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Brexit process
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6793
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Labour's latest attempt to stop Brexit has failed.

As I have already said, as push is coming to shove and with one eye firmly on the euro election results, enough MPs are now sufficiently focused of mind to not wish to be seen to continue to overtly thwart the democratic will of the people because they know precisely what will happen to them at the next GE if they do.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9619
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Labour's latest attempt to stop Brexit has failed.

As I have already said, as push is coming to shove and with one eye firmly on the euro election results, enough MPs are now sufficiently focused of mind to not wish to be seen to continue to overtly thwart the democratic will of the people because they know precisely what will happen to them at the next GE if they do.


I have a different reading. MPs know they will get another chance to prevent no deal, and the tories didn't want to unnecessarily tie the hands of the new leader before he's even taken office. It was too general for the tories. It wasn't just stopping no deal, but putting a whole day's business under the control of parliament, which could be used for all sorts of things.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4629
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eurointeligence disagree... hard Brexit looking likely!


Quote:
On the large and rising risk of a no-deal Brexit

Whenever you hear a journalist, commentator orĀ  politician say the UK parliament will block a no-deal Brexit, stop reading or listening immediately. By triggering Article 50, the UK parliament already legislated for a no-deal Brexit as the default option. All the rest is noise.

Yesterday's vote against the Corbyn-Letwin initiative to seize power of the legislative agenda for a singe won't change it. The only - positive - effect it could stop a few more people from deluding themselves. But it does not change reality. The idea behind Corbyn-Letwin was to agree on a strategy to prevent a no-deal Brexit, for example by making it illegal for the government to prorogue, or suspend, the House of Commons.

Article 50 makes it clear that there is only a single strategy available to the British parliament to avoid a no-deal Brexit - to revoke Brexit altogether. But, even if yesterday's motion had been agreed by a small majority, there would still have been no majority for revocation. The EU would probably give the UK time for a second referendum. We think that would be a mistake, but this is a moot point since there is no Commons majority for a second referendum either.

We have been saying for the last few months that the markets are underestimating the probability of a no-deal Brexit. We noted that Sir Ivan Rodgers was saying exactly the same. The Times quotes him as saying that the commentariat had misread the chances of a no-deal Brexit. The reason he gives is that EU governments are not willing to play the extension game any longer. Another reason, more important we think, is that extension is proving extremely toxic for UK politics.

Boris Johnson is right, of course, when he says the Tories will become politically extinct if they don't deliver Brexit in October. We think there is still a chance for the House of Commons to pass a deal, but this critically requires that the final choice is deal versus no deal. It was Theresa May's political and intellectual failure to have ruled out a no-deal Brexit and to frame the choice as deal vs. no Brexit. This is why she could never deliver her own treaty. The majority in the Commons is pro-Remain. No Brexit is not a threat to them. And Tory hardliners did not think her threat was credible. It is true both sides cannot be right simultaneously. But the delusion of one of them was enough to sink the deal.

We don't think yesterday's vote made a lot of actual difference simply because the legal reality under Art. 50 remains unchanged. Dominic Grieve, probably the most prominent and intelligent anti-Brexit campaigner in the Tory party, was right yesterday to acknowledge this reality last night. We think he is wrong when he says that the only way to stop a no-deal Brexit is a vote of no confidence.

First of all, we are not sure that a vote of no confidence would necessarily produce a majority. Many MPs, especially Independents and Tory rebels including Grieve himself, would end their political careers as they would be certain to lose their seats in the subsequent general election.

Secondly, even a successful vote on a no-confidence motion may fail to do the trick. A prime minister hellbent on delivering Brexit before the election is under no legal obligation to ask the EU for an extension. There is an argument that it would be the better option for a Tory prime minister, under pressure from the Brexit Party, to allow a no-deal Brexit to happen in the middle of an election campaign. Unless the House of Commons secures a vote of no confidence in late July, we see no realistic chance of elections being held before the October deadline. If MPs were to trigger this after mid-September, parliament would be dissolved before the October deadline, but reconstituted afterwards. The assumption that a no-confidence motion would stop a no-deal Brexit thus critically relies on the co-operation of a prime minister. If the prime minister does not co-operate, a vote of no-confidence might actually trigger a no-deal Brexit.

We would not rule out that political circumstances might lead a prime minister to ask the EU for a short delay. The EU would grant it. But our overall point is that the House of Commons is not the main actor in this process.

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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5494
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the first round of voting will be very informative - results in about 30 minutes.

My personal and totally unjustified hope is that a lot more remainer MPs will vote for the anti- no deal candidates than have publicly declared. It is a secret vote and Tory MPs are renowned as the most duplicitous cabal on the planet.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johnson massively in the lead on the first round. Unless he royally fucks up, he is in the last two.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9619
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Johnson massively in the lead on the first round. Unless he royally fucks up, he is in the last two.


He's basically already in the last two. He'd actually have to lose people who have already voted for him for two other candidates to beat him.

Which means he's going to be the next prime minister. They might as well just end the contest now so he can get on with calling that election...
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rory Stewart is now the second most popular candidate on ConservativeHome:



From: https://unherd.com/2019/06/what-rory-got-right/

Is it possible that he could come from nowhere to win this? Sounds impossible, but maybe it isn't. Maybe the last two will be Johnson and Stewart, and the tory membership will realise that Johnson is making promises he can't keep.

Just checked the betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

Rory Stewart is now equal third favourite to win. Johnson is still way ahead, but Stewart has gone from rank outsider to equality with Gove.
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 762

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

quote="Snail"]
jonny2mad wrote:
http://rorystewart.co.uk/ I wonder future pm Shocked


Rory Stewart's probably the most poshest MP I've ever seen/heard. Ex-Intelligence service, former royal-tutor, a wannabe Lawarence of Arabia. Now you've mentioned him tho, I can really imagine him as a future PM. Wonder if David Cameron or Tony Blair ever attended before becoming prime minister? I wonder too why Peter Mendelson is invited?

Crikey, it's not that long ago that people didn't even believe in the existence of such a group.[/quote]

-------------
From Bilderberg 2011 Watch thread. Cool
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stewart is the establishment's choice and so everything is being done to bull him up and, to that extent, a bit of creative accounting with the numbers over at Conservative Home would not surprise me in the least.

It might "work", it might not. But, even assuming it does, it will be a Pyrrhic victory since it will mark the beginning of the death of the Tory party.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9619
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Stewart is the establishment's choice and so everything is being done to bull him up and, to that extent, a bit of creative accounting with the numbers over at Conservative Home would not surprise me in the least.

It might "work", it might not. But, even assuming it does, it will be a Pyrrhic victory since it will mark the beginning of the death of the Tory party.


He might turn out to be what saves the tory party after Johnson has finished.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
Stewart is the establishment's choice and so everything is being done to bull him up and, to that extent, a bit of creative accounting with the numbers over at Conservative Home would not surprise me in the least.

It might "work", it might not. But, even assuming it does, it will be a Pyrrhic victory since it will mark the beginning of the death of the Tory party.


He might turn out to be what saves the tory party after Johnson has finished.
Laughing
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clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8049

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
...since it will mark the beginning of the death of the Tory party.

Surely May's staked her claim fairly strongly that particular accolade?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Breaking news: Chuka is now a Libdem.

And Hancock is going to pull out of the leadership, which might make it easier for Stewart to get through the next round.


Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rory is on the wrong end of the Brexit divide to win with the activists.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Rory is on the wrong end of the Brexit divide to win with the activists.


That seems to be true, but the data from ConservativeHome suggests there's something else going on too. Maybe some of them are worried that Boris can't deliver, and think Stewart might turn out to be a better strategist.

I mean...what do you think is going to happen in the TV debates when Stewart meets Johnson. Johnson's problem is that Stewart has a very good argument, and he may well crucify Johnson by asking him questions to which Johnson has no sensible answer.

Stewart: What are you going to do if the EU won't renegotiate and Parliament stops no deal?

Johnson: ????

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9291060/boris-johnsons-tory-leadership-rivals-tv-debate/

Johnson is the only one not to have committed to taking part. Ducking out will look terrible. That's what May did, and it cost her.
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