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Gas alert as demand and prices rise
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Natural gas stocks are rather low at about 14,000 Gwh, most unlikely to be an issue at this time of year unless some very exceptional event occurs.

I find it surprising though that the storage is not being refilled at the maximum flow rate. The wholesale price is much reduced to about 1.4 pence a Kwh.
Seems very odd not to fill whilst prices are low by the standards of recent years.
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adam2
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Our now much reduced natural gas storage is now reasonably well filled for the approaching winter.
Wholesale prices are lower than in some recent years, suggesting no near term shortage.

Before any undue optimism breaks out, we should remember that our limited natural gas stocks would only last a few weeks if some exceptional event prevented imports.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
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Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks as always, Adam.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 459
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Our now much reduced natural gas storage is now reasonably well filled for the approaching winter.
Wholesale prices are lower than in some recent years, suggesting no near term shortage.

Before any undue optimism breaks out, we should remember that our limited natural gas stocks would only last a few weeks if some exceptional event prevented imports.


And it isn't as though your PM can't pick up the phone and take advantage of his friendship with the leader of the world's largest natural gas producer. We've got natural gas to spare and then some.

Assuming that the UK continues to choose to not increase domestic supplies itself of course.
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adam2
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whilst times are normal, the UK can obtain natural gas from numerous suppliers, most of then rather nearer than the USA.

My concern is that some extreme event such as a renewal of hostilities in the Middle East, or in Russia/Ukraine would drastically reduce total supplies.

It would then matter very little whom normally supplies how much gas to whom. There would be a significant reduction in total world supplies, and the UK with very limited storage to draw upon in such circumstances would have to outbid everyone else.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
And it isn't as though your PM can't pick up the phone and take advantage of his friendship with the leader of the world's largest natural gas producer. We've got natural gas to spare and then some.

Assuming that the UK continues to choose to not increase domestic supplies itself of course.


How much extra would that "friend" charge the desparate UK though? Free markets and all that!
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 459
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
And it isn't as though your PM can't pick up the phone and take advantage of his friendship with the leader of the world's largest natural gas producer. We've got natural gas to spare and then some.

Assuming that the UK continues to choose to not increase domestic supplies itself of course.


How much extra would that "friend" charge the desparate UK though? Free markets and all that!


Free markets indeed! The US attitude is all about market economics, so you could buy it at whatever price the market would bear.

Is there a price at which the Brits would be convinced to develop their own natural gas resources rather than buy it from others?
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