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Lord Beria3 · Joined: 25 Feb 2009 Posts: 3341 Location: Moscow Russia

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2003824/Earth-facing-mini-Ice-Age-years-rare-drop-sunspot-activity.html

biffvernon · Joined: 24 Nov 2005 Posts: 13914 Location: Lincolnshire

Sun spots are poorly understood in their cause and effect. Predictions about them tend to be wrong.

It's amazing what a denial-fest the media are having over three papers read at the ASA.

snow hope · Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:59 pm Post subject:

I have been trying to highlight for some time the predictions made by some that we are entering a solar minimum period of a few decades. The climate is going to cool as a result, maybe as much as it did during the Little Ice Age.

It is time people started to take the current measurements and state of the sun more seriously as it will have greater repercussions for us all than the current couple of decades of warming we have experienced....

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=33826
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The economic expansion was driven by financial capital as banks lent more than they had on deposit, confident that Tomorrow’s Economic Growth was collateral for To-day’s Debt. Dr. Colin Campbell.
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UndercoverElephant · Joined: 10 Mar 2008 Posts: 5839

If this happens then it may be what stops humans from creating a Venus-style runaway warming on the Earth. Not that this will save industrialised, globalised civilisation.

Kieran · Joined: 25 Jul 2006 Posts: 1091 Location: West Yorkshire

kenneal - lagger · Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:34 am Post subject:

I've been posting about this for over a year now and this chap has been talking about it for decades - http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htm. He has predicted Maunder Minimum type events in 2030 and 2200 (See his fig. 11).

Landscheidt doesn't relate the cooling to sunspot numbers as such but to the rotation of the sun about its axis and about the centre of the solar system. These affect the magnetism of the sun and from that mechanism its radiation output. Sunspot numbers do, however, drop to virtually zero for long periods over the periods of cooling. A short period of low sunspot numbers does not of its own account indicate global cooling.

There is other research to show that the cooling expected from this solar source would not fully counteract the warming by CO2 so we may not receive the full effect of a Maunder Minimum. Our climate could revert to temperatures of the 1900s, before the effects of global warming were noted. We could, in effect, have winters like we have had in the last two or three years every year for the next thirty or forty years. (I've already bought snow chains for my 4WD and shoes just in case)

Coming out of this era of solar cooling could be catastrophic though if we do nothing about the rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. We would go straight from a cool climate into one that is a lot hotter than we are experiencing now. If that also coincided with a period of high solar activity, which is quite likely, we could be toast very quickly as the excessive heat caused rapid melting of the permafrost and, possibly, methane clathrates and vast methane burps.

The danger is that politicians, egged on by the sceptic public and press, will not see the mechanisms involved in the cooling climate and will reduce their clamour for climate change action. It is undoubtedly expensive to ameliorate the effects of climate change and with the coming economic crash they may be persuaded to forget the Kyoto promises made in warmer times.

In view of the above, I would be insulating my house and storing a good supply of fuel and food if I hadn't been doing it for a number of years anyway.
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RGR · Last edited by RGR on Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:07 am; edited 1 time in total

[quote="Lord Beria3"]

2 As and a B · Joined: 28 Nov 2008 Posts: 2594

Deleted

RalphW · Joined: 24 Nov 2005 Posts: 3527 Location: Cambridge

I'm with Kieren.

If there is a cooling period from a solar minimum, then we are toast, long term.

The only upside is that I won't live to see it.

Lord Beria3 · Joined: 25 Feb 2009 Posts: 3341 Location: Moscow Russia

Ummmm - unlikely - there won't be much fossil fuels left to burn by 2030/2040 so the carbon emissions will have collapsed by mid-century.

I suspect the climate will be OK.
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RalphW · Joined: 24 Nov 2005 Posts: 3527 Location: Cambridge

There is plenty of coal left to burn, to bring atmospheric CO2 up to unprecedented levels.
It will be up there for a couple of centuries before it starts dropping again.

If we get through PO without economic and industrial collapse, we will burn every ton we can dig out of the ground. That will store up 6C warming for the end of the mini ice age if Hansen is right.

snow hope · Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:40 pm Post subject:

snow hope · Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:42 pm Post subject:

biffvernon · Joined: 24 Nov 2005 Posts: 13914 Location: Lincolnshire

biffvernon · Joined: 24 Nov 2005 Posts: 13914 Location: Lincolnshire

Another inconvenient truth is that we know a great deal about the effect of greenhouse gases on planet Earth but we know very little about Sunspots.

Anybody who predicts anything based on Sunspots will probably be proved wrong.
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