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Brexit process
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 5941
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
If the next GE is after Brexit, Labour's stance on it won't make any difference.
But, it wont be. That's the crucial point. The way Brexit is being "delivered" means that it wont be over for decades, if ever.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good question little John.

The biggest failure of the Tories was to not spend billions, if necessary, on a no deal outcome. The option of walking away is powerful leverage and we failed to do it.

My understanding is that hammond refused to spend money on these preparations and it was one reason why May was planning to fire him if the Tories had increased their majority. If course they blew it and Hammond was afterwards unsackable.

The second consequence of the decision by millions of Labour leave voters to not support a hard Brexit mandate by May in the ge was that the post May 2017 parliament did not have a majority for a hard Brexit.

Given a free vote it is likely that the majority of mps would support a soft brexit deal and at best a semi soft brexit outcome. Without that hard Brexit consensus Mays hands are tied.

I concluded, sadly that by Mays own stupid decision to call a early ge, she had blown the opportunity to drive through a hard or hardish Brexit. The best outcome left was a semi soft outcome which is what she has been aiming for ever since given the parliamentary arithmetic. The Tories have failed to use the cards available but the biggest mistake was 1) calling a ge and 2) the Labour leave vote not voting for May.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Good question little John.

I concluded, sadly that by Mays own stupid decision to call a early ge, she had blown the opportunity to drive through a hard or hardish Brexit. The best outcome left was a semi soft outcome which is what she has been aiming for ever since given the parliamentary arithmetic. The Tories have failed to use the cards available but the biggest mistake was 1) calling a ge and 2) the Labour leave vote not voting for May.


Hindsight is a wonderful thing LB3. I seem to remember you very gung ho at one point about what a smart move it was to call an election that you were convinced was going to return a large tory majority!

Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very true old chap.

I got that one wrong.

I failed to realize how much Tory Remain voting voters would turn to Labour during the election and the failure of Labour working class Leave voters to vote for May's hard Brexit mandate.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Very true old chap.

I got that one wrong.

I failed to realize how much Tory Remain voting voters would turn to Labour during the election and the failure of Labour working class Leave voters to vote for May's hard Brexit mandate.


May lost her majority because she ran the worst GE campaign in living memory. She made it quite obvious that she was incapable of organising a piss-up in a brewery, and a lot of people concluded it was simply not safe to vote for her, because she is incompetent. Since then she has demonstrated beyond any shadow of doubt that she is indeed totally incompetent.

The real problem is that that the tories, having called a referendum on EU membership that the Leave won, replaced their leader with somebody who never supported Brexit in the first place, and who was never really capable of doing the job she is currently in. IMO she should never even have been in the cabinet on merit. I remember when Cameron first anounced his cabinet in 2015 that I thought it was not at all bad, apart from the inclusion of May, and people responded that she had to be included, because there wasn't enough other female talent. Then she subsequently inherited both the leadership and prime-minister-ship by default, because Gove and Johnson took each other out.

Unavoidable conclusion: This unbelievable shambles is entirely the responsibility of the tory party. It could have been done well, and there is nobody to blame but the tories for the fact it has been monumentally f*cked up. Blaming Labour supporters for failing to vote Tory is ridiculous.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Got to disagree with that.

May has her weaknesses and I doubt that we would ever have got a clean/hard Brexit given the huge opposition within business, political and financial elites but a decent majority would have stregthened her hand against the Treasury, parliament and the cabinet.

Of course the primary responsibility lies with May but the failure of Labour leave voters to vote for a hard Brexit was a contributing factor.

Tory remain voters got it, it was a Brexit ge, and voted Labour accordingly. They were smarter and because of the resulting hung parliament we will end up with a softer Brexit which is closer to what the Remain electorate want.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you have a number for how many Tory voters voted Labour at the last general election? I only ask because you have implied on a number of occasions, it was significant
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Afraid not although I did read polling analysis after the ge, as you would expect after getting the result so wrong!

One of the key groups was the swing of 30 to 40 something middle class Tory voters to Labour.

One of my good friends, who voted Cameron in 2010 voted Labour mainly because of Brexit. He is a well off Londoner and not a leftie by any comparison.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:

One of the key groups was the swing of 30 to 40 something middle class Tory voters to Labour.

One of my good friends, who voted Cameron in 2010 voted Labour mainly because of Brexit. He is a well off Londoner and not a leftie by any comparison.


Has it occurred to you that TM's "Dementia Tax", followed by her humiliating U-turn and excruciatingly ludicrous denial of a U-turn, might have had something to do with it?

That moment revealed her for what she is: completely f***ing useless.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's irrelevant what the non Brexit factors were that impacted voters decision on whether to vote Tory or not.

The consequence of the failure of the Tories to increase their majority under a explicit hard Brexit mandate is that the current parliament doesn't have a majority for a hard Brexit.

To be fair, even under the pre May 2017 parliament there wasn't a majority for a hard Brexit given that the vast majority of the Labour PLP voted Remain and around half the Tory MPs.

The prospects of hard Brexit died in May 2017.

A Bloomberg article on Sunderland today was interesting, most folks interviewed were more concerned about austerity and seemed resigned to a watered down Brexit.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Brexit story is starting to get exciting again. May is likely to persuade the cabinet to support a semi-soft Brexit proposal soon which will be sent to Brussels.

That's when it gets interesting. Right now, the noises are that it will be rejected but this could lead to the collapse of the May government.

The bigger picture, as Euro-intelligence reports, is darkening rapidly.

A NATO conference looms in mid-July which could lead to the de facto collapse of American support for European security.

A Trump-Putin summit could lead to further moves, including a US pull out from Germany, a Trump decision to stop military exercises near the Russian border and potentially a future easing of sanctions.

I found the general lack of interest about the risks of a disastrous NATO summit within the European political and media elites startling. It seems that the European political class is in denial.

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

Quote:
The transatlantic political crisis is also progressing in ominous ways. The Washington Post has the story that the Pentagon has undertaken a cost and impact assessment of the withdrawal of US troops stationed in Germany - which is seen as a potential precursor to a US withdrawal from Nato. The paper writes that Donald Trump was apparently shocked when he heard that there were still 35,000 active US troops on German soil. The paper writes that the study is still at a technical level.

Separately, there were reports last night of a legislative draft that would allow Trump to abandon WTO principles in his trade policies. Officials noted that the legislation was unrealistic and unworkable, but the president seems to be pressing ahead also as a means to build up pressure on the US' trading partners. We may laugh at Trump’s suggestion to Emmanuel Macron that he should leave the EU in order to get a better deal with the US. But we take note when John Bolton is dispatched to the UK to discuss the option of a zero-tariff zone. The US giving the UK a lifeline in case of a hard Brexit is not exactly what the EU wishes to see - and it may drive a wedge between EU member states in the final months of the negotiations.

The EU, meanwhile, said it would earmark $300bn worth of US goods for trade sanctions if Trump were to go ahead to slap tariffs on European cars.

Where will all this end? Roger Cohen answers the question in his New York Times column with a fictional scenario under which Trump would end US support for Nato and end up destroying the EU. This is what could happen according to Cohen:

"A briefing paper prepared by his national security adviser, John Bolton, is leaked. It defines the president’s strategic objective as 'the destruction of the World Trade Organization, NATO and the European Union.’ Much progress, it notes, has been made toward all three goals. ‘The liberal democratic club is crumbling under the weight of its own decadence and political correctness.’"

We don’t think Trump will succeed to destroy the EU, but he could cause lasting damage. The EU is at greater risk from forces on the inside. (see also our separate article on Matteo Salvini).


We have looming Trump tariffs on EU (read German) cars, which will cause huge damage to the German car industry.

Plus Germany is edging closer to recession this year!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/02/germanys-economy-dangerously-unbalanced-may-topple-merkel/

Quote:
The numbers coming out of what is meant to be the powerhouse of the eurozone over the last few weeks have been terrible. On Friday, we learnt that retail sales are in freefall, and this week is likely to produce more bad news on industrial production. In fact, Germany is only a whisker away from an outright recession. Over the last decade, Merkel has created a dangerously unbalanced economic model based on massive trade surpluses and cheap labour. If that comes unstuck, it will be her downfall.


Bottom line - German car industry is facing a perfect storm - trade tariffs within months against their second largest market (USA), a economic recession within Germany and the wider EU is facing a collapse of NATO which is the guarantee of military security.

Any prospect of a American withdrawal from central Europe will terrify the east European member-states who have dark memories of Russian occupation after the war.

Economic self-interest and a strategic desire to keep the Brits tied to European security would suggest that Merkel/Macron, once autumn kicks in, will quietly order Barnier to work on a semi-soft deal in line with May's preference.

This is what Berenberg Bank (a German investment bank) has been predicting all along.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2018/03/17/wind-of-change/

Quote:
What on earth is a semi-soft Brexit? To quote the bank, “the UK stays close enough to EU rules for many goods and some services to avoid a hard border in Ireland. UK remainers could support a deal that keeps the UK partly aligned with the EU while the Brexiteers could back such an agreement as it would offer the UK some room to pursue its non-EU ambitions. The UK and the EU could probably find a solution the Irish question – possibly a bespoke customs arrangement.”

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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brexit's coming home!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2277382018955370&set=gm.1867234343357292&type=3&theater
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Duran: Boris Johnson quits amid Brexit conflict

Quote:
The government of British Prime Minister Theresa May has been plunged into turmoil with the resignation of two senior Cabinet ministers in a deep split over her Brexit strategy.

Boris Johnson, the UK’s clumsy and outspoken Foreign Secretary has announced his resignation just hours after The Duran reported that a top Brexit official, David Davis quit, “over his frustration with a negotiated deal by PM Theresa May for a “soft” UK departure from the European Union.”


Looks increasingly likely that there will be a leadership challenge to Theresa May.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks increasingly likely there will be civil war in this country at some point.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Looks increasingly likely there will be civil war in this country at some point.


Not sure what the two sides would be...
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