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New coronavirus in/from China
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:44 pm    Post subject: New coronavirus in/from China Reply with quote

This looks a bit worrying.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51148303
These incidents normally pass without any serious consequences in the UK, but one should be aware of the (probably small) risk of this outbreak spreading and resulting in significant mortality.

It might be well to review ones preparations for a pandemic.

I feel that the UK may be more vulnerable than other countries due to lax border controls and political correctness that effectively forbids any action that targets certain groups.
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Last edited by adam2 on Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:02 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:56 pm    Post subject: Re: New disease in China Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
This looks a bit worrying.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51148303
These incidents normally pass without any serious consequences in the UK, but one should be aware of the (probably small) risk of this outbreak spreading and resulting in significant mortality.

It might be well to review ones preparations for a pandemic.

I feel that the UK may be more vulnerable than other countries due to lax border controls and political correctness that effectively forbids any action that targets certain groups.
So, to summarize:

There have been more than 60 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, but UK experts estimate a figure nearer 1,700.

Two people are known to have died from the respiratory illness, which appeared in Wuhan city in December.

So, that's 2 people dead from an illness that has infected anywhere from 60 to 1700.

I've experienced more life threatening probabilities on evenings out on the bloody lash
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:44 am    Post subject: Re: New disease in China Reply with quote

Little John wrote:


I've experienced more life threatening probabilities on evenings out on the bloody lash
The worry is not about what it has already done but about what it might do in the near future. Being new and unknown the possibilities range from trivial to climatic. Place your bets.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:27 am    Post subject: Re: New disease in China Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:


I've experienced more life threatening probabilities on evenings out on the bloody lash
The worry is not about what it has already done but about what it might do in the near future. Being new and unknown the possibilities range from trivial to climatic. Place your bets.
Well, unless it mutates significantly, it is going to kill less than one in a hundred of those people who contract it and, by the sounds of it, a lot less than that.

I don't think I am going to lose much sleep over those numbers.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree that the present figures suggest little grounds for concern, but any new and previously unknown disease is cause for at least a little concern until we know more about it.
I also do not trust the Chinese government and fear that the situation might be worse than is being admitted.
As already stated, this will probably end without any serious consequences in the UK, but one should be aware of even a small possibility that it might end very badly.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A global pandemic of some kind that kill millions is pretty much inevitable and it will start as an outbreak like this, with a few dead at first. Is this particular event 'the big one'? Highly unlikely, statistically speaking, but it can not be dismissed on the specific data available so far.

David Quammen's book, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic is a good read for those wanting to know more about the pandemic risk we face in the 21st century.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bring it on. The sooner the better.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Bring it on. The sooner the better.

Shall we carve that onto your tombstone if you fall victim?
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Little John



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:
Bring it on. The sooner the better.

Shall we carve that onto your tombstone if you fall victim?
I'm happy to take my chances along with the rest of humanity.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now more widespread.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51171035#
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Now more widespread.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51171035#


There's no evidence of human to human transmission yet.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
adam2 wrote:
Now more widespread.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51171035#


There's no evidence of human to human transmission yet.


With cases in South Korea, Thailand and Japan, seems pretty likely to involve human transmission. Humans move faster than animals!
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Caspian fever ?
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From disease geek websites:

http://www.avianflutalk.com/china-investigates-sars-like-pneumonia-disease_topic40290_page8.html
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Chinese government have issued a statement telling people "not to panic" which is arguably an indication of a serious situation.

BTW, has a government call to "not panic" EVER averted a panic ?
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