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Oil's 2019 Milestones

 
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 745
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:43 am    Post subject: Oil's 2019 Milestones Reply with quote

2019 milestones tell a decades story of abundance.

What an interesting oil and gas decade, compared to where it started.

Not that we talk about peak oil around here anymore (and for good reason, right? Smile ), but a look back sure reveals the difference between what some hoped and believed and prayed for, versus what we all got.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 686
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LNG exports have certainly benefited Australia being the third highest export earner after iron ore and coal. If the politicians had been able to correctly negotiate royalty deals the value would have been even higher.

Certainly a very interesting decade and no sign of peaking in oil prices any time soon although geopolitics is more of a driver for that. With all the progress in energy from renewables probably, demand will decline faster than supply.

Interestingly, today is two and half decades to the day of the Oklahoma City bombing. Now there's a real anniversary to remember.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 745
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:

Interestingly, today is two and half decades to the day of the Oklahoma City bombing. Now there's a real anniversary to remember.


And here is another. This is the 30th year of the modern peak oil claims, starting with Colin Campbell's global peak oil claim for 1990.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
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Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
BritDownUnder wrote:

Interestingly, today is two and half decades to the day of the Oklahoma City bombing. Now there's a real anniversary to remember.


And here is another. This is the 30th year of the modern peak oil claims, starting with Colin Campbell's global peak oil claim for 1990.


Another date for me to put in my diary. Incidentally, today is Hitler's birthday.

How is Dr Campbell doing these days anyway?
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 745
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
BritDownUnder wrote:

Interestingly, today is two and half decades to the day of the Oklahoma City bombing. Now there's a real anniversary to remember.


And here is another. This is the 30th year of the modern peak oil claims, starting with Colin Campbell's global peak oil claim for 1990.


Another date for me to put in my diary. Incidentally, today is Hitler's birthday.

How is Dr Campbell doing these days anyway?


Can't say I know. Once all of his peak oil dates came and went, even residual peak oilers themselves don't reference him anymore. Not a surprise, sort of hard to use him as a reference for anything serious related to the debate now, other than how not to do it. In other words, I love all his stuff!

Anyway, if memory serves somewhere during the higher prices of the last decade (call it 2011-2013) he popped up and wrote some article on how these higher prices were somehow proof of his by then 20+ year old claims. Of course, that was right about the time the US production response to price hit....after that I haven't seen hide nor hair. I think he is still alive? I should say, I haven't heard he has died, but that isn't the same thing.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dr Campbell was still alive at 87 18 months ago. There is a piece about him on peakoil.com
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 745
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
Dr Campbell was still alive at 87 18 months ago. There is a piece about him on peakoil.com


That forum is still alive? That is more amazing than Colin still kicking.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 686
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope you do a 2020 milestones as well.

This post from Reuters shows a lot of data about how shale has benefited a lot of rural counties. One has to be rather jealous of a man who gets, or rather used to get, more than $100,000 per month in royalties from oil extraction from his land.

Sadly, in the UK, and Australia too, unlike the US the government gets all mineral revenues.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:
I hope you do a 2020 milestones as well.

This post from Reuters shows a lot of data about how shale has benefited a lot of rural counties. One has to be rather jealous of a man who gets, or rather used to get, more than $100,000 per month in royalties from oil extraction from his land.

Sadly, in the UK, and Australia too, unlike the US the government gets all mineral revenues.


Back around 2014/2015, Harold Hamm was the keynote speaker at the occasionally annual EIA conference. He was pitching the need for the US to lift the law banning oil exports, but he also pontificated on why the US was kicking ass in oil and gas production. It was a wonderful mnemonic.

"Rigs, royalties and rednecks."

In the last century, when I was drilling in Canada on private property, right there in the doghouse was the drilling permit, and it listed the minerals rights owner. "The Crown". I found it quite interesting, compared to the same paper hanging in the doghouse onshore of a drilling rig in the States.

Some governments just don't want their folks defending themselves, nor owning their own mineral rights. Goodness knows what a mineral rights owner might do with the money!
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 686
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Sat May 23, 2020 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Goodness knows what a mineral rights owner might do with the money!


In the case of the Australian government oil and gas royalties the answer is nothing. They don't collect any royalties as the large multinational oil and gas companies pleaded poverty.

Now an on shore Texas shale deposit is somewhat different to an Australian conventional gas deposit but I would think it unlikely that a Texas mineral rights owner would allow drilling to go ahead of there were no possibility of royalties below $80 per barrel oil.

Whatever you think about shale you cannot argue with this graph and the effect on the US trade deficit.



Much better to have royalties going into the US rather than to foreign governments who could possibly spend it on inciting terrorism, developing hypersonic missiles or potent new neurotoxins.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2020 2:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Goodness knows what a mineral rights owner might do with the money!


In the case of the Australian government oil and gas royalties the answer is nothing. They don't collect any royalties as the large multinational oil and gas companies pleaded poverty.


I can beat that. Recently I was doing a global analysis of government take, and when I looked at Australia I was surprised at the outright subsidies they were handing out to companies to help pay for the pre-drilling exploration and planning.

BritDownUnder wrote:

Now an on shore Texas shale deposit is somewhat different to an Australian conventional gas deposit but I would think it unlikely that a Texas mineral rights owner would allow drilling to go ahead of there were no possibility of royalties below $80 per barrel oil.


I was participating in the TRRC meetings (prior to their determination that they weren't go to reinstitute prorationing) and there were investing groups representing mineral rights owners, and oh BOY they wanted some shut ins, didn't see any reason to sell their oil cheap. That was a sub $30/bbl argument though. If you want to wait until $80, you might be waiting for awhile!
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