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DNV-Peak oil within 3 years.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 736
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:
I see your point, and yes, there are people who enjoy the idea of society crashing and burning.


Indeed, and I've got no objections to them wanting to do so. It isn't like conspiracy theorists are anything new, the new component appears to be the peak oil/ 9/11 Alex Jones New World Order, global authoritarian order, Mayan calendar, quite an attack on common sense. But the one common factor seems to be that there is a trigger required, in order to get to the COOL part. Doom.

Catweazle wrote:

Personally, I think there are a lot of people who feel that they have "failed" in life because the tables were stacked against them, and they think collapse will level the field. They'd still be losers after the apocalypse, but there would be nobody able to bail them out.


Sure. I have observed this over the past 15 years as well. Other than nutters are often...nutty, one of my major objections has always been the outright nonsense applied within the fields of geology and oil field practice and engineering when creating a nutter scenario. Always figured that if someone wants to be a nutter, nothing wrong with that, but couldn't they just join a church or some other faith based group and attach all their hopes and dreams of doom to those schemes? No need to get the natural sciences involved in the case of peak oil.

Catweazle wrote:

However, not everyone can be tarred with that brush, because in reality the "doom" ( or at least the possibility of it ) HAS changed.


Sure. We've got an asteroid headed this way within a few years, and no one seems to be doing any noticeable research into continental flood basalts. Carrington events aren't predictable, and we've got no clue as to how to prepare for a gamma burst.

Catweazle wrote:

Back in 2008 we didn't know much about climate change, there was a possibility that we would run out of oil, there was a possibility that oil would become too expensive to fritter away on pointless travel, but not many people were expecting world governments to actively replace oil use with renewable technologies.


Back in 2008, we knew plenty about climate change. We knew of melting glacial sheets and higher water levels of prior times, we knew of the LIA, MWP, Roman Warming, Minoan warming, Holocene A and B warmings. We knew all sorts of things about climate change, I am surprised you think that only since 2008 have we learned much.

As far as oil prices, the top shelf analyst folks like the EIA were forecasting $100 oil over the long term, and that never seemed particularly insurmountable. Just expensive, and even when it exceeded that, it didn't stop pointless travel at all.

Catweazle wrote:

Climate change, new research on the harm done by pollution from vehicles, improvements in solar tech, awareness of ocean plastics - these are all reducing oil use, and the goal posts have moved.


True. Pollution was supposed to blot out the Sun and be part of the cause of the great Die Off of the 1980's, according to Ehrlich. But we cleaned up tailpipes, began using more natural gas, new research like you said, and goal posts did indeed move. It became more difficult to recycle the old doom ideas for one.

Catweazle wrote:

Now, anyone who is looking to provide a comfortable future for grandchildren needs to consider climate change - the next "doom" if you like.


I don't make the leap between climate change and doom at all. I do believe that the fear rests primarily with the "change", rather than climate. The geologic age we are currently in is called Megahalayan. It is so named because of climate change some 5000 years ago or so. Sure, there were fewer people back then to get excited about it, but they did what Atlantic seaside real estate owners are doing now, and will continue doing in the future. They are adapting to the change. Seems like a far more productive thing to do, adapt, and isn't that what some doom is all about, cool prepping? You can see it around here, how to low power a house, how to insulate it, throw in a gardening club, and this place could more easily be a sustainable communities idea forum rather than needing all the fear mongering thrown in to somehow justify it, don't you think?
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11883
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peak oil and climate change are just two aspects of the Limits to Growth scenario along with income inequality, debt, resource depletion and pollution. They all interact in unexpected ways and unless addressed will cause the Doom RGR talks about. Whether it comes sooner or later will depend on whether or not the Kleptocracy choose to risk their wealth by doing something about it. So far they have chosen to do as little as possible so that Doom comes a little closer and is more certain.

In the past no civilization has lasted more than a few centuries and ours looks unlikely to buck the trend. This time, though, our world wide civilization doesn't have any where else to go to start again without developing a completely new set of technologies. There will be plenty of iron and steel knocking around on the surface but the coal and oil which took over from wood won't be available to replace wood as the next step up the technological ladder as we have depleted the resource so much.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 736
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Peak oil and climate change are just two aspects of the Limits to Growth scenario along with income inequality, debt, resource depletion and pollution.


Limits to Growth was a computer program, not a scenario. Using the LTG model, scenarios were run.

I don't recall income inequality being part of the program, was it really? Debt as well? Pollution and resources I remember.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

They all interact in unexpected ways and unless addressed will cause the Doom RGR talks about.


In the LTG program, they react exactly as they have been programmed. The beauty of computer programs.

Still trying to figure out the answer about LTG myself, in light of the comments by the best as doing models.

Box and Draper being the folks who teach us about building models.

Tufte being the one who teaches us how to display out results after we build them.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6189
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:
Climate change, new research on the harm done by pollution from vehicles, improvements in solar tech, awareness of ocean plastics - these are all reducing oil use, and the goal posts have moved.

I have yet to see any decline in oil production or consumption.
Quote:

Now, anyone who is looking to provide a comfortable future for grandchildren needs to consider climate change - the next "doom" if you like.

Yes quite; My daughter and granddaughter live in a house four feet above sea level with a dock in the back yard. That house has already had the living floor raised four feet after storm and flood damage some twenty years ago. It is funny to look into the crawlspace and see the finished tile floors in what used to be the kitchen. Whatever happens they will adapt and they will overcome.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 736
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Catweazle wrote:
Climate change, new research on the harm done by pollution from vehicles, improvements in solar tech, awareness of ocean plastics - these are all reducing oil use, and the goal posts have moved.

I have yet to see any decline in oil production or consumption.


CSIS began discussing unexpected decelerating global demand about 6 months ago.
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kenneal



Joined: 06 Dec 2019
Posts: 8

PostPosted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Catweazle wrote:
Climate change, new research on the harm done by pollution from vehicles, improvements in solar tech, awareness of ocean plastics - these are all reducing oil use, and the goal posts have moved.

I have yet to see any decline in oil production or consumption.
Quote:

Now, anyone who is looking to provide a comfortable future for grandchildren needs to consider climate change - the next "doom" if you like.

Yes quite; My daughter and granddaughter live in a house four feet above sea level with a dock in the back yard. That house has already had the living floor raised four feet after storm and flood damage some twenty years ago. It is funny to look into the crawlspace and see the finished tile floors in what used to be the kitchen. Whatever happens they will adapt and they will overcome.


Depends how high you are prepared to live, I suppose, and how far out to sea.
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