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Greece Watch...
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:26 pm    Post subject: Greece Watch... Reply with quote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9077586/Germanys-Carthaginian-terms-for-Greece.html

Quote:
Premier Lucas Papademos pleaded for national unity the weekend. "We are just a breath away from ground zero. A disorderly default would set the country on a disastrous adventure. Living standards would collapse and it would lead sooner or later to an exit from the euro."

Well, perhaps, but remaining in EMU is also a disastrous adventure, and living standards will certainly collapse, which is why it ultimately makes no difference whether or not the Greek parliament backs the latest accord (I write before knowing the outcome of Sundays vote).

The policy cannot command democratic consent over time. The once dominant Pasok party has collapsed to 8pc in the polls. Support is splintering to the far Left and far Right, just like Weimar Germany under the Bruning deflation.

The next Greek parliament will be packed with anti-Memorandum fire-breathers, and any attempt by Greek elites to prevent elections taking place must push street protests towards revolution
.

In a sign of things to come, the Hellenic Police Federation has called for the arrest of Troika officials on Greek soil for attacks on democracy and national sovereignty".

It is clear that Germanys finance minister Wolfgang Schuble wishes to expel Greece from the euro, calculating that Euroland is now strong enough to withstand contagion, and that the European Central Banks `Draghi bazooka for lenders has eliminated the risk of a financial collapse.


Great article from Ambrose.

I think that the first Revolution (whether fascist or Communist) will happen in Europe in Greece (ignoring Hungary which has already had a fascist coup/revolution).

From there, watch Portugal, Spain and Italy closely as they drift towards dictatorship.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The far left is MUCH stronger in Greece than the far right. There is only one far right party, it polls 3%. There are three far left parties (including the greens), which between them a worth about 40% of the electorate as things stand.
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mobbsey



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
The far left is MUCH stronger in Greece than the far right.

Didn't stop The Colonels though, did it!
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mobbsey wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
The far left is MUCH stronger in Greece than the far right.

Didn't stop The Colonels though, did it!


OK. Let's imagine a far-right military government takes over in Greece.

What do they do? Very Happy

(about their currency, EU membership etc...)
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
The far left is MUCH stronger in Greece than the far right. There is only one far right party, it polls 3%. There are three far left parties (including the greens), which between them a worth about 40% of the electorate as things stand.


Agreed.

According to the latest polls, the hard left are doing very well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_2012#Opinion_polls

The most likely outcome of a Greek revolution would be of a far-left/Communist variety, but whether that happens in other countries is a different matter.
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JavaScriptDonkey



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:


OK. Let's imagine a far-right military government takes over in Greece.

What do they do? Very Happy

(about their currency, EU membership etc...)


Nationalise the banks and seize all the gold.

Leave the Euro and default on all their debts.

Issue a new Drachma and increase public spending based on their new stolen capital, buying favour with the prols as they dismantle the bloated bureaucracy and increase security spending to deal with counter revolutionaries.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JavaScriptDonkey wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:


OK. Let's imagine a far-right military government takes over in Greece.

What do they do? Very Happy

(about their currency, EU membership etc...)


Nationalise the banks and seize all the gold.

Leave the Euro and default on all their debts.

Issue a new Drachma and increase public spending based on their new stolen capital, buying favour with the prols as they dismantle the bloated bureaucracy and increase security spending to deal with counter revolutionaries.


Who would trade with them after that?
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energy-village



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 3:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
JavaScriptDonkey wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:


OK. Let's imagine a far-right military government takes over in Greece.

What do they do? Very Happy

(about their currency, EU membership etc...)


Nationalise the banks and seize all the gold.

Leave the Euro and default on all their debts.

Issue a new Drachma and increase public spending based on their new stolen capital, buying favour with the prols as they dismantle the bloated bureaucracy and increase security spending to deal with counter revolutionaries.


Who would trade with them after that?


If the Drachma is cheap tourists will come. Presumably Greek shipping will be more competitive. And perhaps even that famous Greek taramasalata and hummus will cease its double dip!
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Who would trade with them after that?

Anyone, if the price is low enough!
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
It is spelt "Greece" not "grease". How is it anything to do with Peak Oil?


Peak oil and the biggest crisis of capitalism ever occurring at exactly the same time.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
woodburner wrote:
It is spelt "Greece" not "grease". How is it anything to do with Peak Oil?


Peak oil and the biggest crisis of capitalism ever occurring at exactly the same time.


High oil prices contributed to the timing - but the crisis of capitalism would have happened anyway. The peak oil crowd shouldn't try and claim this as our own crisis.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
woodburner wrote:
It is spelt "Greece" not "grease". How is it anything to do with Peak Oil?


Peak oil and the biggest crisis of capitalism ever occurring at exactly the same time.


High oil prices contributed to the timing - but the crisis of capitalism would have happened anyway.


Yup. Fine coincidence though, well worth thinking about.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
woodburner wrote:
It is spelt "Greece" not "grease". How is it anything to do with Peak Oil?


Peak oil and the biggest crisis of capitalism ever occurring at exactly the same time.


Yes, the crisis in Greece and elswhere is only indirectly related to peak oil.
Greece, and many other countries have been living beyond their means for years, but had BAU, aided by cheap oil continued, then debts might have been repayable.
With a growing economy, debts that appear initialy unsustainable might have been paid in the future since they would be a smaller percentage of the enlarged economy.
Peak oil may have already arrived, if so substantial and sustained growth is also over. Therefore debts will become a larger proportion of a shrinking economy, and payment becomes less and less likely.
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Blue Peter



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:

Yes, the crisis in Greece and elswhere is only indirectly related to peak oil.


I wonder whether it - the whole debt-fuelled mess - is really a sympton of peak oil, specifically, the EROEI aspect of it. As we ran out of net energy, we ran out of the motor to growth. Not accepting this, people turned to debt (which only makes sense if you expect growth in the future to repay the debt) to give them the growth which was "natural".

Hermann Daly's lack of bankable projects provides evidence for this (see also The Archdruid),


Peter.
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mobbsey



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2012 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
It is spelt "Greece" not "grease". How is it anything to do with Peak Oil?

The mechanism fr how/why gets a mention in Murray and King's recent paper in Nature --
Quote:
The price of oil is likely to have been a large contributor to the euro crisis in southern Europe.
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