to prepare before oil becomes a LOT more expensive
What to prepare for? Higher prices (for everything real), lower prices (for everything paper), and more wars...


Peak Prosperity articles on oil and Saudi Arabia.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 6205
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The risk of a real war, rather than the present proxy war, between KSA and Iran was mentioned on last nights TV news.
It was also reported that "the international community has called for calm" .

Some would suggest that calls for calm are a sign of impending war.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Direct conflict between two nation states is pretty rare these days. Virtually all governments recognise it as the lose-lose strategy it so often is. We're left with internal conflicts and proxy engagements. I doubt the Iran - KSA conflict will evolve beyond this to there ever being Saudi boots in Iran or vice versa, or direct air/missile attacks.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1451

PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:

KSA irrelevant? As long as the KSA exports twenty percent of the worlds exported oil they will never be irrelevant.


You haven't been paying attention.
First there is the point that Fuzzy made about Ghawar watering out. Is the situation far worse than they have been letting on? Why now is there a plan for KSA to move away from oil by 2030? The ghost of Matt Simonds looms large

Second KSA has squandered a large slice of its wealth on failed ventures. Yemen is a quagmire, Qatar defied it and the jihadists KSA supported in Syria and Iraq have been roundly defeated. Interesting to read that Prince Bandar is amongst those arrested in the crackdown . He oversaw support for the jihadists in both Iraq and Syria and will no doubt carry the can for such failures.

See also:
Moon of Alabama: Saudi Arabia: This "Liberal Reformer" Reveals Himself as an Impulsive Tyrant

Quote:
The two steps on Lebanon and on the internal purge seem too impulsive to be part of a greater plan. They begin to look like the other "adventures" MbS started in Qatar and Yemen. Aimless campaigns in which the second and third order effects eventually turn against the aggressor. In all these cases the long term damage to Saudi Arabia will be huge.

Any day now the clown prince will become king of Saudi Arabia. In theory he could then rule for 50 years. But his country is unlikely to survive another five years of such impulsive and tyrannic behavior. Chances are that one his guards will be merciful enough to solve the problem with a single bullet

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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 6205
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A significant explosion has blown up an oil pipeline in Bahrain, local officials blame Iran for the "terrorist attack"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-41959522/oil-pipeline-explodes-in-bahrain

Regardless as to whom actually did it, this explosion will assuredly increase tensions in the region.
And yes I know that this is not IN KSA but it is nearby and I think that the pipeline was Saudi owned and/or financed.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4264
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:

You haven't been paying attention.
First there is the point that Fuzzy made about Ghawar watering out.

Over hyped doomer porn.
Quote:

.....
Second KSA has squandered a large slice of its wealth on failed ventures. Yemen is a quagmire, Qatar defied it and the jihadists KSA supported in Syria and Iraq have been roundly defeated. Interesting to read that Prince Bandar is amongst those arrested in the crackdown . He oversaw support for the jihadists in both Iraq and Syria and will no doubt carry the can for such failures.

See also:
Moon of Alabama: Saudi Arabia: This "Liberal Reformer" Reveals Himself as an Impulsive Tyrant

Quote:
The two steps on Lebanon and on the internal purge seem too impulsive to be part of a greater plan. They begin to look like the other "adventures" MbS started in Qatar and Yemen. Aimless campaigns in which the second and third order effects eventually turn against the aggressor. In all these cases the long term damage to Saudi Arabia will be huge.

Any day now the clown prince will become king of Saudi Arabia. In theory he could then rule for 50 years. But his country is unlikely to survive another five years of such impulsive and tyrannic behavior. Chances are that one his guards will be merciful enough to solve the problem with a single bullet

I don't care if they waste every penny of oil income or have a revolution a week they will still be "Relevant" as long as they are a major exporter of oil. Relevance works both ways. KSA going off line for any reason political or geological would reduce world supply and that would certainly be relevant to the price you and I pay for fuel.
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