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I have been away but I'm back now. Have I missed much?
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jonny2mad



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2449
Location: weston super mare

PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
jonny2mad wrote:
welcome back Vortex at some point I still think we will have a fast crash Shocked
May I ask why a fast crash vs. a long slow emergency which we might already have entered?
I think both are possible but can't decide what events would push it one way or the other.



I think at some point we will reach a tipping point and then we will go over a cliff . I think because of how complex a system we have
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf


http://feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Tipping-Point-Nov.pdf

http://www.jayhanson.org/index.htm not really sure whats happened with jay hanson but generally I think hes right but a lot of people were wrong on the timing. thats about it . I was about the most doomy person on LATOC when that was around . And I still expect barbarian hordes at best . in Europe and the uk added to resource depletion we have Islam . I just got a 24 hour ban for answering why I thought the uk would break up, my answer was demographics and Islam . whats interesting was this was on a prepper page on Facebook that I dont think I'd ever joined, my guess is my response was too logical . they said on their rules we are monitored by the police and maybe even mentioning the elephant in the room isn't acceptable, which is amusing for preppers. this is part of why the uk is screwed like never before
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5266
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The being politically correct requirements hides peoples true feelings and pretends divisions don't exist but if anything makes the animosity worse.
"A rose by any other name" still has thorns.
My favorite is millennial males wearing "man buns". I, along with many other older conservative males, think they look stupid and therefore the wearers give themselves away as being stupid. But you can't say so and must ignore them and heaven forbid you make any comments against them or the wearer. So you have this guy in a work situation that can't figure out why no one in charge takes anything he says or does seriously.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11269
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A few professional rugby players, including some South Sea Islanders, have man buns and I wouldn't take the mickey out of any of them!!
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4703
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An exception to the rule.

Big picture - we are in the early days of the Long Emergency.

Politics across the developed world is sinking into gridlock and wider public faith in our political class and democratic system is slowly sinking into the abyss.

Strongmen leaders are emerging and more shall come in the decades to come is my prediction.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5266
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
An exception to the rule.

Big picture - we are in the early days of the Long Emergency.

Politics across the developed world is sinking into gridlock and wider public faith in our political class and democratic system is slowly sinking into the abyss.

Strongmen leaders are emerging and more shall come in the decades to come is my prediction.

The prediction was that the decline in the worlds oil production (or more precisely total fossil fuel production) would trigger a cascade of negative effects that would destroy civilization. There is also the different views of long emergency vs, falling off a cliff.
As we do not as yet have a decline in total fossil fuel production that can not be the trigger to the events that are beginning to unfold.
Over population, climate change and excessive government spending are all more likely causes for the worlds turmoil but it might just be the nature of human events without any specific cause or causes.
In the end we have to deal with each problem as it arrives reguardless of the cause.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 14527
Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Debt could be the next biggie, unless the climate change tipping point arrives sooner.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7011
Location: UK

PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2019 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
An exception to the rule.

Big picture - we are in the early days of the Long Emergency.

Politics across the developed world is sinking into gridlock and wider public faith in our political class and democratic system is slowly sinking into the abyss.

Strongmen leaders are emerging and more shall come in the decades to come is my prediction.
Yep.

Spenglar was right. This is how the latter stages of life of a civilization pan out.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4703
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, here's my outlook on where we are and where our industrial civilization will go in the coming 15 years or so

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2019/01/20/our-world-is-dying/
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
Posts: 12654
Location: York

PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
An exception to the rule.

Big picture - we are in the early days of the Long Emergency.

Politics across the developed world is sinking into gridlock and wider public faith in our political class and democratic system is slowly sinking into the abyss.

Strongmen leaders are emerging and more shall come in the decades to come is my prediction.
Yep.

Spenglar was right. This is how the latter stages of life of a civilization pan out.

Have to say that although most folk label him "a right-wing historian" the stuff I've read so far of his 'rings true' - and I'm far from right-wing. (He also gets a mention in my novel!)
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 255
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 11:49 pm    Post subject: Re: I have been away but I'm back now. Have I missed much? Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
Hello all,

I left the forum ages ago ... I was posting far, far too much and so I had to call it a day to ensure my sanity.

However I'm back.

Have I missed much?

Is Peak Oil still a thing?


Nice to see you again! I am back as well.

Peak oil ultimately came and went, and no one noticed. Which was certainly a lesser consequence then even I thought at the time. Most the websites dedicated to it imploded along the way, which makes sense I suppose.

I found myself spending far too much time on websites talking rather than doing science, collecting information and analyzing, so I moved away from the topic as well. Recently started poking around on Facebook, began casting about, discovered the implosion of most old websites except here and po.com, plus some refugees hiding in a closed group on FB.

I now have a better perspective, have learned quite a bit over the past decade, and am now waiting patiently for the next claim of peak oil.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The former prediction of Peak Oil may have been made redundant by new technology but Peak Affordable Oil may have been achieved already or if it hasn't a historian in the future will tell us when it occurred. That is if historians still have a job in a future with the constraint of unaffordable and low EROEI oil which will make the supporting of historians and economists unaffordable. Many economists, although admittedly not mainstream ones, are saying that the economic woes of the world are, in part, caused by the rising price of energy. Some of the other woes are caused by an unsustainable accumulation of money in the hands of a very few.

There is certainly more than enough oil left to fry the planet but whether or not that is used will depend on whether a few psychopathic billionaires are allowed to keep bribing governments to allow them to keep making silly amounts of money at the expense of the rest of us. There is now a rising tide of divestment in fossil fuel companies and without money those reserves will remain just that.

The new coal jobs which Trump has promised look to be just that, promises, as coal energy is being undercut in price by renewables. With new technology dropping the price of renewable energy and new technology increasing the price of oil and dropping its nett energy together with future carbon taxation it is only a matter of time before oil largely goes by the wayside as well. If it doesn't the resultant drastic drop in the human population caused by climate change will drop demand for oil equally drastically.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5266
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Your refrain here is popular but off the mark.
Quote:
Some of the other woes are caused by an unsustainable accumulation of money in the hands of a very few.

There is certainly more than enough oil left to fry the planet but whether or not that is used will depend on whether a few psychopathic billionaires are allowed to keep bribing governments to allow them to keep making silly amounts of money at the expense of the rest of us.

That accumulation of money is kept busy invested in doing the things that we pay them for gladly. Which is how they got the money in the first place. There is nothing unsustainable about it.
As to fossil fuel being divested I see little of that beyond the coal industry. Exxon is still a 300 billion company paying it's stockholders (probably including your retirement fund)4.5% dividends.
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emordnilap



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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
That accumulation of money is kept busy invested in doing the things that we pay them for gladly.


Does that include the $12 trillion tucked away in tax havens?
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am sorry to say this but you are one of the brainwashed, VT. The super rich don't invest all their money in small businesses which, in the UK at least, form the nucleus of job creation while bigger businesses destroy jobs with takeovers and the like.

They invest in the useless bits of paper, the CDOs and other acronyms which clutter the financial world; they invest in property which keeps the price of your house rising to unaffordable levels for young people; they invest in commercial property which means that the factory for the new start up takes most of the profits which should have gone into reinvestment in the business; they invest in property which means that the costs of a local restaurant are higher than they need be so that the cost of a meal out is unaffordable for many people; they take a higher proportion of the profits of an industry so that the workers get paid less and can't afford to buy the stuff that they are producing. All that means that there is less churn in the economy and a higher level of debt to make what churn there is possible. They are destroying the very economy which makes their wealth worth something.

I take it you haven't looked at the piece on the Death of the American Dream which I posted elsewhere.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 255
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
The former prediction of Peak Oil may have been made redundant by new technology...


Do you have a new technology in mind? The US development of resource plays with horizontal wells (beginning in 1927 or so) and hydraulic fracturing (late 1940's) is often claimed to be a new technology event and I am always unsure exactly what is meant by the claim.

kenneal wrote:
... but Peak Affordable Oil may have been achieved already or if it hasn't a historian in the future will tell us when it occurred.


Is there a definition in common practice now as to what Peak Affordable Oil might be? Is the UK not able to afford oil anymore? Here in the US we act like it will be around forever, what with SUV sales and whatnot. A thoughtless attitude, but considering EV sales in the US obviously we all aren't quite that denuded.

kenneal wrote:

There is certainly more than enough oil left to fry the planet but whether or not that is used will depend on whether a few psychopathic billionaires are allowed to keep bribing governments to allow them to keep making silly amounts of money at the expense of the rest of us. There is now a rising tide of divestment in fossil fuel companies and without money those reserves will remain just that.


Without the capital planning or ability to be developed within the current economic environment, reserves go back to being resources, by definition they cannot stay reserves. And I agree with I imagine most folks that as far as our ecosystem goes, this would be a good thing.

kenneal wrote:

The new coal jobs which Trump has promised look to be just that, promises, as coal energy is being undercut in price by renewables.


In the US, coal has been undercut by natural gas. Renewables are being built out of course, but they don't scale like natural gas has. The EIA projects that natural gas will continue doing just that, and in the graph you can see the relative increases in the recent past as well.





kenneal wrote:

With new technology dropping the price of renewable energy and new technology increasing the price of oil and dropping its nett energy together with future carbon taxation it is only a matter of time before oil largely goes by the wayside as well. If it doesn't the resultant drastic drop in the human population caused by climate change will drop demand for oil equally drastically.


Peak oil is being called by some of the major think tanks, I caught a online web conference just a few weeks ago, Center for Strategic Studies or some such. They see demand growth decelerating far faster than expected, and are looking for a peak decade with the decade. Barclays as well.

So peak oil production is becoming quite the mainstream idea nowadays. It is just isn't because of scarcity.
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