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Nuclear risks and compensation
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
Yes it does actually. Typical "learning curve" values for Renewables are about 18% (i.e. cheaper per year). Of course, raw material inflation affects this (rather a lot actually) but it does for nuclear, too.


Err, so what does that mean exactly? Are we talking real or nominal terms? Or 'flight of fancy terms'? How does that little bit of whimsy apply to the UK's offshore wind farm proposals then?

An Inspector Calls wrote:
Let's now have a look at some typical offshore wind costs.

The first (I think) two offshore wind farms of any significance were North Hoyle (60MW, 81m)and Burbo Bank (90MW 120m). About 1.35m/MW dated circa 2003-6)

RWE propose to build the Gwynt y Mawr windfarm off the North Wales coast, a few miles along from those previous two. 576 MW at a cost of 2b. That's 3.4m/MW.


An Inspector Calls wrote:
Gwynt y Mawr is also a shallow water site. But rather than some tiresome spat as to whether or not it's shallow or not, as another example, which is certainly shallow water, we have Rhyl Flats, just along the road from North Hoyle. 90 MW for 198 m; that's 2.2 m/MWh.


I particuarly [sic - keep'em amused] like that last example at Rhyl Flats. Projected cost for that scheme was 90m. Outurn cost was 198m. Nice one!
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh so one project over-ran its costs...I jalouse it was just the one, since you keep quoting the same example. On the other hand I could quote ANY nuclear project and it will have over-run, likely in both costs and time.

The 18% was a figure I remember from the energy professional press, real-terms too, iirc, quoted for solar PV...admittedly 2 years or so ago now.
Quote:
'flight of fancy terms'
Oh dear more condescension. Are you worried about performance or something?
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RC, eternal optimist.
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pity you can't quote the source just a tad more accurately than:
Quote:
a figure I remember from the energy professional press, real-terms too

So, a 100 PV panel this year will be ~50 in 2015, and 19 in 2021.

I think I'll wait then, thereby earning an 18 % real rate of return on my non-investment! Thanks for the tip.

Oh, I see now! All those wind investors are just waiting for the prices to come down, like me, and then they'll invest . . .

And I think you mean suspect, rather than jalouse:
http://heritage.caledonianmercury.com/2010/11/30/useful-scots-word-jalouse/001660
Quote:
Quite late on, in the 19th century, [the English] decided to adopt the verb jalouse. However, the meaning was not the same as that of Scots jalouse. The English jalouse means to regard with jealousy.
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2011 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was using it in the original, Scots sense.
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