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Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's spread by an external agent, the mosquito, so spreads more easily and quicker than something like ebola. Although it's not lethal it slows the successful reproduction rate and causes huge economic harm from the resources used to look after the severely disabled babies. (All good for short term GDP though Sad )

More important, though, from a humanitarian point of view, is the terrible effect it must have on the whole families of those infected. The trauma could persuade some families not to have children for quite a while.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And in several areas of South America health authorities are advising people to not get pregnant just now.
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some background:

https://theconversation.com/zika-a-rare-benign-virus-suddenly-turns-nasty-and-heads-for-the-us-52792
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4281
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
It's spread by an external agent, the mosquito, so spreads more easily and quicker than something like ebola. Although it's not lethal it slows the successful reproduction rate and causes huge economic harm from the resources used to look after the severely disabled babies. (All good for short term GDP though Sad )

More important, though, from a humanitarian point of view, is the terrible effect it must have on the whole families of those infected. The trauma could persuade some families not to have children for quite a while.

I believe the birth defects are fatal to the babies.
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The virus is not serious disease in adults. Is it like German Measles in that the adult quickly develops antibodies and defeats the disease, and it is only dangerous to unborn children if the mother catches it when pregnant? If so, it will not seriously slow down reproduction overall, and it may be possible to vaccinate against it, or it becomes a disease to catch whilst still a child, to avoid catching it later like chicken pox.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This report suggests that as a nation that we are ill prepared for the next outbreak of serious infectious disease.

The lack of significant vaccine manufacturing capacity is of particular concern, together with normal government dithering, delay, and talking rather than urgent action.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35381466

See picture to left !
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bill McKibben:

Quote:
The Zika virus foreshadows our dystopian climate future


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/25/zika-virus-brazil-dystopian-climate-future
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
Bill McKibben:

Quote:
The Zika virus foreshadows our dystopian climate future


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/25/zika-virus-brazil-dystopian-climate-future


I don't know why everybody is saying this is a subtropical virus. It is transmitted by several mosquitoes belonging to the genus Aedes. I see no reason why this should not include Aedes punctor, which is endemic in Britain, very common in Scotland, and readily bites humans.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We'll see how far north it gets in the US in a few years. That's if it doesn't get here before then on the back of a migrant from North Africa. I heard that the virus originated in Uganda.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Putting together this information from Wikipedia:
Quote:
Transmission[edit]
Transmission is via the bite of mosquitoes from the Aedes genus, primarily Aedes aegypti in tropical regions. It has also been isolated from A. africanus, A. coargenteus, A. luteocephals, A. vitattus, and A. furcifer.[20] During the 2007 outbreak on Yap Island in the South Pacific, Aedes hensilli was the vector, while Aedes polynesiensis spread the virus in French Polynesia in 2013.[19]

There have also been confirmed reports of two cases of sexual transmission and two cases of vertical perinatal transmission.[25] Like other flaviviruses it could potentially be transmitted by blood transfusion and several affected countries have developed strategies to try and screen blood donors.[26]


and these maps:

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/vectors/vector-maps/Pages/VBORNET_maps.aspx

I would judge the risk to be small in Europe.

Failing that, move to Iceland where there are no mosquitoes of any species!
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:

I would judge the risk to be small in Europe.


Based on what?

When I see some research as to whether or not Aedes Punctor aka the "Woodland Floodwater Mosquito" can transmit the virus then I'll accept that the risk is large or small. Right now, for all we know, this species is just as capable of transmitting it as all those other members of the same genus.

A. punctor is a temperate species. There's no reason why it should be on the list of species already known to transmit the virus because the virus itself has not, until now, been known anywhere near the northern temperate zones. It occurs in the northern half of north America. As this virus moves north, we will eventually find out whether A. punctor can transmit it. At the moment we do not know.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would think that the most likely vector for the disease into Europe would be infected migrants from North Africa who would be bitten by local mosquitoes which would then transmit the disease on.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
I would think that the most likely vector for the disease into Europe would be infected migrants from North Africa who would be bitten by local mosquitoes which would then transmit the disease on.
A Muslim I suppose, rather than a Catholic from South America (where the disease seems to be). Doh!
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are plenty of Christians in West Africa who are coming over as economic migrants who could bring the disease. People coming from the Americas tend to come by legitimate means and are more likely to be caught in any health checks.

You bought religion into it, Biff, not me! I am concerned about economic migration from where ever it comes, be it Europe, Africa, Asia of even the Americas.

And the disease originated in Uganda from what I've heard and spread across the continent from there. I possibly spread into Brazil with football fans last year.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2016 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Come on Ken, this is a disease carried by mozzies not people and in South America not not West Africa, at least for now. I think you're jumping the gun with idle speculation.

Bringing in religion was a joke but you seem to have missed it in your rush to blame immigrants from Africa. It might be better to concentrate on footballers.
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