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Why world food prices may keep climbing
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whilst everyone has been observing the plummeting oil price, wheat prices have increased noticeably to $6-50, some way below previous records but still a significant increase on a few months ago.

I suspect that a certain amount of panic buying may be underway in Russia, due to fears that the Rouble may continue to loose value. To a Russian "women in the street" a sack or two of wheat or flour might be more useful than a supply of rapidly depreciating paper money.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheat is only ~50% higher than it was 35 years ago!

Here's the last year:



http://www.hgca.com/markets.aspx
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whilst I remain concerned about the price and availability of wheat* in the longer term, there seems to be little risk of any crisis in the near term.
Prices are now at about $4.50, a low for the year and about half the price reached a few years ago.
It is always well to keep a stock of food for any emergency such as extreme weather, industrial accident, or localised shortages.

In the longer term, a growing population, climate change, and FF depletion remain serious concerns.

*And other staple foods. Many staple foods are interchangeable, at least to an extent. If wheat be scarce or costly, then rice, barley, maize, or potatoes may be eaten instead, but the price of these foods would then tend to rise. The wheat price is therefore not JUST the wheat price but is ALSO a good indication of food prices in general.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It tends to link to energy prices through fertiliser.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Whilst I remain concerned about the price and availability of wheat* in the longer term, there seems to be little risk of any crisis in the near term.

One of the contributory causes of the Syrian and Yemeni wars was the spike in wheat prices resulting from the export restrictions imposed by Russia following a hot summer.
Next summer might, or might not be hot but the probability of extreme weather events increases as the planet warms.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wheat prices are currently at highs for the year, though some way below previous peaks.
USA wheat for example is at $5-50 a bushel, a record for the year but some way below records for previous years.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The current and near future concerns seem to be not about wheat and products made therefrom, but about cream and butter.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40506573

There is no clear DIRECT link between wheat and butter prices, though there is a longer term indirect link, in that a lot of land could be used to grow wheat, or to graze cattle.
I am aware of one farmer who having substantially lost two grain crops one to drought and one to rot from flooding, is seriously considering going back into dairy farming.
They have just purchased extra land in a high flood risk zone, with a view to use for summer grazing, moving the cattle to higher ground at times of flood.

Demand for butter has increased due to health concerns re synthetic spreads.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

People should read this. With any luck they will be scared to eat butter and so the price pressure would reduce. That article is of course full of vested interest crapspeak, and if anyone followed the advice their health would suffer.
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
People should read this. With any luck they will be scared to eat butter and so the price pressure would reduce. That article is of course full of vested interest crapspeak, and if anyone followed the advice their health would suffer.


Oh that old canard about cholesterol again

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/books-by-dr-malcolm-kendrick/the-great-cholesterol-con/
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
People should read this. With any luck they will be scared to eat butter and so the price pressure would reduce. That article is of course full of vested interest crapspeak, and if anyone followed the advice their health would suffer.


Coconut oil is just one in a number of useful ingredients in any food preparation area and, like all others, to be used in moderation.

The second photograph in the article is particularly misleading: not many could afford to to deep-fry in coconut oil and the coconut taste of the meal would be overwhelming.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
woodburner wrote:
People should read this. With any luck they will be scared to eat butter and so the price pressure would reduce. That article is of course full of vested interest crapspeak, and if anyone followed the advice their health would suffer.


Oh that old canard about cholesterol again

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/books-by-dr-malcolm-kendrick/the-great-cholesterol-con/


Read it, I bought several spare copies to lend to the poor bu**ers who believed the statins' crap.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most people unfortunately seem to have accepted world governments' line that the 2 deg C rise in temperature will be manageable. What they don't see is that ice sheets are melting at the current 1 deg C rise and that as temperatures rise the rate of melting will increase and Hansen's claim of a 7 metre sea level rise by the end of the century becomes more likely. Also rising temperatures will cause even more instability, extreme weather and chaos in the world and this will have a drastic effect of food production.

The rise in sea level will effect the world's main food growing areas: the deltas of the Mekong, Nile, Ganges. Yellow, Yangtze and other Chinese rivers will all go under water resulting in major population movements and complete loss of those food growing areas. In the UK the Fenland food growing areas right down to Cambridge will go under water together with the south coast from The New Forest in the West to Brighton in the East. this is a major vegetable growing area for the UK with large numbers of greenhouse based enterprises.

The idea that food will remain importable when these losses to food production even start to manifest themselves is laughable and the idea that we should allow our population to increase when we already import nearly 50% of our food is even more so. Even Angela is beginning to panic at the thought of 100 million Africans entering Europe in the future. They will be just the start of it!
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