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General Election Dec 2019 thread
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 11122
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:53 am    Post subject: General Election Dec 2019 thread Reply with quote

Ladies and Gentlemen, your opening predictions please!

Mine:

This election will end up being viewed as the third great political shock the established pundits didn't see coming. Brexit, Trump, Corbyn. There will be no tory-bxp pact. Tories will stand in all mainland seats, and the BXP will stand in almost all of them.

Result will be the tories as the largest party, but at least 30 seats short of a majority. Labour will need both the SNP and the LDs to form a majority, and will do a deal with both of them to put Corbyn in Downing Street. Three referendums will follow - the first on brexit, the second on electoral reform and the third on Scottish independence.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Tories under Johnson are selling out the Leave vote no less than Labour would. Johnson's Brexit "deal" is little more than May's surrender treaty with lipstick on.

The only party that is currently in the pubic consciousness right now that is advocating a WTO Brexit, where we start from a position of total return of democratic sovereignty, is the Brexit party.

However, Johnson's administration has made it clear, yesterday and today, that no pact will be formed with the Brexit party in the election. This, in turn, could lead to the leave voted being split. But, not in terms of allowing both Brexit party and Tory party MPs to go to Westminster (that would require a non-aggression pact). Rather, in terms of stopping either of them getting a constituency majority and so allowing a Labour or Lib Dem candidate to win (Yes, I am aware of that UE). In turn, allowing a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem coalition to assume power even though they may actually have less than 50% of the popular vote countrywide.

If the above does come to pass and this country does not get its sovereignty returned, I predict troops being used on the streets of this nation to keep the peace within a decade.

In other words, I predict significant bloodshed at some point.

But, then, I was probably predicting that anyway.


Last edited by Little John on Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:36 am; edited 4 times in total
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This election will result in the UK getting it's economy screwed over and there will be a requirement for the ruling class to put troops on the streets of this nation to keep the peace within two years
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:45 am    Post subject: Re: General Election Dec 2019 thread Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Result will be the tories as the largest party, but at least 30 seats short of a majority. Labour will need both the SNP and the LDs to form a majority, and will do a deal with both of them to put Corbyn in Downing Street. Three referendums will follow - the first on brexit, the second on electoral reform and the third on Scottish independence.

The SNP might support Corbyn, the price would be legally binding IndyRef2. The LibDems, no chance.

I think the most likely outcome is a badly hung parliament with neither Labour or Tories able to form a majority. 2nd most likely is a modest Tory majority. I don't expect BP get more than 10 seats. LibDem likely over 40.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:06 pm    Post subject: Re: General Election Dec 2019 thread Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Result will be the tories as the largest party, but at least 30 seats short of a majority. Labour will need both the SNP and the LDs to form a majority, and will do a deal with both of them to put Corbyn in Downing Street. Three referendums will follow - the first on brexit, the second on electoral reform and the third on Scottish independence.

The SNP might support Corbyn, the price would be legally binding IndyRef2. The LibDems, no chance.

I think the most likely outcome is a badly hung parliament with neither Labour or Tories able to form a majority. 2nd most likely is a modest Tory majority. I don't expect BP get more than 10 seats. LibDem likely over 40.


If the tories+bxp+dup are short of a majority then the libdems will have no choice but to support Corbyn. He'll be offering a referendum that remain will probably win, and if Swinson refuses to go for this then we're looking at a potential no deal. If the libdems let no deal happen in that situation, then they are completely finished as a political party.

I believe they will demand electoral reform as the price of supporting Corbyn, and he will agree.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
The Tories under Johnson are selling out the Leave vote no less than Labour would. Johnson's Brexit "deal" is little more than May's surrender treaty with lipstick on.

The only party that is currently in the pubic consciousness right now that is advocating a WTO Brexit, where we start from a position of total return of democratic sovereignty, is the Brexit party.

However, Johnson's administration has made it clear, yesterday and today, that no pact will be formed with the Brexit party in the election. This, in turn, could lead to the leave voted being split. But, not in terms of allowing both Brexit party and Tory party MPs to go to Westminster (that would require a non-aggression pact). Rather, in terms of stopping either of them getting a constituency majority and so allowing a Labour or Lib Dem candidate to win (Yes, I am aware of that UE). In turn, allowing a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem coalition to assume power even though they may actually have less than 50% of the popular vote countrywide.


There is a possibility that the brexit party starts making ground on the tories. This would happen if scrutiny of Johnson's deal leads more leave voters to agree with your assessment of the deal. This could be a nightmare scenario for the tories. If the brexit party starts nudging its way into the high teens then Corbyn might not even need the libdems in a confidence and supply agreement. Instead we'd be heading towards a formal coalition between labour and the SNP, or even a bizarre labour majority on the smallest vote share for a winning party in any UK election ever.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
The Tories under Johnson are selling out the Leave vote no less than Labour would. Johnson's Brexit "deal" is little more than May's surrender treaty with lipstick on.

The only party that is currently in the pubic consciousness right now that is advocating a WTO Brexit, where we start from a position of total return of democratic sovereignty, is the Brexit party.

However, Johnson's administration has made it clear, yesterday and today, that no pact will be formed with the Brexit party in the election. This, in turn, could lead to the leave voted being split. But, not in terms of allowing both Brexit party and Tory party MPs to go to Westminster (that would require a non-aggression pact). Rather, in terms of stopping either of them getting a constituency majority and so allowing a Labour or Lib Dem candidate to win (Yes, I am aware of that UE). In turn, allowing a Labour/SNP/Lib Dem coalition to assume power even though they may actually have less than 50% of the popular vote countrywide.


There is a possibility that the brexit party starts making ground on the tories. This would happen if scrutiny of Johnson's deal leads more leave voters to agree with your assessment of the deal. This could be a nightmare scenario for the tories. If the brexit party starts nudging its way into the high teens then Corbyn might not even need the libdems in a confidence and supply agreement. Instead we'd be heading towards a formal coalition between labour and the SNP, or even a bizarre labour majority on the smallest vote share for a winning party in any UK election ever.
And you think that does not end in bloodshed?
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There maybe bloodshed as there was a few years ago when Jo Cox was murdered. It will result in widespread revulsion and will not be repeated.

The last time a UK government held over 50% of the popular vote was 1935
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Little John



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You have not got the faintest clue about the shit storm that is coming.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This talk of widespread bloodshed is a broken record now. Please stop repeating it, it isn't going to happen unless no deal brexit happens (and even then 2-3 years down the road).

The result will be a hung parliament with labour having around 5 more seats than the tories. They won't get a coalition but the snp and libdems will go into a confidence and supply agreement that also requires a 2nd ref after a short renegotiation period which will lead to a stable-enough government for now.

1 year on it'll fall apart and they'll be another general election in the first half of 2021. Another hung parliament although a proper coalition is formed this time (lab-lib no corbyn) and there'll be parliamentary reforms regarding voting method and how we govern, with more split between the executive and the legislature and more formalisation of the consitution on broad terms - no more "gentlemen's" agreements, there are none in politics anymore.

Scotland will get it's second referendum and this time will leave. Ultimately they'll probably regret it economically imo.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
This talk of widespread bloodshed is a broken record now. Please stop repeating it, it isn't going to happen unless no deal brexit happens (and even then 2-3 years down the road).

The result will be a hung parliament with labour having around 5 more seats than the tories. They won't get a coalition but the snp and libdems will go into a confidence and supply agreement that also requires a 2nd ref after a short renegotiation period which will lead to a stable-enough government for now.

1 year on it'll fall apart and they'll be another general election in the first half of 2021. Another hung parliament although a proper coalition is formed this time (lab-lib no corbyn) and there'll be parliamentary reforms regarding voting method and how we govern, with more split between the executive and the legislature and more formalisation of the consitution on broad terms - no more "gentlemen's" agreements, there are none in politics anymore.

Scotland will get it's second referendum and this time will leave. Ultimately they'll probably regret it economically imo.
What, you think people like you are capable of proper civil unrest and violence with your pretty painted blue faces and trendy middle class demos? All because you did not get you undemocratic way?

You joker. You have no f*cking idea.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You're getting abusive to both other people and myself on here with your insistence that the country will rise up if we get anything except the harshest of no-deal brexits. I'm amazed that nothing has been done about it so far.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
You're getting abusive to both other people and myself on here with your insistence that the country will rise up if we get anything except the harshest of no-deal brexits. I'm amazed that nothing has been done about it so far.


It's all froth. All bark and no bite. He's actually harmless.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
cubes wrote:
You're getting abusive to both other people and myself on here with your insistence that the country will rise up if we get anything except the harshest of no-deal brexits. I'm amazed that nothing has been done about it so far.


It's all froth. All bark and no bite. He's actually harmless.
At a personal level, if someone is personally kind and respectful to me, I am the same in return. In terms of any other facets of me, personally or in terms of my social background, you don't know me UE. Don't make assumptions.

Last edited by Little John on Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:13 pm; edited 2 times in total
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Getting back to the actual topic.

Can anybody tell me how the tories and BXP could manage to avoid splitting the leave vote?

Farage has the power to stop Johnson in his tracks - to inflict massive damage to the tories at the election. He thinks he has the right to use this power as leverage to force the tories to give him a free run at a significant number of labour seats, which would give the BXP a proper foothold in Westminster.

Johnson would be bonkers to agree to any such thing. He thinks the tories have a chance of taking those seats themselves, at least if the BXP doesn't run. More importantly, he can't ditch his deal, because he needs the votes of people who won't accept a no deal brexit and are scared of Corbyn.

Is Farage going to chicken out at the last moment, because he's scared of losing brexit altogether and has realised the tories aren't going to back down on this? I don't think his supporters would let him, even if he was inclined that way himself.

this dilemma is rapidly being recognised for what it is by both sides. Read the comments on these articles on Conservativehome.com if you don't believe me. Not the articles themselves, but what the tory and brexit party supporters are saying about them:

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/11/farages-greed-is-johnsons-opportunity-why-conservatives-should-rejoice-at-the-absence-of-a-pact.html#comments

https://www.conservativehome.com/video/2019/11/watch-farages-ultimatum-drop-the-deal-or-the-brexit-party-contest-every-mainland-seat.html#comments

All they are arguing about is who is to blame for getting them into this mess, not the nature of the mess.

This means it now looks highly probable that the brexit party will stand in most or all mainland seats. And that is very bad news for the tories, and makes the result of this election wildly unpredictable. My guess is it means we are going to have an extraordinarily hung parliament with either

(a) a tory - libdem coalition which holds a remain vs deal referendum

or

(b) a Labour-SNP coalition which holds remain vs labour deal referendum, then a second Scottish independence referendum
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