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Brexit process
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4657
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eurointeligence latest...

Quote:
Johnson’s Brexit options

Forget the leadership debate. Boris Johnson has effectively won. Our one qualifier is: barring an accident. But as that accident has not happened yet, it is somewhat pointless to dwell on that.

Let’s turn to the one big questions that Johnson will have to confront as PM immediately: what options does he have to deliver Brexit? 

We will go through the various scenarios, but it is worth making clear the various political realities he faces:

•the Brexit Party continues to outpoll both Labour and Conservatives;

•the polls remain volatile but they are showing that Johnson has a good chance at beating Corbyn - but only if the Brexit Party does not compete head-on with the Conservatives;

•The Daily Telegraph reports this morning that there are talks going on about a Brexit-delivery pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party;

•the EU will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, but is open to changes in the political declaration;

•it is possible that the EU will state this week that it will only extend the October deadline in the case of an election or a referendum. In his FT column this morning, Wolfgang Munchau says it would be rational for the EU to set clear conditions for its willingness to extend;

•no deal remains the legal default position, and it cannot be independently taken off the table: the UK parliament can revoke Brexit, or use the procedures under the Fixed Parliaments Act to install a new prime minister or trigger elections.

Now consider those constraints in their totality. What options does Boris have?

May’s deal plus new political declaration

This is a risky strategy. The DUP won’t support it. We would not rule out that Johnson manages to unite his party around a dressed-up deal. He would require at least 10 Labour MPs to support it, or 20 Labour MPs to abstain. He faces the same parliamentary constraints as May. We don’t think this is the most likely scenario. 

Agree a Northern-Ireland only backstop. 

This is the one change in the withdrawal treaty the EU would readily agree. In fact, the EU always considered the all-UK backstop as a concession. This scenario would invariably end the so-called confidence-and-supply agreement between Tories and DUP. Immediate elections would follow. That scenario would end up in a free trade agreement with no single market and customs union membership for the UK minus Northern Ireland, and a long transition period for Northern Ireland. It raises the possibility of Irish unification. 

Run down the clock on no-deal

This is a possible scenario, but risky. The risk in our view is not that the UK parliament can stop it as UK commentators keep on asserting. Short of a unilateral revocation, there is nothing parliament can really do. The motions by MPs to seize control of the House of Commons timetable have failed. There is no majority for unilateral revocation. A vote of no confidence might not succeed. And it would not stop the clock either unless the prime minister himself agreed to an extension - which would be suicidal for a Tory prime minister facing immediate elections. 

The risk lies elsewhere: an election in the immediate aftermath of a no-deal Brexit. The prime minister will claim to have delivered Brexit, but the elections would take place in the middle of predictable chaos. Even if you are optimistic about the impact of a no-deal Brexit in the medium-to-long run, it will be disruptive in the short-term. Given the volatility in the opinion polls, a no-deal Brexit election would be a very big risk. 

Confront the EU with a binary choice of accepting a change to  the backstop or no deal

This strategy would have worked better in the beginning of the negotiations than today. The EU never believed that Theresa May would go for no-deal. The EU has a history of adapting its position in the light of political change but, having invested so much political capital in the Irish backstop, it cannot easily drop it. We think the only conceivable scenario in which this is possible is for the Republic of Ireland to make a request for a change - but we don’t see this happening. 

It is possible, of course, that Johnson might try this. The strategy will fail. Everybody will blame each other. And then we are back in one of the scenarios above. 

Extend the deadline or accept a second referendum

In view of the political constraints listed above, we think these are the least likely of all scenarios. It would be a political suicide note for Johnson.

Call immediate elections

This scenario is consistent will most of the above. We think that elections are almost inevitable in view of the coalition’s three-seat majority, the political constraints above, and the hard Brexit choices ahead. If the elections were held in September or early October, we would assume that the Tories would commit to Brexit in October - deal or no deal. We think there is a possibility of an electoral pact with the Brexit Party. There will be no such pact among the opposition parties. Labour under Jeremy Corbyn and the LibDems will not form a pact. Change UK has five remaining MPs, whose future must be highly uncertain.

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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest yougov poll shows some rollback on the Brexit and LD gains and a very hung parliament where the only 2 party coalition possible would be Labour and Brexit party. (according to flavible seat calculator).

On these numbers 2 party democracy is over in the UK
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9715
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
Latest yougov poll shows some rollback on the Brexit and LD gains and a very hung parliament where the only 2 party coalition possible would be Labour and Brexit party. (according to flavible seat calculator).

On these numbers 2 party democracy is over in the UK


This graph says it all. Four party politics. 6 if you include greens and SNP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election.svg#


Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Will be interesting to see if boris gets elected and if so some of the BP voters return to the Tory fold.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beria:

Quote:

•The Daily Telegraph reports this morning that there are talks going on about a Brexit-delivery pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party;


I am fascinated by this. It would make sense, if I could figure out how it would actually work. Tell me what happens in Hastings. What does Johnson do about his anti-no-deal candidates? The whole point of the Brexit Party is that it is not contaminated with people like Amber Rudd, but short of a massive purge, I don't see how Johnson can solve this problem.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6885
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:
Latest yougov poll shows some rollback on the Brexit and LD gains and a very hung parliament where the only 2 party coalition possible would be Labour and Brexit party. (according to flavible seat calculator).

On these numbers 2 party democracy is over in the UK


This graph says it all. Four party politics. 6 if you include greens and SNP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election.svg#

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
And what those graphs show is that Labour are as f***ed as the Tories.

This is what happens when you F--k with democracy
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Recently implemented 1922 threshold rules could mean Johnson is coronated tomorrow. The new rules mean that any candidate who gets fewer than 33 votes tomorrow is automatically eliminated from the contest, meaning if all but Johnson fail to meet the threshold, he becomes PM de facto without the requirement to go to a member vote.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That'll be disappointing. I was hoping that things would drag out a little longer so that we are in limbo for as long as possible meaning that there is less time for parliament to get its act together and stop Brexit / Johnson has as little time as possible to cock up a no-deal Brexit / there isn't time to organise a general election before we come out of the EU automatically with a no-deal Brexit.

I'll just have to keep my fingers crossed!
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
And what those graphs show is that Labour are as f***ed as the Tories.


No it doesn't. On those figures, Corbyn still ends up in Downing Street.

I am not sure Labour even want a majority if there's snap election. If they were to win an overall majority, they'd be solely responsible for sorting out the brexit mess. If instead they are the largest party and need the Libdems and/or SNP to get a majority then they can just hold a second referendum and blame somebody else if remain wins.


Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4017

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:
Latest yougov poll shows some rollback on the Brexit and LD gains and a very hung parliament where the only 2 party coalition possible would be Labour and Brexit party. (according to flavible seat calculator).

On these numbers 2 party democracy is over in the UK


This graph says it all. Four party politics. 6 if you include greens and SNP.

first link

second link


Could you use the URL button for the links so all the text on the page does not get compressed? I’ll delete this post then.
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Last edited by woodburner on Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:
Latest yougov poll shows some rollback on the Brexit and LD gains and a very hung parliament where the only 2 party coalition possible would be Labour and Brexit party. (according to flavible seat calculator).

On these numbers 2 party democracy is over in the UK


This graph says it all. Four party politics. 6 if you include greens and SNP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election.svg#

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election


Could you use the URL button for the links so all the text on the page does not get compressed? I’ll delete this post then.


I tried, but it doesn't seem to work.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I edited my post and it workd ok. Quote my post and edit it to put in your post. Should be ok.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Will be interesting to see if boris gets elected and if so some of the BP voters return to the Tory fold.


Only if tory brexiters aren't as smart as you give them credit for. I'm sure they can see straight through Boris and his flim-flam whatever helps him the most positions.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4657
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://order-order.com/2019/06/17/rory-mania-lead-boris-coronation/?fbclid=IwAR0ehARMGvlHxOT2yBYTuSrRGxAtukIbxGc1zEagcKwN6TWlYh2yUGwCJUA

Quote:
Boris Johnson could become Prime Minister tomorrow, thanks to Rory Stewart, obviating the need to go to any public hustings. The 1922 Committee’s new threshold rules mean that any candidate who gets fewer than 33 votes tomorrow is automatically eliminated from the contest, meaning if all but Boris fail to meet the threshold, he becomes PM. There is a real (if small) chance that due to Rory’s disruption, Hunt and Gove could slip back a little and other candidates not gain enough new supporters for an accidental coronation to happen…


Interesting.

Still, suspect Hunt should get past the 33 mark at least.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:


...... If they were to win an overall majority, they'd be solely responsible for sorting out the brexit mess. If instead they are the largest party and need the Libdems and/or SNP to get a majority then they can just hold a second referendum and blame somebody else if remain wins.


UE such cynicism! Shocked
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