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India versus Pakistan watch

 
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:11 pm    Post subject: India versus Pakistan watch Reply with quote

Given the rising tensions I thought it would be sensible to set this up.

The chances of full scale war is unlikely but worth keeping a standing brief in case things escalate.

https://www.ianwelsh.net/india-and-pakistan-trade-air-strikes/

Quote:
There’s always risk when nuclear powers start playing tit-for-tat games. Pakistan, in particular, knows that it is weaker and their nuclear doctrine recognizes that only deterrence stops the Indians from defeating them in a conventional war.

Still, the most likely outcome is some more escalation and then de-escalation once the political benefits of sabre-rattling are sufficient.

Let’s hope that is the case.

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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It will probably end with nothing worse than ritual name calling, shooting down the odd aircraft, and some light cross border shelling.

There is a small chance that it will get out of hand, followed by whichever side is otherwise loosing then resorting to a nuke.

A limited nuclear exchange in a distant region upon which we are not particularly dependant, might not be that serious in itself.
It would however set an exceedingly dangerous precedent and greatly increase the risks of future local conflicts turning nuclear.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
It will probably end with nothing worse than ritual name calling, shooting down the odd aircraft, and some light cross border shelling.

There is a small chance that it will get out of hand, followed by whichever side is otherwise loosing then resorting to a nuke.

A limited nuclear exchange in a distant region upon which we are not particularly dependant, might not be that serious in itself.
It would however set an exceedingly dangerous precedent and greatly increase the risks of future local conflicts turning nuclear.

That shows an alarming ignorance of the consequences of any nuclear exchange both to the participants and to any countries or their people that happen to be down wind of the blasts.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I should perhaps have said "would not be that serious for the UK"
The consequences for those countries involved, or immediately downwind, would indeed be most serious.

Neither the UK nor the USA is significantly reliant on India or Pakistan for food or fuel.

Any use of nuclear weapons would still be setting a very dangerous precedent indeed.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Neither the UK nor the USA is significantly reliant on India or Pakistan for food or fuel.

No, but even a modest nuclear exchange in the region has significant global impacts on agriculture through reduced insolation.
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unless we stockpile compost and drop it in the Sahara when the cold arrives.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peace seems to have broken out, or at least an uneasy armed truce, rather than fighting.
A good chance for both lots to re-arm, re-train and prepare for the next round.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/03/02/iper-m02.html

A nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would not only kill tens of millions in South Asia. A 2008 simulation conducted by scientists who in the 1980s alerted the world to the threat of “nuclear winter” determined that the detonation of a hundred Hiroshima-scale nuclear weapons in an Indo-Pakistani war would, due to the destruction of large cities, inject so much smoke and ash into the upper atmosphere as to trigger a global agricultural collapse. This, they predicted, would lead to a billion deaths in the months that followed South Asia’s “limited” nuclear war.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/03/02/iper-m02.html

A nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would not only kill tens of millions in South Asia. A 2008 simulation conducted by scientists who in the 1980s alerted the world to the threat of “nuclear winter” determined that the detonation of a hundred Hiroshima-scale nuclear weapons in an Indo-Pakistani war would, due to the destruction of large cities, inject so much smoke and ash into the upper atmosphere as to trigger a global agricultural collapse. This, they predicted, would lead to a billion deaths in the months that followed South Asia’s “limited” nuclear war.


I was at a conference in Vienna in 2013 and one of the papers (by P. Weihs and A. Robock) explained how a 50 nuclear bomb war between India and Pakistan would cause global cooling of ~1.5 C for a decade and devastate agriculture.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does either side have fifty or a hundred weapons ready to deploy? And if they did are there fifty or a hundred targets to blow up? I'd think that one missile aimed at each capital city would be enough.
Edit to add: After looking it up the answer to the first question is yes they both have over a hundred weapons.
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