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Hurricane watch
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:17 am    Post subject: Hurricane watch Reply with quote

Typhoon Vongfong has not caught too much attention as it declines to a cat 2 on reaching Japan but it's worth noting that out in a thankfully empty part of the Pacific it broke a few records beyond cat 5 with wind speeds of 180mph on 7th/8th October.

Quote:

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Oct 07 12 GMT 17.4 134.1 155 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 07 18 GMT 17.6 133.2 180 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 08 00 GMT 17.9 132.2 180 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 08 06 GMT 18.1 131.5 165 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 08 12 GMT 18.5 130.9 165 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 08 18 GMT 18.8 130.4 165 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 09 00 GMT 19.1 130.0 165 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 09 06 GMT 19.7 129.8 155 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 09 12 GMT 20.3 129.5 150 -999 Super Typhoon
Oct 09 18 GMT 20.8 129.4 150 -999 Super Typhoon


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2014/Typhoon-Vongfong?text=disc
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Closely followed by Cyclone Hudhud in India.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-29581787
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The intensity of these storms is all explained by this paper, Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus and relates to the upcoming Monster El Nino Emerging From the Depths? Nose of Massive Kelvin Wave Breaks Surface in Eastern Pacific

So it seems that there was a hiatus in Global Warming which is about to come to a shattering end caused by another El Nino! It will be interesting to see if the adherents to the 17 year Hiatus theory now come back with the fact that two peaks in temperature cannot be compared and we must take a long term average!!! Their argument is stuffed both ways.

Snowhope??
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to this report El Nino may be a little way off yet.

The trade winds will, however, continue to build warm water in the Western Pacific which won't do the prospects of those living there much good as the increasing warmth of the ocean will intensify typhoons even more.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Snowhope??


No, none at all.
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snow hope



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
Snowhope??


No, none at all.


Exactly! Twisted Evil

We shall see what happens.....
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2015 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Typhoon Soudelor, about to hit Taiwan, has had an interesting history, up to 180mph Cat5 down a bit, up a bit.... there's a lot of heat in the Pacific.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2015/Typhoon-Soudelor?map=history
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2015 1:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
Typhoon Soudelor, about to hit Taiwan, has had an interesting history, up to 180mph Cat5 down a bit, up a bit.... there's a lot of heat in the Pacific.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2015/Typhoon-Soudelor?map=history


kenneal wrote:
The trade winds will, however, continue to build warm water in the Western Pacific which won't do the prospects of those living there much good as the increasing warmth of the ocean will intensify typhoons even more.


And apparently the El Nino is upon us. Let's see what the winter brings. The summer hasn't been brilliant although it hasn't been particularly cold, just a hot spell.

I don't know where the rain into October prediction came from as this weekend is supposed to be hot and dry in the South East. I suppose it depends on where in the UK you live.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another Cat 5 typhoon about to hit the Philippines with a great deal of rain expected to be the main feature.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2015/Super-Typhoon-Koppu
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clv101
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hurricane Patricia is pretty incredible, record breaking, 200+mph winds!
Thankfully the area of Mexico affected is relatively sparsely populated.

Quote:
Data from three center fixes by the hurricane hunters indicate

that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and

SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia

the strongest hurricane on record in the National hurricane center's

area of responsibility
(aor) which includes the Atlantic and the

eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure

estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for

our aor. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could

occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery

shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend

toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the

intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast

shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the

very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after

landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than

predicted by the normal inland decay rate.




Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning

toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The

track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should

continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level

anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to

the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is

somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between

the GFS and ECMWF solutions.




The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone

near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted

upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.

However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of

moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally

heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico

coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from

local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.




We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force hurricane hunters

for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking

hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known

just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.




Key messages:




1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the

Hurricane Warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely

dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.

Preparations to protect life and property in the Hurricane Warning

area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as

tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.

Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the Hurricane Warning

area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be

catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes

landfall.




2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is

likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the

Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, michoacan and Guerrero continuing

into Saturday.




Forecast positions and Max winds




Init 23/0900z 17.0n 105.5w 175 kt 200 mph

12h 23/1800z 18.8n 105.4w 180 kt 205 mph

24h 24/0600z 21.7n 104.2w 60 kt 70 mph...inland

36h 24/1800z 24.5n 102.5w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

48h 25/0600z...dissipated




$$

forecaster Pasch

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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andrew Freedman on the details:
http://mashable.com/2015/10/23/hurricane-patricia-global-warming/?utm_cid=mash-com-Tw-main-link#j.VoKD1pFOqB
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Relatively sparsely populated maybe but Manzanillo, a seaside town of 160000 people is dead centre of forecast trajectory and there are 255,000 in Puerto Vallarta, 100 miles up the coast.

edit: eye looks to make landfall about halfway between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Phew, missed, but here's a good account of this (literally) extraordinary storm.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/hurricane-patricia-threatens-catastrophic-damage-to-mexico/2015/10/23/4cab988c-79d2-11e5-a958-d889faf561dc_story.html
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sat Oct 24, 2015 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The plane that flew into Patricia found 879mb

http://mashable.com/2015/10/23/pilots-fly-into-hurricane-patricia/#I_pXBY2VFPqE
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2015 has been record year for cat 4 & 5 (&7!) storms.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/record-most-category-4-or-5-hurricanes-typhoons
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