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The End of Nuclear
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biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 5:42 pm    Post subject: The End of Nuclear Reply with quote

Quote:
New Worldwatch Institute Report, Timed in Conjunction with Chernobyl Anniversary, Shows Nuclear Industry Was in Decline Even Before Fukushima
Washington, D.C.—Even before the disaster in Fukushima, the world’s nuclear industry was in clear decline, according to a new report from the Worldwatch Institute. The report, which Worldwatch commissioned months before the Fukushima crisis began, paints a bleak picture of an aging industry unable to keep pace with its renewable energy competitors.

“The industry was arguably on life support before Fukushima. When the history of the nuclear industry is written, Fukushima is likely to begin its final chapter,” said Mycle Schneider, lead author of the new report, The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2010-2011: Nuclear Power in a Post-Fukushima World, and an international consultant on energy and nuclear policy.

Some of the report’s key findings include:

Annual renewable capacity additions have been outpacing nuclear start-ups for 15 years. In the United States, the share of renewables in new capacity additions skyrocketed from 2 percent in 2004 to 55 percent in 2009, with no new nuclear capacity added.
In 2010, for the first time, worldwide cumulative installed capacity from wind turbines, biomass, waste-to-energy, and solar power surpassed installed nuclear capacity. Meanwhile, total investment in renewable energy technologies was estimated at $243 billion in 2010.
As of April 1, 2011, there were 437 nuclear reactors operating in the world, seven fewer than in 2002. In 2008, for the first time since the beginning of the nuclear age, no new unit was started up. Seven new reactors were added in 2009 and 2010, while 11 were shut down during this period.
In 2009, nuclear power plants generated 2,558 Terawatt-hours of electricity, about 2 percent less than the previous year. The industry’s lobby organization headlined “another drop in nuclear generation”—the fourth year in a row.

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/8069
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2011 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Switzerland has declared that will phase out nuclear, the first European country to make such a post-Fukushima announcement.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/13556283
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2011 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Leaving them to find 3GW of firm capacity generation elsewhere - and this to be renewables.

No hydro resources left, wind would require something like 15 GW of wind turbines, similar in PV. Wonder where they think they're going to get this?

This is going to be really interesting.

And the World Watch Institute . . . as it says on the tin

"Vision for a Sustainable World".

They don't have an agenda, do they?
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PostPosted: Sun May 29, 2011 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see, Switzerland will buy foreign wind farms!

http://www.bkw-fmb.ch/bkwfmb/en/home/ueber_uns/Medien/medienmitteilungen/2011/mai/bkw_erwirbt_in_italien.html

and:

http://www.bkw-fmb.ch/bkwfmb/en/home/ueber_uns/Medien/medienmitteilungen/2011/mai/co2-freie_stromversorgung.html

Ah, the wonders of interconnectors!
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
Switzerland has declared that will phase out nuclear, the first European country to make such a post-Fukushima announcement.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/13556283



Germany has declared that it will phase out nuclear, the second European country to make such a post-Fukushima announcement.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13592208

I can imagine a lot of pro-nuke industrial lobbyists feeling pretty glum as slowly, bit by bit, the realization dawns that there will never be another new nuclear power station commissioned in a Western industrialised nation.
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well never is a long time, but the immediate concern here must be finding the funds for any new nuclear build (rather the same problem as funding off-shore wind).

I know nuclear is about 25 % of Germany's installed capacity, so that should be at least 25 GW (?). Add in SWitzerland's initiative and we're talking of losing about 30 GW of capcity between now and 2022.

They say they have a plan! I hope it's well thought out! But the little I've heard involves initiatives like improving the efficiency of fossil fuel plants! Some efficiency improvement that's going to be. Oh, and of course, more cheap windmills and solar.

And needless to say, there have been a lot of comments doubting the sensibility and practicallity of this initiative.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/merkel-s-coalition-agrees-to-shut-all-of-germany-s-nuclear-plants-by-2022.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db203958-8a8d-11e0-b2f1-00144feab49a.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/areva-s-lauvergeon-says-germany-will-import-nuclear-power.html

I like the way the Swiss company BKW has moved towards greener energy:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/areva-s-lauvergeon-says-germany-will-import-nuclear-power.html
(buy wind farms in Italy! I might be wrong, but is this the done thing?)

One little quirk here might concern the interconnector businesses (those to the UK). It's highly unlikely that there'll be any surplus generation on the continent. France will be milking its surplus generation like there's no tomorrow. (except at times when the Loire runs low). There's no surplus here either, so I don't see them having a lot of business.

And this is going to be fun to watch. This is a colosal green experiment. If this turns pear-shaped there'll be an interesting back-lash.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not nearly as pear shaped as sticking with the non-green policy of wrecking the planet.
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
France will be milking its surplus generation like there's no tomorrow.
Why is that? (this is a genuine question! Are they short of capacity??)
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 10:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
Quote:
France will be milking its surplus generation like there's no tomorrow.
Why is that? (this is a genuine question! Are they short of capacity??)


I guess that AIC thinks that nuclear France will have a surplus of electricity generation capacity into the far future. Doubtless the black swans are heading their way as we write.
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Possibly. But they are building a lot of "L'éolienne" over there. And, unlike the Finns, they still haven't really, permanently, cracked the Waste problem (sorry, bad metaphor day...), with a whole fleet of nuclear power stations which may have served them well to get out of the oil crisis, but are rapidly approaching their sell-by.

Erm, energy-wise, if you could be a country, which would you choose? Damned if I know...
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2011 7:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lincolnshire could easily be energy self-sufficient.

I doubt whether the Germans are silly enough to assume that the French will have a surplus over the next decade or three. The French nukes will be past the best before date and replacement will be as difficult as anywhere else.
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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2011 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
Lincolnshire could easily be energy self-sufficient.


And keep this lot running? Pigs might fly.
http://www.businessmagnet.co.uk/town/scunthorpe.htm
(and that's just Scunthorpe)

biffvernon wrote:
I doubt whether the Germans are silly enough to assume that the French will have a surplus over the next decade or three. The French nukes will be past the best before date and replacement will be as difficult as anywhere else.

That's sounds more like aspiration than certainty.

They will have a surplus over the next decade; they usually have, and they will for sure if Germany cuts its nukes! (But things will be tricky for the Germans this summer because France has embarked on a large-scale nuclear inspection programme). I've not heard how they're getting on with their nuclear 20 year life extension plans, but there's no news that these have been cancelled. And have they announced that they want to cancel their new nuclear designs from EdF/Areva? And they remain, like us, very supportive of new nuclear build:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/areva-s-lauvergeon-says-germany-will-import-nuclear-power.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13594503
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2011 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scunthorpe used to be in the old Lincolnshire but is now in North Lincolnshire, so I wasn't counting it. Anyway, the biggest energy user there is the steelworks which will soon become an ex-steelworks. Of course, in the Lean Economy of the future many of the existing businesses now operating in Scunthorpe will be history only. The world will change. Some folk won't like it. Some folk will deny the need or even the possibility of change until it happens.

The French nuclear industry are included in the 'some folk'.
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2011 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I seem to remember (last?) summer the French importing electricity from us 'Roast Beef' because the drought had reduced river flows to the point where they could either run nuclear, or not fry their fresh water fish.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder if the Germans will ban cucumbers - after all, they've killed infinitely more people than the whole of the Fukishima disaster.

Meanwhile, their nuclear ban continues to progress well:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-30/merkel-s-atomic-overhaul-may-aid-industry-at-consumers-expense.html

The Germans have also said they won't be importing nuclear power from France; I think they're making this up as they go along.

Some background on the French nuclear industry for RalphW
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf40.html
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