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Gas alert as demand and prices rise
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 779
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:


Any ideas on whether autumn/winter is going to be colder than the last few years?


Without Dr Who's Tardis that is a bit like asking what is the secret of the Black Magic box or who is going to win the 3-30 at Aintree!

Based on the feelings in my old bones I reckon it will be incredibly mild and damp up until St Stephen's Day and thereafter we will enter a highly chaotic degree day period, everywhere apart from the fens, up until St Brigid's Day.

Thereafter all bets are off.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know that long range forecasting isn't particularly accurate just wondering if anyone had heard any long-range forecasts.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
So the gas equivalent of a strategic petroleum reserve as it were? You could pay for it with a tax on all NG so tax payers pay for it in proportion to their use and benefit received from the use of NG. Managed by the right people it could even turn a profit most years buying low in summer and selling high in the winter season.


Yes, very like the strategic petroleum reserve in the USA.
It could be reasonably be paid for either out of general taxation, or by a tax or levy on sales of natural gas.

Any such storage should be kept full whilst times are normal, so as to be available for any emergency.
To make a profit requires the selling of stocks at times of high prices, and not re-filling until prices moderate. That gives no protection against any emergency that occurs between the emptying and the later re-filling.

A profit might be made, when during an emergency the gas is used, but that is not the object of the exercise.

Nothing would prevent private capital funding seasonal storage in addition, if the backers felt that a profit could be made thus.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gas stocks now down to 15,500 GWH.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MR storage seems to be withdrawing at something approaching maximum rate and actual demand is way above what they expect for this time of the year (going on last few years average perhaps?). With no LR storage to fall back on it looks like an average or even moderately warmer than average winter will cause issues this time.
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RenewableCandy



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Location: York

PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Met Office says cold tonight, perhaps even the first frost.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
Met Office says cold tonight, perhaps even the first frost.



Lit the stove for the first time after summer, many because of a very wet Saturday and a beautiful, though cold, Sunday. Around 5º during Sunday night though.

At 7 this Monday morning, the sun was only just visible through a thick haze, every cobweb visible on the trees and bushes, almost total silence and stillness in the fields. Uplifting. Oh, and gloves. Crying or Very sad
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gas stocks down to under 15,000 GWH.
TPTB don't seem concerned.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where are any LPG tankers?
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Gas stocks down to under 15,000 GWH.
TPTB don't seem concerned.


Let it go a bit lower and we'll start hearing the calls for more fracking. Just wait!!
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 565
Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
Where are any LPG tankers?


There are various live ship tracking websites you can look at but you'll have to filter it down to tankers and the click them all one by one to see if they are LNG tankers and where they are going.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/ for example.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:
Met Office says cold tonight, perhaps even the first frost.



Lit the stove for the first time after summer, many because of a very wet Saturday and a beautiful, though cold, Sunday. Around 5º during Sunday night though.

At 7 this Monday morning, the sun was only just visible through a thick haze, every cobweb visible on the trees and bushes, almost total silence and stillness in the fields. Uplifting. Oh, and gloves. Crying or Very sad
I know that morning. Every fall has a few if your up and about. It cries Winter is coming!! Don't waste the day.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:
Met Office says cold tonight, perhaps even the first frost.



Lit the stove for the first time after summer, many because of a very wet Saturday and a beautiful, though cold, Sunday. Around 5º during Sunday night though.

At 7 this Monday morning, the sun was only just visible through a thick haze, every cobweb visible on the trees and bushes, almost total silence and stillness in the fields. Uplifting. Oh, and gloves. Crying or Very sad
I know that morning. Every fall has a few if your up and about. It cries Winter is coming!! Don't waste the day.



Yeah, it's a short window before winter too.

Am I the only one who thinks of winter being the longest season? Spring being next longest, autumn the third longest, summer the shortest? Laughing Certainly, the calendar 'first day' of any season always seems out of place.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I tend to think of seasons in terms of how much stuff grows. The properly "dead" season is, more or less, from mid November to mid March. Some things will still have a go at growing during this time, of course. But growth, overall, is at it's lowest during this period.

It's why I love early Spring (late February to mid March) because the signs of the end of the dead season and the beginning of the growing season are all around.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4271
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
I tend to think of seasons in terms of how much stuff grows. The properly "dead" season is, more or less, from mid November to mid March. Some things will still have a go at growing during this time, of course. But growth, overall, is at it's lowest during this period.

It's why I love early Spring (late February to mid March) because the signs of the end of the dead season and the beginning of the growing season are all around.

I normally have snow cover on the ground from mid November to the first of April with some years going as much as a month longer on one end or the other. Forage for grazing animals needs to be put up for 200 days even if they are on pasture for part of those days to supplement what they do find outside.
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