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Are we on the brink of an electric car revolution?
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting piece with some useful info. on the phase-out of fossil-fuelled vehicles here.

This phase-out looks wildly optimistic in addition to being too late.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Could be a disappointment when they cannot provide the electrical systems for the proposed alternatives.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Almost as important as phasing out fossil fuelled transport by 2050 is phasing out most private transport well before that date. It should be replaced by a mixture of working from home and the use of shared and on call lightweight, autonomous, driverless electric vehicles. An increase in the roll out of trams and trolley buses is long overdue.
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Pepperman



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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agreed on the working from home front. We should move towards compelling companies to facilitate home working where appropriate.

Most of the heavy lifting will come from cycling, walking and public transport though I think, rather than AVs. And I'm not sure trams and trolley buses make sense in an era of low cost batteries - too much infrastructure needed.

I think AVs could be of most benefit in rural contexts where public transport isn't really viable. Rural roads are the most challenging environment for AVs though so I don't expect anything along those lines for decades. I just can't see the point of AVs in urban or commuter contexts. There are much more efficient options for urban situations and the peak demands for commuter operations mean that you'll need to have a load of AVs sitting around doing nothing most of the time.
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The battery question just will not go away.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pepperman wrote:
...... peak demands for commuter operations mean that you'll need to have a load of AVs sitting around doing nothing most of the time.


We do that at the moment with commuter buses and trains.
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Catweazle



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pepperman wrote:
There are much more efficient options for urban situations and the peak demands for commuter operations mean that you'll need to have a load of AVs sitting around doing nothing most of the time.



Sitting around charging, or perhaps putting energy back into the grid for the morning kettle-surge after charging all night.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are we on the brink of an electric car revolution?

This BBC article is saying a most definite 'yes' with the addition of autonomous vehicles.

Quote:
The logical next step will be for human beings to be banned from driving cars at all because they pose such a risk to other road users.

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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I expect a steady shift towards electric vehicles over about 20 years.

FF vehicles are still being produced in vast numbers and have an economic life of 10 to 25 years, I very much doubt that significant numbers of these FF vehicles will be scrapped before the end of their "natural" lives.

With a gradual shift towards EVs, providing enough electricity should be doable.

I doubt that self driving vehicles will become as popular as quickly as is being forecast.
No matter how safe they may be, the great British public and the legal system are not yet ready for this innovation.

Child killed by manually driven vehicle-----------"Oh no, what a terrible accident".

Child killed by self driving vehicle-------"my baby was killed by the wicked fat-cat corporation that designed the car. The directors should be imprisoned, and made to pay millions in compensation"

Society is very tolerant of accidents caused by driving, it is often considered that no one is criminally liable "accidents happen" and even in clear cases of driver error such as excessive speed the penalties are restrained.
A certain amount of "there went I, but for the grace of God" mentality no doubt.
I doubt that society would extend such leniency to self driving cars built by a large and faceless organisation with deep pockets.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
I doubt that society would extend such leniency to self driving cars built by a large and faceless organisation with deep pockets.


True.

Some of the failures by autonomous vehicles in which people are injured or killed could be adjusted for over time.

There are going to be rare instances of moral judgements having to be made, as discussed earlier in another thread. But politicians and corporations are going to point to any and all reductions in incidents as a Good Thing.

If overall deaths on roads are reduced, this will be a main argument in profit's favour.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
I expect a steady shift towards electric vehicles over about 20 years.

FF vehicles are still being produced in vast numbers and have an economic life of 10 to 25 years, I very much doubt that significant numbers of these FF vehicles will be scrapped before the end of their "natural" lives.

With a gradual shift towards EVs, providing enough electricity should be doable.

I doubt that self driving vehicles will become as popular as quickly as is being forecast.
No matter how safe they may be, the great British public and the legal system are not yet ready for this innovation........
...........


I agree with you on that.
Part of the transition will be increased driver assist to the point where you ask the car the best route and speed to avoid traffic lights and the car warns you (And gets off the gas and on the brakes) when an animal or pedestrian enters your danger zone. It will also communicate with the car behind you so that car doesn't ram you up the butt. An advanced system would have the cars both human and AI driven ones communicated so hazards such as icy spots were known by every car following the first one to cross it. Hooked to the plow truck it might even improve treatment times.
But as you said these things will take years to both arrive and to be accepted.
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