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Ukraine Watch...
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Makes some good points, Ukraine's economy declining, political collapse, energy supplies failing and 19 ageing nuclear reactors in operate and maintain. What could possibly go wrong?

http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/on-19th-day-of-christmas.html
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In a similar vein to Orlov, The Saker puts the latest developments into perspective:

Quote:
One can judge of the seriousness of these developments by the truly Herculean efforts made by the western corporate media not to notice them. Even the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Boris Johnson, who was in Kiev yesterday, was focusing exclusively on the upcoming Eurovision competition, and not on the dramatic developments taking place in the southeast.

In the Ukrainian context, the expression never say never is probably even more important than usual, but I will say that if what I think is happening is really happening, that is, if the Donbass is now de-facto cutting its last ties with the Ukraine and integrating Russia politically and economically, and if the junta in Kiev appears to have been unable to prevent the Nazi volunteers from triggering this crisis with their blockade, then this potentially means to very important things:
1.The Ukronazis have given up on the concept of reconquering Novorussia.
2.The breakup of the rump-Ukraine has begun


Good to see that clueless buffoon of a Foreign Secretary has demonstrated where the priorities lie Rolling Eyes

The Saker: The Donbass is breaking away from an agonizing Ukraine
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just watched The Babushkas of Chernobyl. Excellent: sad, entertaining, dystopic, funny at times, unreal sometimes; maybe a glimpse of the future.
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the recent spate in the Sea of Azov:

Quote:
The three Ukrainian ships tried to pass Russian waters without informing Russian authorities and without taking on pilots. Since Russia build the $3.7 billion Kerch bridge which connects Crimea with Russia, U.S. commentators and Ukrainian politicians threatened to blow up the bridge:

“The Kerch Bridge is an enemy’s infrastructure. It connects the occupied territory with the mainland of the aggressor country, that is why it is an enemy’s infrastructure,” Mosiychuk said on air of 112 Ukraine channel.
According to him, “any normal country” in a state of war strives for destroying enemy’s infrastructure. Answering a question whether he personally would destroy the bridge, he said that he would do it if he were the defense minister.

The Russians are understandably careful with any traffic near to it.

Following yesterday's incident the president of the Ukraine Pedro Poroshenko proposed to declare martial law. The parliament will have to decide on that. This is a very convenient move for Poroshenko as it will allow him to move the March 2019 general election date. Poroshenko trails in the polls with some 8% of the total vote.


Moon of Alabama: Russia blocks Ukranian Navy from militarizing the Sea of Azov
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hopefully this will not interrupt natural gas supplies?
We are very reliant on imports, very little of which comes DIRECTLY from Russia, but any interruption to Russian gas would have knock on impacts across Europe.

Oil also.

(I have deleted my earlier remark about this as it was in another thread. This is a better place for such discussions)
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just saw my comment above from three years ago... those nuclear power stations won't have got any younger or better maintained.
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Hopefully this will not interrupt natural gas supplies?
We are very reliant on imports, very little of which comes DIRECTLY from Russia, but any interruption to Russian gas would have knock on impacts across Europe.

Oil also.

(I have deleted my earlier remark about this as it was in another thread. This is a better place for such discussions)


Possibly although nothing definitive announced thus far.
Russia is moving ahead with plans to bypass Ukraine as a transit point for its natural gas with both a North Stream and two South Streams

This could have dire consequences for Ukraine:

Quote:
Nonetheless, the situation is asymmetric. Russia currently continues to rely on Ukraine for transit of its main traded commodity, while Ukraine continues to rely on Russia for a large share of its economic activity. In a recent note, Bruegel (http://bruegel.org/2018/01/the-clock-is-ticking-ukraines-last-chance-to-prevent-nord-stream-2/) estimated that Nord Stream 2 coming on line can cost Ukrainian economy ca 2-3 percent of GDP in foregone Russian gas transit earnings. South Stream is likely to add another 1.5 percent. In the longer run, overall cost to Ukraine of losing Russian gas transit routes can cost as much as 5-6 percent of GDP.

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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Saker, in his latest essay has an important update:

Quote:
UPDATE: Monday November 26th 11:11UTC:

Looks like Poroshenko ran into some real problems in the Rada. Unsurprisingly, pretty much all the political parties have immediately understood what this was all about and have categorically rejected the text Poroshenko submitted. They only adopted a much watered-down version in which the martial law is introduced only for one month, not two, and the fact that the elections will take place as scheduled has been re-confirmed. Thus our “favorite” Uber-loser Poroshenko again failed in his latest plan and we must expect more crazy stuff as this regime will not go down gracefully. Stay tuned!


Bad news indeed for Porky Poroshenko - whose popularity ratings are in single digits.
Is he threatening to kick off big style (and quite probably face another major military defeat in the process) against the Russian separatists/Russia itself?
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