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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8750
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
There are rumors Gove is about to resign

If this happens, and Gove resigns, the only thing keeping May in office will be the same 172 or so Labour MPs who brought a tax of £25 onnew Labour members to try to price them out of voting for Jeremy Corbyn for Labour leader, having refused to accept the democratic result of the first Labour leadership election.


They aren't going to keep May in office. Regardless that they would prefer to see Corbyn removed as Labour leader, they'd still happily topple TM if they thought it might lead to a GE and a Labour government.

I think the key question is whether a majority of tory MPs are willing to vote against her in a vote of no confidence. I have no idea whether they are or not, given that doing so opens a pandora's box with unknown contents.

My gut tells me she will remain in office for the time being, and the EU will offer an extension on the article 50 process. For her, it is death by a thousand cuts.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
My gut tells me she will remain in office for the time being, and the EU will offer an extension on the article 50 process. For her, it is death by a thousand cuts.

Agreed, I think this is the most likely run of events... But who knows, the political landscape could look very different in a couple of years time.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
My gut tells me she will remain in office for the time being, and the EU will offer an extension on the article 50 process. For her, it is death by a thousand cuts.

Agreed, I think this is the most likely run of events... But who knows, the political landscape could look very different in a couple of years time.


Different like this?

https://voxpoliticalonline.com/2018/07/10/right-wing-labour-mps-betray-the-uk-by-offering-to-prop-up-the-tory-government/

"Instead, he ( Tom Watson) appeared on TV to say, “It’s not a question of Labour trying to bring the government down; it’s actually a question of Labour trying to help the government get a good deal, and trying to stop the government bringing itself down.”

To this, the interview responded – as if it was scripted: “So a government of national unity then – that’d be quite good, wouldn’t it?”"


That would be quite good wouldn't it?
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two thoughts, firstly going back to 2010, I thought it would have been good for UK politics if both Labour and Conservatives had split, forming three parties. A UKIP / Jacob R-M / Boris party, a Cameron / Osborne / Blareite party and a Corbyn themed party. These smaller parties would be able to better represent different people and ensure ongoing coalition governments.

Secondly, following the Brexit vote, a government of national unity would have been good. And it may still come to that. Brexit is too big a thing to constrain by one political party.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Two thoughts, firstly going back to 2010, I thought it would have been good for UK politics if both Labour and Conservatives had split, forming three parties. A UKIP / Jacob R-M / Boris party, a Cameron / Osborne / Blareite party and a Corbyn themed party. These smaller parties would be able to better represent different people and ensure ongoing coalition governments.

Secondly, following the Brexit vote, a government of national unity would have been good. And it may still come to that. Brexit is too big a thing to constrain by one political party.
Bullshit.

Firstly, I note you idea of a three party setup, with the Leavers all being in a right wing party, gives away what you really want, which is for the Leavers to be hived off to the far right, where you think they belong and, in being so, more easily dismissed as extremist. In turn leaving all of the parties, you then approve of (or, at least, can live with) to form your government of "national unity". In other words, a government that will not enact Brexit.

You are an anti-democrat who, in wanting to overturn the democratic decision of the British people by staying in the EU in all but name, are supporting the undemocratic dissolution of the UK. And don't tell me you accept Brexit. Because we both know that's not true. Brexit means and has always meant in the minds of the millions who voted for it, democratic return of the capacity to control borders, judiciary and legislature. In other words, the three pillars of statehood. If those things are not under control of a nation state, it ceases to be a nation state. And, if the people who do control those thing are appointed, as opposed to elected, it also ceases to be a democracy

Just admit it, you are an anti-democrat.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A reasonable summary I think.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is the kind of area I live in. These are my kind of people. They are not right wing.

And if anyone has a problem with people like this, they can go f**k themselves.

I know I could have put that more eloquently. But, I don't want to

https://vimeo.com/172932182
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
clv101 wrote:
Two thoughts, firstly going back to 2010, I thought it would have been good for UK politics if both Labour and Conservatives had split, forming three parties. A UKIP / Jacob R-M / Boris party, a Cameron / Osborne / Blareite party and a Corbyn themed party. These smaller parties would be able to better represent different people and ensure ongoing coalition governments.

Secondly, following the Brexit vote, a government of national unity would have been good. And it may still come to that. Brexit is too big a thing to constrain by one political party.
Bullshit.

Firstly, I note you idea of a three party setup, with the Leavers all being in a right wing party, gives away what you really want, which is for the Leavers to be hived off to the far right, where you think they belong and, in being so, more easily dismissed as extremist. In turn leaving all of the parties, you then approve of (or, at least, can live with) to form your government of "national unity". In other words, a government that will not enact Brexit.

You are an anti-democrat who, in wanting to overturn the democratic decision of the British people by staying in the EU in all but name, are supporting the undemocratic dissolution of the UK. And don't tell me you accept Brexit. Because we both know that's not true. Brexit means and has always meant in the minds of the millions who voted for it, democratic return of the capacity to control borders, judiciary and legislature. In other words, the three pillars of statehood. If those things are not under control of a nation state, it ceases to be a nation state. And, if the people who do control those thing are appointed, as opposed to elected, it also ceases to be a democracy

Just admit it, you are an anti-democrat.


This is true, CLV. The problem with your summary is that the "UKIP/JRM/Bojo party" isn't a natural home for supporters of Lexit. Like, for example Jeremy Corbyn.

?
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
clv101 wrote:
Two thoughts, firstly going back to 2010, I thought it would have been good for UK politics if both Labour and Conservatives had split, forming three parties. A UKIP / Jacob R-M / Boris party, a Cameron / Osborne / Blareite party and a Corbyn themed party. These smaller parties would be able to better represent different people and ensure ongoing coalition governments.

Secondly, following the Brexit vote, a government of national unity would have been good. And it may still come to that. Brexit is too big a thing to constrain by one political party.
Bullshit.

Firstly, I note you idea of a three party setup, with the Leavers all being in a right wing party, gives away what you really want, which is for the Leavers to be hived off to the far right, where you think they belong and, in being so, more easily dismissed as extremist.

Seriously Steve, this may be your view, but it isn't mine. I have categorically not suggested "the Leavers all being in a right wing party". I doesn't help any discussion to misrepresent my views like this. In my three party scenario it's perfectly likely the "Corbyn themed party" would be pro brexit, albeit a different flavour of Brexit than UKIP/JRM/BoJo.

Little John wrote:
In turn leaving all of the parties, you then approve of (or, at least, can live with) to form your government of "national unity". In other words, a government that will not enact Brexit.

Again, your words, not my opinion. My opinion is that a government of national unity would do a better job of delivering Brexit than the debacle of the current minority Tory government.

Little John wrote:
You are an anti-democrat who, in wanting to overturn the democratic decision of the British people by staying in the EU in all but name, are supporting the undemocratic dissolution of the UK. And don't tell me you accept Brexit. Because we both know that's not true. Brexit means and has always meant in the minds of the millions who voted for it, democratic return of the capacity to control borders, judiciary and legislature. In other words, the three pillars of statehood. If those things are not under control of a nation state, it ceases to be a nation state. And, if the people who do control those thing are appointed, as opposed to elected, it also ceases to be a democracy

Just admit it, you are an anti-democrat.

Your third mistake in as many paragraphs, I am not "wanting to overturn the democratic decision". What I'm unhappy about is being governed by possibly the most incompetent government in this country's history, at probably the most critical time since WWII.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
This is true, CLV. The problem with your summary is that the "UKIP/JRM/Bojo party" isn't a natural home for supporters of Lexit. Like, for example Jeremy Corbyn.

I was thinking a Corbyn themed party, without the Blairite influence would be much better able to articulate Lexit. Leaving the Remain argument to be pushed by the Blairite half of today's Labour, LibDem, SNP...
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Changing the subject slightly, I was talking with a former senior civil servant this evening, of course Brexit came up and he though it very likely we would crash out with no deal. I've always thought this essentially impossible but he was of the opinion that now the conveyor belt is moving the other 27 won't agree to stop it but at the same time Westminster won't agree to EU demands. Interesting times.
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Last edited by clv101 on Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:35 am; edited 1 time in total
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Interesting times.


Very interesting. A lot is at stake, and nobody knows what is going to happen. History unfolding.
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
This is the kind of area I live in. These are my kind of people. They are not right wing.



I would bet that if the vote was held again there would be a large majority for "remain". People are starting to understand that we were lied to, massively, and that even the so-called remainers in the Tories were just shills, putting up a weak argument.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:
Little John wrote:
This is the kind of area I live in. These are my kind of people. They are not right wing.



I would bet that if the vote was held again there would be a large majority for "remain". People are starting to understand that we were lied to, massively, and that even the so-called remainers in the Tories were just shills, putting up a weak argument.


I think if it was held again, there would be an increased majority for leave. The arrogant and inflexible behaviour of the EU - all this "punishment" - has just confirmed people's suspicions.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the majority for Leave would increase as well. But, not only because of EU intransigence. Also, because, the first time around, people could see, well enough, that the Establishment and all of its media lackeys were ranged against Leave and that, since the vote, that same establishment has sought, from the start, to find ways of spinning the narrative such that they may ignore the result of that vote.

If you want to see incandescent rage, come to where I live because you wont see it reported on the news. But, it's real and it's growing and it's going to explode at some point.
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