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Hogfish



Joined: 17 Dec 2010
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keela wrote:

Thank you Hogfish for that very sane and sensible explanation of what science can and cannot tell us.

I may even print it out for some of my students - with your permission of course.


Well, go ahead, though I suggest the IPCC summary document might be a better place to start for anyone prepared to put in a bit of time to read it properly.


snow hope wrote:

I suppose what gets me the most, is the absolute certainty displayed by some members that AGW is the cause of imminent disaster and 6-10 degrees of warming over the next 100 years...... whereas the likely expectation is probably very different, especially when we take on board the fact that we are likely past Peak Oil and the implications that has for civilisation.


Hmm. The exact amount of warming is obviously open to debate, given that it relies as much on political and social issues as scientific ones, not to mention the large uncertainty surrounding estimates of coal reserves. On the other hand, the climate system is clearly capable of some very drastic changes over short periods of time (just see the palaeoclimate record). Putting CO2 into the atmosphere and raising temperatures, even by a small amount, seems to me like poking a very large dragon with a stick: it could have consequences much greater than the initial provocation. And in general, since the climate has been unusually stable during the Holocene, we are very well adapted to a very specific set of conditions (local temperatures, precipitation). If they change in any way, our agricultural system looks very vulnerable.

emordnilap wrote:

Is it worthwhile you dealing with MacG's doubts? Or do you think you've addressed them? (I suspect MacG would think not).


I went to a climate sceptic conference last year. It was an interesting experience. By turns, there was congratulatory applause for people saying "CO2 is not increasing", "CO2 is increasing but it is natural", "CO2 is increasing, man-made, but not doing anything to the climate", "CO2 is increasing, man-made, and changing the climate, but we can't do anything about it". This acceptance and promotion of utterly contradictory "facts" with the sole commonality of supporting inaction seems to me to characterise the vast majority of "sceptical" arguments. I went with the intention of having a good discussion and came away without so much as raising my hand: it is pointless to argue scientifically with the anti-science crowd.

To answer one question though: yes, scientists are normal humans just like everyone else. This can be biologically demonstrated Laughing . On the other hand, incorrect statements, though they do slip through the net of peer review sometimes, are usually picked up fairly soon. If you think that there are any "alarmist" scientists out there deliberately overstating the case in order to get more research council funding, you might consider that anyone with the numerical skills and ethical flexibility to choose to do this could be making a hell of a lot more money in banking and finance, where that combination of qualities is highly valued.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks again Hogfish.

MacG, we know you're lurking.
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Andy Hunt



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hogfish wrote:

I went to a climate sceptic conference last year. It was an interesting experience. By turns, there was congratulatory applause for people saying "CO2 is not increasing", "CO2 is increasing but it is natural", "CO2 is increasing, man-made, but not doing anything to the climate", "CO2 is increasing, man-made, and changing the climate, but we can't do anything about it". This acceptance and promotion of utterly contradictory "facts" with the sole commonality of supporting inaction seems to me to characterise the vast majority of "sceptical" arguments. I went with the intention of having a good discussion and came away without so much as raising my hand: it is pointless to argue scientifically with the anti-science crowd.


A perfect example of 'groupthink', you might say.
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JohnB



Joined: 22 May 2006
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Location: Beautiful sunny West Wales!

PostPosted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does this make sense?
Quote:
By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 21st December 2010

There were two silent calls, followed by a message left on my answerphone. She had a soft, gentle voice and a mid-Wales accent. You are a liar Mr Monbiot. You and James Hansen and all your lying colleagues. Im going to make you pay back the money my son gave to your causes. Its minus 18 degrees and my pipes have frozen. You liar. Is this your global warming?. Shes not going to like the answer, and nor are you. It may be yes.

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2010/12/20/cold-burn/
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Bandidoz
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also seen this:
http://www.thebmc.co.uk/Feature.aspx?id=4064
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Andy Hunt



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 21, 2010 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bandidoz wrote:
Also seen this:
http://www.thebmc.co.uk/Feature.aspx?id=4064


Thanks for that - could be just what we need to focus policymakers' minds.
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Eternal Sunshine wrote:

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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MacG: you might like to bookmark this page.
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Cabrone



Joined: 05 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:


So in the places where the citizens need most convincing that warming is really happening the temps are actually dropping.

I can only conclude that mother nature has a really wicked sense of humour.
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
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Location: York

PostPosted: Wed Dec 22, 2010 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love HF's term "ethical flexibility" Laughing Laughing Laughing

I can see it coming in very useful in future conversations...
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 25, 2010 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A Christmas message from Joe Romm http://is.gd/jryVM
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 26, 2010 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is all very well but it had an advert for a SUV next to it Shocked !!
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sun Dec 26, 2010 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Strange - when I click the link I get ads for either a subscription football tv channel or a masters degree in environmental policy Smile
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Keela



Joined: 05 Sep 2006
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Location: N.Ireland

PostPosted: Sun Dec 26, 2010 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The ads I get are:

Ad for a Climate Science and Policy Master's Degree
Ad for a book called Straight Up
And a circular picture of a tree hugger Best of Green award.....
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contadino



Joined: 05 Apr 2007
Posts: 1268
Location: Puglia, Italia

PostPosted: Sun Dec 26, 2010 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I must be doing something right, as the advert spaces are just grey boxes. Very Happy
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biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 26, 2010 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keela wrote:
The ads I get are:
Ad for a book called Straight Up
Well that's a book by Joe Romm whose site it is. It's a good book, a sort of edited best of his blogs from the last couple of years.
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