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The end of oil.
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RGR
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Joined: 07 Dec 2007
Posts: 2011
Location: Rocky Mountains, USA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 3:16 am    Post subject: The end of oil. Reply with quote

Very Happy

Last edited by RGR on Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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RGR
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Joined: 07 Dec 2007
Posts: 2011
Location: Rocky Mountains, USA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 3:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="John Carll"]

Last edited by RGR on Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:02 am; edited 1 time in total
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caspian



Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 680
Location: Carmarthenshire

PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RGR, this is a classic straw-man argument. Only people without a proper understanding of peak oil use the words "running out". In fact, in a number of books on the subject, and many times on this forum, people have pointed out that the issue is NOT that we're "running out", but that flow rates and quality will decrease to such an extent that it'll become too expensive to support the kind of society that we currently live in. Where you and most others on this forum seem to disagree is the timescale over which this is likely to happen.
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2 As and a B



Joined: 28 Nov 2008
Posts: 2593

PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

+1
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RGR
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Joined: 07 Dec 2007
Posts: 2011
Location: Rocky Mountains, USA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="caspian"

Last edited by RGR on Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:02 am; edited 1 time in total
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Kentucky Fried Panda



Joined: 06 Apr 2007
Posts: 1744
Location: NW Engerland

PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:46 pm    Post subject: Re: The end of oil. Reply with quote

RGR wrote:
With references, none of which will come from the circular reference brigades so common among the American violin players, accountants, ex-cop pamphleteers, freeze dried food salesmen and theater experts.


Well I kind of know who you're talking about there, these folk have the courage of their convictions and have stood up and said so. You can't say the same. What's the matter, get booted off another forum for trolling?
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Andy Hunt



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 6760
Location: Bury, Lancashire, UK

PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seems like The Oil Drum has got a bit too hot for RGR.

I'm still trying to work out exactly who he is addressing with these beautiful soliloquys, and to what purpose.
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2 As and a B



Joined: 28 Nov 2008
Posts: 2593

PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's addressing his own ego.
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RGR
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Posts: 2011
Location: Rocky Mountains, USA

PostPosted: Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="

Last edited by RGR on Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:03 am; edited 1 time in total
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RGR
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Location: Rocky Mountains, USA

PostPosted: Sun Mar 07, 2010 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1916, US Bureau of Mines.

"In the exhaustion of its oil lands and with no assured sources of domestic supply in sight, the United States is confronted with a national criss of the first magnitude."

Gorelick, S, 2010, Oil Panics and the Global Crisis, p. 62

And how did this translate into a timeframe? The Director predicted that there was only 27 years left! 27! The inhumanity!

A crisis! No more oil in the US! This is horrible!

And whats REALLY funny? 27 years later, nearly to the year, Secretary Ickes was writing for American magazine the article, "We're Running Out of Oil" in Jan, 1944.

HADN'T HE HEARD! WE HAD ALREADY RUN OUT!!!!
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RGR
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Location: Rocky Mountains, USA

PostPosted: Sun Mar 07, 2010 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Energy Crisis Alert!!

Last edited by RGR on Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:03 am; edited 1 time in total
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Cycloloco



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 192
Location: London, UK.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 1:22 am    Post subject: Re: The end of oil. Reply with quote

RGR wrote:
One of the most interesting aspects of peak oil, to me anyway, is how claims of "running out" in various guises has been going on in 3 different centuries now. These past incidents of "running out" are usually completely ignored by modern peakers intent on pretending that THIS time is different. Of course...THIS time, THEY are involved so it must be different. Most people refer to this as rationalization, which is quite a reasonable characterization, IMHO. And calls up the famous quote, "those who don't know history are destined to repeat it", appropriate credit given to Burke.
......


RGR,
At the time of writing I see you have given us two quotes from the 19th C, one from early 20th C and one from 1974. The first three are amusing but the 1974 quote is an example of cheating. You know as well as we do that 1974 shortage of oil was a result of an embargo by OPEC countries and had nothing to do with peak oil. In fact it triggered energy conservation measures which postponed peak oil.

Addressing your point in the quote above we can argue that the speakers had no knowledge of oil resources all round the world whereas now we have a good idea of global resources because of the efforts of people in your industry. Our estimate of peak flow rates is thus much better than 100 years ago.

No doubt there are more wells to be drilled to find small extra resources of oil but you really ought to tell us if you believe there is any massive reservoir to be found which would alter the current conclusion that we have already passed the peak.
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RGR
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Location: Rocky Mountains, USA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 2:30 am    Post subject: Re: The end of oil. Reply with quote

[quote="Cycloloco"]

Last edited by RGR on Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:04 am; edited 1 time in total
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RGR
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Joined: 07 Dec 2007
Posts: 2011
Location: Rocky Mountains, USA

PostPosted: Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very Happy

Last edited by RGR on Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:04 am; edited 1 time in total
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Yves75



Joined: 13 Jul 2008
Posts: 256
Location: Paris, France

PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2010 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey, do you know what RGR stands for ?

Reservegrowthrulz apparently, and currently in full attack mode on the oil drum :

http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/6989#comments_top



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