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Heat watch
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7219
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This summers heatwave is reported to have resulted in about 1,500 excess deaths in France.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49628275
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I always wonder how they calculate and what precisely they mean by "excess" deaths
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adam2
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AFAIK the calculation is done by comparing the number of deaths with those occurring in the same period in years without exceptional heat.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It might be worth comparing the period immediately following a heat wave to check if the death rate falls below the average for previous years. In other words, I am wondering if the vast majority of the people who died as a consequence of the heat wave were people who were already on death's door and would have died sometime in the near future anyway. If true, this would mean their deaths would drop out of the average death rate number for the near future equal to the rise in the number occurring during the heat wave.
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