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Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics
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clv101
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ebola, while devastating for the communities it affects, is not ever going to be a major global threat. It's too incapacitating and deadly and it's relatively easy to identify and contain.

The West Africa outbreak was the perfect storm of slow response, poor medical provision, cultural reluctance etc - and yet exponential expansion was halted with spread contained.

As an aside I recently read Tim Marshall's Prisoners of Geography (which I'd recommend to anyone who likes to think they have a half decent understanding geopolitics), the section on DRC was a real eyeopener. The place is huge, complex and largely unseen in the Western world. China is increasingly engaged though. Pretty much continuous conflict, with several million killed in the last couple decades, and many more millions displaced.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47907976

Quote:

Ebola outbreak 'not global emergency yet'

The World Health Organization says the spread of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo is not yet a global health emergency.

The Ebola outbreak is the second biggest in history - infecting 1,206 people and killing 764. It shows no sign of being contained soon.

Efforts by healthcare workers have been hampered by conflict and rebel attacks.

And experts have warned it will be "very difficult to bring it under control".


Ominous.


Not really ominous. Ebola (and most other diseases) could be dealt with by nutrition and sanitation, but the west just likes to send rubbish “food” and ineffective drugs. The west is not interested except in the mineral resources. The BBC is not known for accuracy nowadays.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to an article in the Observer today the control of the outbreak is being hampered by "religious" objections to vaccination. Just as religious objections are causing outbreaks of measles in Orthodox Jewish communities in the US.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Ebola, while devastating for the communities it affects, is not ever going to be a major global threat. It's too incapacitating and deadly and it's relatively easy to identify and contain.

The West Africa outbreak was the perfect storm of slow response, poor medical provision, cultural reluctance etc - and yet exponential expansion was halted with spread contained.

As an aside I recently read Tim Marshall's Prisoners of Geography (which I'd recommend to anyone who likes to think they have a half decent understanding geopolitics), the section on DRC was a real eyeopener. The place is huge, complex and largely unseen in the Western world. China is increasingly engaged though. Pretty much continuous conflict, with several million killed in the last couple decades, and many more millions displaced.


I do not share your optimism, I am sorry to say.
With modern transport I foresee some risk of this spreading to the UK or other western nations.
I have limited faith in TPTB introducing effective control measures in time prevent large scale spread.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
According to an article in the Observer today the control of the outbreak is being hampered by "religious" objections to vaccination. Just as religious objections are causing outbreaks of measles in Orthodox Jewish communities in the US.


The religeous objections are causing outbreaks of measles in Orthodox Jewish communities” are they?

Not supported by the governments own figures, nor the judge in court last week who said the number of cases do not equate to an epidemic

Watch this lecture, buy a copy of Dissolving Illusions by Suzanne Humphries, and understand disease pathology.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
clv101 wrote:
Ebola, while devastating for the communities it affects, is not ever going to be a major global threat. It's too incapacitating and deadly and it's relatively easy to identify and contain.

The West Africa outbreak was the perfect storm of slow response, poor medical provision, cultural reluctance etc - and yet exponential expansion was halted with spread contained.

As an aside I recently read Tim Marshall's Prisoners of Geography (which I'd recommend to anyone who likes to think they have a half decent understanding geopolitics), the section on DRC was a real eyeopener. The place is huge, complex and largely unseen in the Western world. China is increasingly engaged though. Pretty much continuous conflict, with several million killed in the last couple decades, and many more millions displaced.


I do not share your optimism, I am sorry to say.
With modern transport I foresee some risk of this spreading to the UK or other western nations.
I have limited faith in TPTB introducing effective control measures in time prevent large scale spread.


Ebola has been about for a rather long time. Modern transport has been available for a few decades while ebola outbreaks have occurred, Even when known contacts have turned up for example in the UK, most of us don’t seem to have been wiped out by it. It is unlikely to affect people if they don’t meet the lifestyle requirements.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rather doomerish report about Ebola on 22-00 TV news 10/06/2019.

Said to be spreading more rapidly than previously and with effective treatment much hampered by traditional beliefs and by conflict.

The disease is reported to be prevalent in much more densely populated areas than previously.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Rather doomerish report about Ebola on 22-00 TV news 10/06/2019.

Said to be spreading more rapidly than previously and with effective treatment much hampered by traditional beliefs and by conflict.

The disease is reported to be prevalent in much more densely populated areas than previously.


Disease “outbreak” reports should be treated with suspicion. We have “outbreaks” of measles which amount to 150 cases, and this for what was considered a mild disease of low risk, so as an example in November 1994, 8 milion children were vaccinated at school (note not at a doctors surgery) with a vaccine which was known to cause anaphylaxis in 1 in 558 cases. The parents were not warned of this. There was no contingency in the way of appropriate treatment should anaphylaxis occur. And it did occur as recoreded in the JVIC (Joint Vaccination and Immunisation Committee) minutes of 27th January 1995. That meant potentially more than 14,000 cases, caused by the vaccine

Anyway back to ebola[/i]
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As the Ebola outbreak in the "democratic" republic of Congo grows, cases have been reported in Uganda, the most recent being a child who died from the disease.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-48603273
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The difficulty with the statements of someone dying of a diease in Africa in rural areas is that they try to bury them as fast as possible, so there is no time for post mortems. It may be the child did die from ebola, but then it may have died from one of several possible causes.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the other hand, woodburner, given that they have just crossed the border from Congo and that his grandmother and brother have the same symptoms there is a good chance that a diagnosis of Ebola might be the correct one. Although maybe it's all just a conspiracy theory and the Uganda government is looking for a handout from the WHO.
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