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Fire watch
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3736

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I suspect the California fires were historically large, but before the days of firefighting equipment they burnt out and so consumed the available fuel. Today everybody tries to stop the fires burning. They might be successful in the short term, but longterm the fuel supply will get to the stage when control is impossible. Maybe that’s today, maybe tomorrow, maybe next year.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 1036
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
I suspect the California fires were historically large, but before the days of firefighting equipment they burnt out and so consumed the available fuel. Today everybody tries to stop the fires burning. They might be successful in the short term, but longterm the fuel supply will get to the stage when control is impossible. Maybe that’s today, maybe tomorrow, maybe next year.


It may be significant that these fires are occurring further and further north into areas with a more maritime climate.

http://google.org/crisismap/google.com/2018-carr-fire
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I will never complain about the rain again.

'The largest inferno, sparked Thursday morning in Northern California, prompted numerous evacuations, including several entire towns.

By late Thursday, it became apparent that Paradise, a town of 27,000 people north of Sacremento, had been devastated by the fire.

"Pretty much the community of Paradise is destroyed, it's that kind of devastation," said Cal Fire Capt. Scott McLean late Thursday. "The wind that was predicted came and just wiped it out.""


https://weather.com/news/news/2018-11-09-california-wildfire-camp-fire-impacts/?fbclid=IwAR36gtySPGlcBAn9aZljuyp-rtK9xpfd9Hf90YpCKMZwC_LLCNkaiCpBcqM
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:
.....
It may be significant that these fires are occurring further and further north into areas with a more maritime climate. ...


Most climate scientists, following the recent IPCC report, would now say that the fact that fires are moving north is a significant pointer to the advance of anthropomorphic climate change/global warming.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agree. Any individual fire can be blamed on bad luck, wrath of god, want of fire safety measures, or unwise human development.

There is however a general trend to more large fires in more northern areas without any history of such fires. That points very strongly to climate change as being the cause.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't agree. The land is managed in rural areas either for the benefit of the landowners, or in a national park, maybe at public expense. Just like dams collapsing, I suspect neglect, incompetence, corruption greed etc. There are also fires set by idiots, hooligans and terrorists. The Pacific is known to have long changing wind patterns etc. in decade cycles, which obviously alters things.

I have no evidence for or against climate change, man made climate change or the effects thereof.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4797
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Agree. Any individual fire can be blamed on bad luck, wrath of god, want of fire safety measures, or unwise human development.

There is however a general trend to more large fires in more northern areas without any history of such fires. That points very strongly to climate change as being the cause.
A note of caution on that. There is about sixty years of public policy (Fire suppression, Smoky the Bear campaigns etc.) plus zoning and building code policies that have all reached maturity along with the trees and brush around them. Is it climate change? It certainly could be. But it might also be the end result of a few bad decisions made back in the 1960's.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Paradise-CA/pmf,pf_pt/40242_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/39.853356,-121.504326,39.629225,-121.826706_rect/11_zm/

Most of these houses seem to be surrounded by trees. However many pix of the disaster show totally burnt out timber houses surrounded by trees that seem to have survived the conflagration rather better,
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Paradise-CA/pmf,pf_pt/40242_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/39.853356,-121.504326,39.629225,-121.826706_rect/11_zm/

Most of these houses seem to be surrounded by trees. However many pix of the disaster show totally burnt out timber houses surrounded by trees that seem to have survived the conflagration rather better,
Yes There is that. I expect that building codes will get updated so that easily ignited materials will be forbidden for exterior walls and roofs before the rebuild begins.
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