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Gas alert as demand and prices rise
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clv101
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Turns quite a bit cooler from mid next week and less wind of late. A week from now the picture will be a bit different. How much coal is available this winter compared to last?
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did you mean coal burning generating capacity ?
If so, my estimate is that about 9Gw should be available under ideal conditions and presuming no major breakdowns, or about 8Gw should be RELIABLY available after allowing for the odd breakdown.

I base this estimate on coal fired generation having briefly reached 11Gw and routinely reached 10Gw last winter, but since then the closure of Eggborough has reduced capacity by 2Gw.

If you meant what stocks of coal are available, I know not, but have not heard of any concerns regarding coal supplies.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
....It will be a tough decade for the technological West but perhaps fatal for the third world population if only because the West will not have any excess fossil fuel produced food to ship to them even if the money and charity is there to pay for it.


For much of the third world the subsidised export of fossil fuel produced food has been the death of locally produced food. Even Mexico has suffered from subsidised US corn imports. The end of first world food dumping will be the best thing for most of the people of the third world.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
For much of the third world the subsidised export of fossil fuel produced food has been the death of locally produced food. Even Mexico has suffered from subsidised US corn imports. The end of first world food dumping will be the best thing for most of the people of the third world.


A lot of truth in this. The shipping of western produced food to very poor countries has largely been to our benefit, not theirs.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
For much of the third world the subsidised export of fossil fuel produced food has been the death of locally produced food. Even Mexico has suffered from subsidised US corn imports. The end of first world food dumping will be the best thing for most of the people of the third world.


A lot of truth in this. The shipping of western produced food to very poor countries has largely been to our benefit, not theirs.
I doubt they will agree with you when the time comes. Their populations have grown beyond their ability to feed themselves and many small farmers children have moved off the farms to urban areas. Cut off the shipments from the west and they will not have the ability to produce even what they did before and much less then enough to support the current population.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the most part the commodities being sent to countries that are described as “food” is nearly a joke. They consist of refined carbohydrates and seed oils aka “vegetable” oils. There is little in the way of nutrition, but that doesn’t matter. It will allow the people to survive in a sick state which of course can be fixed by the pharmaceutical companies’ drugs and vaccines, ALL of which are toxic.

Those countries used to be able to produce nourshing food, until the western greed moguls turned up.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
For the most part the commodities being sent to countries that are described as “food” is nearly a joke. They consist of refined carbohydrates and seed oils aka “vegetable” oils. There is little in the way of nutrition, but that doesn’t matter. It will allow the people to survive in a sick state which of course can be fixed by the pharmaceutical companies’ drugs and vaccines, ALL of which are toxic.

Those countries used to be able to produce nourshing food, until the western greed moguls turned up.

You're out to lunch!!

Quote:
Below are the 15 countries that imported the highest dollar value worth of wheat during 2017:

Indonesia: US$3.6 billion (8.7% of total wheat imports)
Egypt: $2.6 billion (6.3%)
Algeria: $1.8 billion (4.3%)
Italy: $1.7 billion (4.1%)
Japan: $1.5 billion (3.7%)
Nigeria: $1.24 billion (3%)
Bangladesh: $1.22 billion (3%)
Philippines: $1.22 billion (3%)
Spain: $1.2 billion (3%)
Brazil: $1.15 billion (2.8%)
Mexico: $1.09 billion (2.6%)
Turkey: $1.04 billion (2.5%)
China: $1.03 billion (2.5%)
Netherlands: $1.02 billion (2.5%)
Vietnam: $965.6 million (2.3%)

Among the above countries, the fastest-growing markets for wheat since 2013 were: Egypt (up 263.6%), Bangladesh (up 68.2%), Vietnam (up 55.9%) and Indonesia (up 48.7%).

Those countries that posted declines in their imported wheat purchases were led by: Brazil (down -52.4%), China (down -44.7%), Japan (down -32.9%) and Mexico (down -19.9%).
http://www.worldstopexports.com/wheat-imports-by-country/
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boisdevie



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:


Those countries used to be able to produce nourshing food, until the western greed moguls turned up.


Ah the awful westerners. Responsibility should also be laid at the feet of those who bought the cheap produce instead of supporting their own agriculture.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boisdevie wrote:
woodburner wrote:


Those countries used to be able to produce nourshing food, until the western greed moguls turned up.


Ah the awful westerners. Responsibility should also be laid at the feet of those who bought the cheap produce instead of supporting their own agriculture.


Yes! It's always the fault of the impoverished buyer of cheap food! Why aren't those people in this country on zero hours contracts buying organic produce like they know they should do?
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the case of Egypt it is the fault of a patriarchal society that (secular or Muslim) promotes massive family sizes in a country with a population already multiples of its feeding capacity
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, I agree that in many countries, especially patriarchal, predominantly Moslem ones that large families are a problem but in much of Africa the take over of agriculture by western interests, stealing their water to provide cash crops for western nations with the profits going to western shareholders or Swiss banks via local despots is a problem.

The displacement of local farmers and food by dumped, subsidised grain crops from the US and the EU is also a major problem. Western agribusiness companies selling "better" F1 seeds that can't be saved and so cost money every year and that depend on inputs of fertilizer and chemicals is another thing that is breaking up traditional farming methods. These traditional farming methods were being improved by local crop breeding, companion planting and the better application of water and natural fertilizers but these methods didn't make money for western agribusiness so were discouraged, sometimes by charities funded by the likes of the Gates Foundation and others putting Western profit before the local good.

So, yes, there are local problems but there are equal problems caused by the advance of western business interests.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to the "prevailing view" site, LNG stocks have today declined by nearly 5,000 GWH!
This is almost certainly dodgy data, being about four times the maximum winter rate. AFAIK, LNG cant be re-gassified that rate, and neither is their enough demand to use all that gas.

And if it had leaked out, I think that I would have heard the bang from here.

It is just possible that the reported figure is correct, and that previous figures were substantially in error, more likely though to be a simple c0ck up.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Turns quite a bit cooler from mid next week and less wind of late. A week from now the picture will be a bit different. How much coal is available this winter compared to last?


It wasn’t cool for long though, and it’s going to be quite balmy for the next few days, and possibly at least until mid January.
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was out sawing up wood in my fecking sun-top earlier today. And I was too hot.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
According to the "prevailing view" site, LNG stocks have today declined by nearly 5,000 GWH!
This is almost certainly dodgy data, being about four times the maximum winter rate. AFAIK, LNG cant be re-gassified that rate, and neither is their enough demand to use all that gas.

And if it had leaked out, I think that I would have heard the bang from here.

It is just possible that the reported figure is correct, and that previous figures were substantially in error, more likely though to be a simple c0ck up.


The indicated LNG stock recovered the next day to a more plausible figure.
We may therefore conclude that the indicated huge drop in stocks and rapid recovery the next day was dodgy data.
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