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Petrodollar watch
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1452

PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting article from TAE: Square Holes and Currency Pegs

Ilargi wrote:
What will bring down the Chinese and Saudi pegs, along with a long list of other pegs, is, how appropriately, the very same markets theyve been relying on to NOT function. The bets against Hong Kongs ability to maintain its USD peg have already started, and China is next, along with the House of Saud (the latter two just take more fire-power). Which of course is exactly why they speak their soothing confident words. Words that are today interpreted as the very sign of weakness theyre meant to circumvent.

What worked for George Soros in his bet vs the Bank of England and the pound sterling in 1992, will work again unless these countries are ahead of the game and swallow their pride and -ultimately- smaller losses.

Granted, so much will have to be recalibrated if the yuan devalues by 50% or so, and the riyal does something similar (its very hard to see either not happening), that it will take some serious time before everyone knows where they -and others- stand. And since volatility tends to feed on itself once theres enough of it, it seems to make sense that governments would seek control. But that doesnt mean they -can- actually have any.


The point being argued here is that many currencies that have been pegged to the greenback will have to ultimately go onto a free floating status. This would require wholesale currency devaluations - which has already occurred in China, which has also been dumping US Treasuries in vast amounts recently.

Another country that has been surreptitiously dumping US Treasuries has been Saudi Arabia. It has been prosecuting a costly and highly probably illegal war in Yemen, supporting the Jihadist thugs in Syria and has been hard hit by the collapse in the price of oil. Which is why Saudi holding of US Debt is suddenly a big deal
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
When Russia and China go the whole hog we'll see some fun.


Get the popcorn ready: Goodbye Petrodollar Russia Accepts Yuan
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
When Russia and China go the whole hog we'll see some fun.

Considering that the USA imports 8.5 million barrels per day second only to the European Union's 11.6 mbd I don't think anybody will ever sell oil in some other currency or barter from Vodka to Tibetan Yak wool pajamas without being fully aware of what a refiner would be willing to pay for the same oil in the US for dollars or in Europe for Euros and the exchange rate between them.
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biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Irans new oil policy could be met with military action by the US


http://www.thecanary.co/2016/02/08/irans-new-oil-policy-met-military-action-us/
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting, if long winded article at ICH

Peter Koenig: The Collapse of Western Fiat Monetary System may have begun

Interesting for this:

Quote:
Washington may have one last joker up its sleeve reintroducing the gold standard, the very gold standard that Nixon abandoned in 1971. The US have also been accumulating huge amounts of gold over the past 25 years. A new US dollar gold standard would most likely be set at a ratio that would wipe out all US debt, including future unmet obligations (GAO General Accounting Office) of about US$ 125 trillion. It would attempt to keep the western industrialized world in Washingtons orbit, but might lose most of the developing world owning natural resources coveted by the west. These countries oppressed and colonized for centuries are likely to gravitate to the new China-Russia alliance leaving the outsourced and outwitted west alone without workforce and with a massive but outdated military power.

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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Taking the gold perspective:

Alasdair MacLeod: China's Plan to Subvert the Global Dollar Standard

Alasdair MacLeod wrote:
Before the failure of the gold pool in the late sixties, and the subsequent abandonment of the dollar-gold standard in 1971, oil, in common with all other commodities, was effectively priced in gold, the dollar being merely the settlement medium. Since 1971, the oil price measured in gold has varied in a 350% range, while in dollars the range has been many magnitudes greater. If the dollar is to be undermined, the dollar-oil price may rise, but the dollars purchasing power eliminates any benefit. Russia will almost certainly want to revert to the pre-1971 regime, of oil priced in gold, allowing her to accumulate monetary reserves that retain their value.

So, we can begin to understand the importance of Sergey Glazyev sharing Chinas geo-strategic view. It confirms, that sufficiently provoked, the Shanghai Cooperation Organizations plan to operate without the US dollar, might have to be brought forward. The SCOs economic stability cannot be guaranteed by replacing one fiat currency in its death throes with another. Some form of gold convertibility will be essential, so those plans will be brought forward as well.

Perhaps China and Russia no longer have the luxury of time. Americas increased military belligerence in Trumps first hundred days might force their hand. Perhaps America, knowing her demise is becoming increasingly inevitable, has some dramatic plan under wraps to seize the financial initiative, as dramatic perhaps as the Nixon shock, when America abandoned the post-war gold standard. The instability brought into the geopolitical equation by the Trump presidency, and the early signs the US economy is grinding to a halt under the sheer weight of consumer and government debt, are increasingly likely to prompt China and Russia into firm financial action, if only to protect themselves in an unstable financial and monetary environment.

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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And now...the petroyuan.

Source

Quote:
China’s plans for the replacement of the dollar and the positioning of their own currency are very like Libya’s.


We all know what happens when countries start trading in other than dollars.

Quote:
In the previous few years China’s trade with Qatar had tripled. And now, guess what? Qatar has been declared by the US to be a sponsor of terrorism and US allies in the gulf have begun to blockade Qatar’s trade. Hmm. Any pattern emerging?

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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I've posted elsewhere" As long as the US imports 7.5 million barrels a day which is 20 percent of all the oil exported around the world and pays for it in dollars that can be used to buy planes, weapon systems and other USA made products the dollar will do alright. The Chinese or Russians might talk some seller to take payments in other currencies or gold but one side or the other will always be comparing the price against what they could get for the same amount of oil priced in dollars.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
As I've posted elsewhere" As long as the US imports 7.5 million barrels a day which is 20 percent of all the oil exported around the world and pays for it in dollars that can be used to buy planes, weapon systems and other USA made products the dollar will do alright.


It's not far off the day when that amount of high-quality oil is simply unavailable. Yes, not today or tomorrow - but a minuscule amount of time in empire terms.

There'll be time to adjust to the decline, which is what China and Russia are doing with these moves.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
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Location: NW England

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
Ecuadorian President: Dump the Dollar

Quote:
Correa has long warned the continued use of the dollar is holding back the economy, once describing it as a �straight jacket.�


In July, Ecuadorean legislators approved a law paving the way for the use of a parallel electronic currency for domestic use.


Replacing the Dollar with a localised version of Bitcoin??
Is Max Keiser advising him???


How Many Barrels Of Oil Are Needed To Mine One Bitcoin ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-28/how-many-barrels-oil-are-needed-mine-one-bitcoin

Have a guess before you read the link.... Smile
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 238
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
raspberry-blower wrote:
Ecuadorian President: Dump the Dollar

Quote:
Correa has long warned the continued use of the dollar is holding back the economy, once describing it as a �straight jacket.�


In July, Ecuadorean legislators approved a law paving the way for the use of a parallel electronic currency for domestic use.


Replacing the Dollar with a localised version of Bitcoin??
Is Max Keiser advising him???


How Many Barrels Of Oil Are Needed To Mine One Bitcoin ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-28/how-many-barrels-oil-are-needed-mine-one-bitcoin

Have a guess before you read the link.... Smile


I guessed 5. One barrel has 1700 kWh of energy. So 8500 kWh or about the average annual per capita energy usage in a developed country.

How wrong I was.

Are you trying to say that bitcoin is some kind of pseudo energy price tracker? You can turn energy into bitcoin but not the other way around.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pretty much the price of any commodity is an indirect energy price tracker

e.g.

cheese - made from cows - made from grass and other cereal based feeds that are sown, fertilized and harvested via the use of hydrocarbon derived energy

The price of cheese is an energy price tracker
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