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British nuclear industry needs overhaul before it can expand
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biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2011 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Joe Romm has posted an article about nuclear costs. He concludes "New nukes have gone from too cheap to meter to too expensive to matter for the foreseeable future."

http://climateprogress.org/2011/04/06/does-nuclear-power-have-a-negative-learning-curve/
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since 1975, according to Mr Romm, nuclear has increased in real terms cost by a factor of 5.

It's a pity to ruin a story with a few facts. An off-the-cuff example.

In 1968 Wylfa A was completed at a cost of £170 m. By 1975 that would have inflated to £296 m, and by 2011 to £2271 m.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/historic-inflation-calculator

Wylfa was designed to be 1 GW sent out (revised to 800 MW because of the T2 problem, but now back to 1,000 MW). so lets say that's £2.838m/MW sent out.

Horizon propose to build a new Wylfa B, and Oldbury B for £15 bn. The two schemes will have three reactors each of 1.2 GW sent out. So a total of 7.2 GW for £15 bn. That's £2.08m/MW sent out.

So actually, nuclear has gone down in cost.

Even better: Wylfa was designed for 40 years, Wylfa B for 60. Accounting for that shows Wylfa A at £71/MW pa and Wylfa B at £35/MW pa.

Let's now have a look at some typical offshore wind costs.

The first (I think) two offshore wind farms of any significance were North Hoyle (60MW, £81m)and Burbo Bank (90MW £120m). About £1.35m/MW dated circa 2003-6)

RWE propose to build the Gwynt y Mawr windfarm off the North Wales coast, a few miles along from those previous two. 576 MW at a cost of £2b. That's £3.4m/MW.

So wind has soared in cost!

As for PV - great - why then does it require a subsidy of nearly £500.MWh?
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
Posts: 12469
Location: York

PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you'll find that you're not comparig like with like: the first wind-farms were in relatively shallow waters, and firms are now going further afield. This would naturally add to the real-terms cost, but not because te tech itself has got more expensive.

And WTs don't cost a fortune to decommission: your nuclear costs don't include that.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gwynt y Mawr is also a shallow water site. But rather than some tiresome spat as to whether or not it's shallow or not, as another example, which is certainly shallow water, we have Rhyl Flats, just along the road from North Hoyle. 90 MW for £198 m; that's £2.2 m/MWh.

As for allegation about not including nuclear decommissioning costs. The figures I quoted for Wylfa A did not include decommissioning; the figures for Wylfa B do. Thanks for 'asking'.

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