PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Earth facing a mini-Ice Age 'within ten years'
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Climate Change
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 16151
Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think the IPCC made any prediction. It just presented models. The difference may be subtle but it's important.
_________________
http://www.transitiontownlouth.org.uk
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
snow hope



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 3840
Location: Belfast, N Ireland

PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
I don't think the IPCC made any prediction. It just presented models. The difference may be subtle but it's important.


The difference may be important, but they are still wrong so far.....
_________________
The economic expansion was driven by financial capital as banks lent more than they had on deposit, confident that Tomorrow’s Economic Growth was collateral for To-day’s Debt. Dr. Colin Campbell.
And that was the fatal mistake. Me
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 16151
Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

snow hope wrote:

The difference may be important, but they are still wrong so far.....


Ok, so you've not understood the difference. The model just says that IF **** THEN ****. Change the IF and you'll get a different THEN.

You might usefully argue that the IPCC did not use the right IF. For instance they did not include IF the oil depletes rapidly.
_________________
http://www.transitiontownlouth.org.uk
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
snow hope



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 3840
Location: Belfast, N Ireland

PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I fully understand the point you are trying to make, but I do not accept it.

The IPCC draw conclusions (such as mankind being the dominant cause of global warming), they highlight 'evidence' of warming from various scientic reports, models, data collection from various meteorlogical organisations. They summarise their findings and provide advice for policymakers, etc.

They say we are causing the climate to warm. The graphs they drew up, and/or highlighted in some previous reports have not been borne out so far, by actual temperatures, despite the number of reporting stations and data collection being reduced dramatically over the last decade or two.

What part of that do you not understand? Or do you simply choose to ignore that fundamental problem, due to your absolute acceptance of AGW?
_________________
The economic expansion was driven by financial capital as banks lent more than they had on deposit, confident that Tomorrow’s Economic Growth was collateral for To-day’s Debt. Dr. Colin Campbell.
And that was the fatal mistake. Me
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 16151
Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

snow hope wrote:
absolute acceptance of AGW?
Yep, about as absolute as rotundity of the Earth and downward effect of gravity on apples. There's no debate.

Have some bedtime reading: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf
_________________
http://www.transitiontownlouth.org.uk
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
snow hope



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 3840
Location: Belfast, N Ireland

PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
There's no debate.


Thanks for verifying my point.
_________________
The economic expansion was driven by financial capital as banks lent more than they had on deposit, confident that Tomorrow’s Economic Growth was collateral for To-day’s Debt. Dr. Colin Campbell.
And that was the fatal mistake. Me
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
An Inspector Calls
Banned


Joined: 27 Jan 2011
Posts: 961

PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
Don Easterbrook? Don't make me laugh!


James Hansen? Don't make me laugh!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 7789
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
...........and downward effect of gravity on apples. There's no debate.


Now that depends on how high you go. Go high enough and the apple will fly upwards towards the moon or sun! Very Happy Very Happy
_________________
BLOG

It is very, very, very serious indeed. This is the big one!" Professor Tim Lang, APPGOPO, 25/03/08. And he was talking about food, not oil or the economy!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 6621
Location: Bristol

PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
... I don't believe that we have a full grip on the relationship between Solar effects and greenhouse gas effects. The mechanism for the way the sun heats the earth and affects the climate are not fully understood, the mechanisms for the Little Ice Age and the Grand Minima are not understood for instance.


It might be because there isn't much of mechanism there at all.

Here's a new paper linking the Little Ice Age with volcanism.

Quote:
Abstract
Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures over the past 8000 years have been paced by the slow decrease in summer insolation resulting from the precession of the equinoxes. However, the causes of superposed century-scale cold summer anomalies, of which the Little Ice Age (LIA) is the most extreme, remain debated, largely because the natural forcings are either weak or, in the case of volcanism, short lived. Here we present precisely dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD, followed by a substantial intensification 1430–1455 AD. Intervals of sudden ice growth coincide with two of the most volcanically perturbed half centuries of the past millennium. A transient climate model simulation shows that explosive volcanism produces abrupt summer cooling at these times, and that cold summers can be maintained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols are removed. Our results suggest that the onset of the LIA can be linked to an unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg. The persistence of cold summers is best explained by consequent sea-ice/ocean feedbacks during a hemispheric summer insolation minimum; large changes in solar irradiance are not required

_________________
PowerSwitch on Facebook | The Oil Drum | Twitter | Blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website MSN Messenger
snow hope



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 3840
Location: Belfast, N Ireland

PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL Chris, at least you used the word "might"!

So that big yellow fiery thing in the sky that gives the Earth all its heat "might" not have anything to do with the cool (and warm) periods that the earth experiences over the decades, centuries and millenia?

Hmmmm, just strikes me as a little counter-intuitive........ would you not agree? Laughing

But say we accept that the period when the sun had practically no sunspots and that happened to coincide with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, was really down to explosive volcanic periods blotting out the sun and causing cooling. What then caused the Medieval Warm Period or the Roman Warm period or other warm periods in the Middle Ages?
_________________
The economic expansion was driven by financial capital as banks lent more than they had on deposit, confident that Tomorrow’s Economic Growth was collateral for To-day’s Debt. Dr. Colin Campbell.
And that was the fatal mistake. Me
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 6698
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

snow hope wrote:
LOL Chris, at least you used the word "might"!

So that big yellow fiery thing in the sky that gives the Earth all its heat "might" not have anything to do with the cool (and warm) periods that the earth experiences over the decades, centuries and millenia?

Hmmmm, just strikes me as a little counter-intuitive........ would you not agree? Laughing


Not really, no. Lots of things have affected the climate (atmospheric composition, orbit of the Earth, output of the sun, distributions of the continents on the Earth's surface...) - so it is a question of what has biggest the influence.

Now look at this graph:



Even taking peak oil into account, it looks increasingly likely that our CO2 emissions will screw up the climate BIG TIME.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 7789
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 2:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The sun's heat output doesn't vary enough to change the climate to the extent that happens, Snow. There are other factors at work which science can't, as yet, explain. We also don't know enough about trigger points and tipping points which can invoke an exaggerated response.
_________________
BLOG

It is very, very, very serious indeed. This is the big one!" Professor Tim Lang, APPGOPO, 25/03/08. And he was talking about food, not oil or the economy!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 6698
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's the big scientific mystery you are talking about, Ken?

This isn't gravity we are talking about here. There's no missing Higgs Boson of climate science.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 6621
Location: Bristol

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
The sun's heat output doesn't vary enough to change the climate to the extent that happens, Snow. There are other factors at work which science can't, as yet, explain. We also don't know enough about trigger points and tipping points which can invoke an exaggerated response.


Sure - the reason I mentioned this paper is that it adds a little new insight into this open area.
_________________
PowerSwitch on Facebook | The Oil Drum | Twitter | Blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website MSN Messenger
RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
Posts: 12045
Location: York

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

someone at the Daily Mail wrote:
The sun is heading into an unusual and extended period of hibernation

I think they were talking about the paper, not the big yellow shiny thing Smile
_________________
Soyez réaliste. Demandez l’impossible.
Space and Spaceability
The Year-Long Lunch Break
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Climate Change All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next
Page 5 of 10

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group