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Brexit process
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 136
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
[
Also, they're talking about a new database for UK CLP - more £££££££
& BPR....., & PPP...... - more £££££


PPP and BPR.

These are separate to REACH.

The point of these is to control, reduce, and hopefully get rid of the products they produce.

PPP = Glyphosate

BPR = DDT

Who wants to increase this trade?
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 974
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
We could do with a massive shrinkage on the agricultural chemicals sector. Even the UN says that the future is small scale organic rather than industrial agriculture.


Again, don't disagree, but it's not going to happen overnight and in the meantime we've got 7.5 billion people and rising to feed....
If the UK agro-chemical sector shrinks tomorrow, the same products would just be replaced like-for-like from a country with lower environmental and manufacturing standards...
Unfortunately that's the realpolitik of the world we live in....
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 974
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:


The point of these is to control, reduce, and hopefully get rid of the products they produce.

PPP = Glyphosate

BPR = DDT

Who wants to increase this trade?


Nobody, that's exactly the point...., but however we wish it, these substances would still exist in a No Deal Brexit world, so the infrastructure to regulate them would need to be set up..... £££££££
By the time we leave the EU, about 1/3 of the biocidal products will be have been fully assessed.... some substances are already 10-15 years into study programmes....
The UK would then have to start again from scratch......, what a waste of time/money and it would probably also require a whole new tranche of (animal) testing....
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 974
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
Mark wrote:

Setting up a UK equivalent to ECHA/REACh would cost £££££££
Replicating the IT systems IUCLID5/6....£££££


This is no bigee, ECHA/REACh is just a doomsday book for chemicals. All hazardous information is publicly available. That's it raison d'etre.

So, the UK will cut and paste the hazardous info over.

Cheers EU! And no contributions to ECHA. Although i will miss the trips to Helsinki.


If we leave on a No Deal, we won't have access to ECHA - we won't be cutting/pasting anything, we'll be starting again.....
At the moment we share the costs with 27 other countries.
With our own system, we'd have to carry the full cost - HSE and DEFRA desperately trying to recruit already, but these type of people don't grow on trees....
I'm sure you know complicated IUCID is - just sorting the IT would be a nightmare...., and we all know how good governments are in that area....
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6199
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh yes, indeed...

What a terrible waste of time wishing to re-establish the democratically controlled sovereignty of of our own legislature, judiciary and borders

Best not bother eh....?

Yeah... right....
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 974
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Oh yes, indeed...

What a terrible waste of time wishing to re-establish the democratically controlled sovereignty of of our own legislature, judiciary and borders

Best not bother eh....?

Yeah... right....


That's the Politics - my point is purely about the economic cost of a No Deal Brexit...
I believe it would be substantial, but then again, I might be wrong.....
Maybe we would get the £350 million/week for the NHS....
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 136
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:

Nobody, that's exactly the point...., but however we wish it, these substances would still exist in a No Deal Brexit world, so the infrastructure to regulate them would need to be set up..... £££££££


This is exactly why our two votes went two different ways.

I want our farmers to stop using glyphosate. At the moment we have to persuade, bribe, cajole 27 countries to stop using this stuff.

Post Brexit I can campaign for organic UK. We can be a leading light in low impact farming and food production. And here is the salient bit. I only have to persuade my local MP who has an 800 majority to agree with me. If other people do the same, for its not a difficult sell, then glyphosate is banned.

Try getting this past the French agri businesses. No chance.

Once again post brexit you and me can make a difference.

Mark wrote:

By the time we leave the EU, about 1/3 of the biocidal products will be have been fully assessed.... some substances are already 10-15 years into study programmes....


That's the whole purpose of BPR. To record and reduce biocides. The work has been done, we are not going to have to do the research again. If the EU won't recognise the data sets, they can't use them. The same with the UK, mutatis mutandis.

Mark wrote:

The UK would then have to start again from scratch......, what a waste of time/money and it would probably also require a whole new tranche of (animal) testing....


No. As i said above the work has been done on the BPR.

Take for example, smoking. A UK/EU called company Benson and Hedges, have put a product called cigarettes on the market and made a biocidal claim, " each inhalation of smoke kills bacteria in the mouth.

The fags are authorised and put on the authorisation list.

The research and data set via RP4 submission, have shown that fags cause cancer.

What you are saying is that post brexit the UK will have to research again that fags cause cancer- No.

But I say again, BPR is a diminishing market, it really is no bigee.

Biocides is old technology. The data for them was compiled long ago.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6199
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is beginning to smell of an establishment stitch up. We are going to end up with one form or another of this "backstop" bullshit. Most likely, one which involves the whole UK remaining in the customs union for an "unspecified" period of time until a "deal" is made.

This means that (a) the UK will not have left the European Union and (b) it will give the Establishment more time to wear the people down to the point where we are brought back into line.

If this comes to pass, there should be riots and insurrection.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8961
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
We are going to end up with one form or another of this "backstop" bullshit. Most likely, one which involves the whole UK remaining in the customs union for an "unspecified" period of time until a "deal" is made.

This means that (a) the UK will not have left the European Union and (b) it will give the Establishment more time to wear the people down to the point where we are brought back into line.



If the tories do this then they will commit electoral suicide. By the time the next election comes, it will be quite obvious that they have led the UK into a trap - that we are stuck indefinitely in a customs union we have no say in the rules of, unable to escape until/unless the EU decides to free us. Such an outcome would not merely betray the referendum result, but would be quite obviously catastrophic. Absolutely nobody in their right mind wants this outcome, and the tories would have no way of defending it. Tory support would collapse, and labour would win a landslide, probably with UKIP taking quite a lot of seats too.

The tory party knows this, and I cannot imagine they are going to let her do it. They won't vote for it. They'll either get rid of her, or vote her deal down when it comes before parliament.

It looks like we are very soon going to get a much better idea how things are going to pan out. There's clearly lots going on in the background - it looks like TM knows she's run out of road, and that there has to be some sort of breakthrough at this week's summit. If there isn't, then serious preparations are going to have to start for a no-deal. And if there is, then the ball will end up in the court of the tory euroskeptics, the DUP and anyone else who is committed to stopping whatever she's agreed with the EU.

I predict that ten days from now, a lot will have changed.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8961
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All happening now. Last night stories were swirling about, saying that the tories were ready to "dump the DUP", and depend on Labour votes to get her deal through parliament. And this morning?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-government-accused-of-lying-about-labour-mps-backing-her-brexit-deal-2018-10

Quote:

Theresa May's government is accused of lying about claims to have persuaded up to 30 Labour MPs to consider defying Jeremy Corbyn and backing the prime minister's Brexit deal.

Earlier this week, multiple briefings suggested that Conservative whips had held private conversations with "up to 30" Labour MPs in the belief that they could be persuaded to vote for the deal May brings back from Brussels.

However, MPs mentioned in the reports all denied having even being contacted by the Conservatives about voting for the deal.

A number of Labour MPs explicitly named in reports — including Lisa Nandy, Gareth Snell, and Caroline Flint — categorically denied to Business Insider that they have been approached by anyone in the Conservative party, with numerous other Labour MPs also dismissing the claims as being entirely fictional.


This is desperate stuff.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4345
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A no deal brexit is looking increasingly likely.

Greer has called it right (probably) again...
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 791
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is nothing to stop JC giving a discrete blessing to some rebel MPs who will take the heat for him and do the right thing. He is no fan of the EU in it's current state, but his hands are publicly tied by the rabid media who will shit him whatever he says, and the zombie army of 'Tory Bliar' clones who dominate his gang.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6199
Location: UK

PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is what I have been trying to argue for years. This is what we have to fight.

The systematic effort of the Transnational Elite to crush the ‘Brexit revolution’: From Brexit and Trump to Le Pen – Analysis

http://www.antiglobalization.org/2017/05/05/the-systematic-effort-of-the-transnational-elite-to-crush-the-brexit-revolution-from-brexit-and-trump-to-le-pen-analysis/
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8961
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This now boils down to a relatively simple equation. It isn't about the EU negotiating with Theresa May. It's about the EU deciding what it is willing to offer the UK Parliament.

We've been here before. When Cameron went to the EU before the referendum, he must have told them what he thought was necessary as an offer from the EU in order to make sure that Remain won the referendum. And the EU misjudged it quite badly. They could have offered the UK an opt-out of freedom of movement, and in retrospect that would probably have been less bad than a Leave victory. But they miscalculated that the British electorate would be too scared of leaving.

This time it is parliament they need to convince. Whatever deal they strike with May has to go before parliament, it is far from clear whether it will pass. Which causes them a real dilemma - on the one hand, they want to punish the UK for leaving. They want to make sure no other countries even think about it. But on the other, they also want to make sure that the British parliament actually accepts the deal offered rather than choosing the uncertainty and mutual chaos of a no-deal brexit.

I wonder if they have learned from their previous mistake. I suspect they have not.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4345
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agreed UE.

I don't the EU leaders have learnt their lesson and a no-deal outcome is likelier then many think.
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