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Ambrose - US shale has made peak oil irrelevant

 
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4104
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:52 pm    Post subject: Ambrose - US shale has made peak oil irrelevant Reply with quote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/15/us-strategic-supremacy-alive-led-energy/
Quote:

Over the last week the International Energy Agency and OPEC have both capitulated on the phenomenon of US shale, acknowledging that the US will achieve unparalleled dominance of global oil and gas supply by the mid-2020s.

What they do not acknowledge – the Déformation professionnelle of the oil culture – is that it will be followed by a Chinese and Indian switch to post-fossil transport in the 2030s. The imperatives of climate policy will force this shift to electrification, Trump or no Trump.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook forecasts that the US shale will account for 80pc of new global supply by 2025, lifting ‘tight oil’ output from 5 million to 13m barrels a day (b/d). Total US production will hit 17m b/d.

The Marcellus gas basin in Appalachia – bigger than Qatar’s North Field – will turn the US into the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the 2020s.

“The US will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come. The growth in production is unprecedented, exceeding all historical records,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief.

The US ramp-up vaults past the Saudi Arabia’s big moment with the 5.7m b/d Ghawar field in the Seventies, and past the huge gas discoveries of Western Siberia during the Soviet heyday.

Combined crude and gas output will plateau “well above” 31m b/d of oil equivalent. “This is 50pc more than any other country has ever managed,” said the IEA.


Any views on this?

I'm skeptical although I accept that I have under-estimated earlier this decade the ability of the frackers to produce a significant rise in production this decade, extending the "bumpy plateau" after the conventional global peak in 2005.

Does Ambrose have a point or is the more sceptical views held by Peak Prosperity a better guide to the oil supply situation over the next 5/10 years.

Here is the alternative take...

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/brace-for-the-financial-crash-of-2018-b2f81f85686b
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 1970

PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It would be nice to know, but I don't have enough information to assess the situation save that i don't expect oil production to have a supply crunch until after 2020. That does not mean 2021 or indeed any time that decade.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5265
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shale oil is very light, and as such has a lower energy content per barrel then conventional crude. It is only being produced in the current quantities because of theinsane financial situation in the us and elsewhere with near free credit, keeping companies afloat that are deeply insolvent. This is leading to concentration of wealth in the one percent, and stagnation to falling income for everyone else, which keeps a lid on oil demand, and price. This is an economic strategy which is trying to preserve the elite through the limits to growth, and is disguising it's effects in the conventional economic numbers.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1453

PostPosted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In graphs:
The Shale Industry is NOT PROFITABLE

US Shale expected to be negative $20 billion Free Cash Flow in 2017.

All of this in an era of virtually zero percent interest rates that has allowed for this misallocation of capital
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boisdevie



Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 213
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even if there are gazillions of cubic metres of gas out there when the EROEI gets close to zero then it's useless.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 9816
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When the EROEI gets below 5, according to Charles Hall in Energy and the Wealth Of Nations, an energy source cannot contribute to net energy as it cannot support the infrastructure required to produce it.

Also with no, or low, net spare energy our society cannot function as now. All the non food and energy productive occupations cannot be supported so doctors and nurses, artists, administrators and such like all face starvation or a change of job to food production.

As the EROEI gets lower fewer non productive jobs can be supported which is what we are finding now although this is being exacerbated by the increasing proportion of wealth be collared by a few mega-rich people.
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