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The Americas have a plentiful supply of oil and gas.
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 12:55 pm    Post subject: The Americas have a plentiful supply of oil and gas. Reply with quote

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_americas_not_the_middle_east_will_be_the_world_capital_of_energy

Quote:
For half a century, the global energy supply's center of gravity has been the Middle East. This fact has had self-evidently enormous implications for the world we live in -- and it's about to change.

By the 2020s, the capital of energy will likely have shifted back to the Western Hemisphere, where it was prior to the ascendancy of Middle Eastern megasuppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the 1960s. The reasons for this shift are partly technological and partly political. Geologists have long known that the Americas are home to plentiful hydrocarbons trapped in hard-to-reach offshore deposits, on-land shale rock, oil sands, and heavy oil formations. The U.S. endowment of unconventional oil is more than 2 trillion barrels, with another 2.4 trillion in Canada and 2 trillion-plus in South America -- compared with conventional Middle Eastern and North African oil resources of 1.2 trillion. The problem was always how to unlock them economically.

But since the early 2000s, the energy industry has largely solved that problem. With the help of horizontal drilling and other innovations, shale gas production in the United States has skyrocketed from virtually nothing to 15 to 20 percent of the U.S. natural gas supply in less than a decade. By 2040, it could account for more than half of it. This tremendous change in volume has turned the conversation in the U.S. natural gas industry on its head; where Americans once fretted about meeting the country's natural gas needs, they now worry about finding potential buyers for the country's surplus.

Meanwhile, onshore oil production in the United States, condemned to predictions of inexorable decline by analysts for two decades, is about to stage an unexpected comeback. Oil production from shale rock, a technically complex process of squeezing hydrocarbons from sedimentary deposits, is just beginning. But analysts are predicting production of as much as 1.5 million barrels a day in the next few years from resources beneath the Great Plains and Texas alone -- the equivalent of 8 percent of current U.S. oil consumption. The development raises the question of what else the U.S. energy industry might accomplish if prices remain high and technology continues to advance. Rising recovery rates from old wells, for example, could also stem previous declines. On top of all this, analysts expect an additional 1 to 2 million barrels a day from the Gulf of Mexico now that drilling is resuming. Peak oil? Not anytime soon.


I would like to here from some of the more technically knowledgable folks here on why this is wrong.
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Bandidoz
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Right, let's try again at this shall we?
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RGR
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:10 am    Post subject: Re: The Americas have a plentiful supply of oil and gas. Reply with quote

[quote="An Inspector Calls"]

Last edited by RGR on Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it appears that it's not going to be 'Lights Out Tomorrow'.
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RGR
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An Inspector Calls wrote:
So it appears that it's not going to be 'Lights Out Tomorrow'.


Never is.


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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I get from the article is the sentiment that the barrel isn't really empty any more we can go on as before and waste this lot as well. Produce, produce, produce to make it as cheap as possible and waste it! Finite? What does that mean? There's a hundred years worth of gas at current rates of consumption.

But they're going to use it to produce tar sands oil, to replace nuclear and coal fired electricity, in cars ....! That current rate of consumption will rise and all too soon the cliff will sneak in under your noses.

"Why worry about the future? We can make a good stash now. Let them worry about the future when they get there." Does anybody learn from history? No! Sheer stupidity.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
That's because the amount of extra oil that could be produced from more drilling in this country is tiny compared to what the country -- and the world -- consumes.

Plus, any extra oil the United States did produce would likely be quickly offset by a cut in OPEC production.

According to a 2009 study from the government's Energy Information Administration, opening up to drilling areas off the East Coast, West Coast and the west coast of Florida would yield an extra 500,000 barrels a day by 2030.

The world currently consumes 89 million barrels a day, and by then would likely be using over 100 million barrels.

After OPEC got done adjusting its production to reflect the increased American output, gas prices might drop a whopping three cents a gallon, the study said.


CNN Money
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RGR
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal wrote:
What I get from the article is the sentiment that the barrel isn't really empty any more we can go on as before and waste this lot as well. Produce, produce, produce to make it as cheap as possible and waste it! Finite? What does that mean? There's a hundred years worth of gas at current rates of consumption.


Last edited by RGR on Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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RGR
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal wrote:

CNN Money


Last edited by RGR on Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 5:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Point is, even the MSM are starting to get the idea of resource depletion.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EIA estimates of global oil production peak shown to have a systematic optimistic bias. Use of proven reserves to production ration change shown to be poor predictor of peak production for US oil.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8186

Would you like to give TOD the benefit of your superior knowledge?
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RalphW wrote:
EIA estimates of global oil production peak shown to have a systematic optimistic bias. Use of proven reserves to production ration change shown to be poor predictor of peak production for US oil.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8186

Would you like to give TOD the benefit of your superior knowledge?


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RGR
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal wrote:
Point is, even the MSM are starting to get the idea of resource depletion.


Last edited by RGR on Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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RGR
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RalphW wrote:
EIA estimates of global oil production peak shown to have a systematic optimistic bias.


Last edited by RGR on Sun Oct 09, 2011 10:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
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An Inspector Calls
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Re the Oil Drum article linked above, and the EIA's use of the R/P ratio.

Is there a third concept applied to oil resources called 'KNOWN' oil sources - these being oil fields thought highly likely to exist but not explored and thus not proven?

What does PROVEN mean? The fact that we sit a an R/P ratio of 10 for much of the time seems to me to be a possible indication of corporate economic/project practice rather than any sort of indicator for how long production might continue. I have in mind an oil company, sitting on a known oil field, and proving new capacity year by year sufficient to guarantee the portfolio prospects of the company and to operate a sensible sized proving and productioin readying division. So the R/P value of 10 has little or nothing to do with forecasting peak oil.

But if this is bollocks, OK?
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