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KSA Watch
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 594
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That bloke totally misses the point. Ghawhar is watering out due to saline injection [secondary recovery]. This is a slow motion train wreck as it's the worlds biggest easy oil resource. We are now well into the stage where water/oil separation is flat out and they either build a huge increase in capacity - for what? dying giant oilfields. The Saudis need an ever increasing oil price to balance the books. They could have used solar to reduce internal demand 20 years ago. Now it's way too late, and they will just squabble as it crashes [over 5 - 10 years].
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Moon of Alabama: Saudi Arabia - Night of the Long Knives is a panic fuelled move

Quote:
Since the incapacitated King Salman took the throne in Riyadh his ruthless 32 year old son Mohammad bin Salman has taken control of all branches of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi launched a war on a defenseless Yemen and supported al-Qaeda, ISIS and other "rebels" against the Iraqi and Syrian governments. He split the Gulf Cooperation Council by attacking Qatar. After a stalemate in Yemen and Qatar and losing in Iraq and Syria he has now initiated a war against Hizbullah in Lebanon. None of these bloody initiatives has achieved its aim of weakening the influence of the perceived enemy Iran. All of them helped Iran to consolidate its position.

The financial position of the Saudi state is in disarray. To the applause of the western claque Bin Salman announced the economic, social and religious liberation of Saudi Arabia. But little, if any, of the grand promises have been delivered.

Yesterday's purge can be perceived as a panic-fueled move. All of Bin Salman's endeavors have failed. The successful targeting of Riyadh's airport only underscores this. He is under pressure but unable to deliver. The internal resistance to him is growing.

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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The "anti corruption" drive is certainly spooking the financial markets.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41885567
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4104
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
That bloke totally misses the point. Ghawhar is watering out due to saline injection [secondary recovery]. This is a slow motion train wreck as it's the worlds biggest easy oil resource. We are now well into the stage where water/oil separation is flat out and they either build a huge increase in capacity - for what? dying giant oilfields. The Saudis need an ever increasing oil price to balance the books. They could have used solar to reduce internal demand 20 years ago. Now it's way too late, and they will just squabble as it crashes [over 5 - 10 years].


Agreed. Ian doesn't get peak oil.

Still, despite that he is an interesting and thoughtful analyst.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1453

PostPosted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WTF is going on in KSA?

First one Prince dies in a mysterious "helicopter crash" and now this:

The Duran Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz dies during arrest

It's like a 21st Century Game of Thrones
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The "anti corruption operation" is starting to look a bit like a coup, IMHO.
At the very least, these ongoing purges are not going to help oil production.

To maintain oil production from declining fields needs a lot of western expertise. I suspect that a lot of these experts will decide KSA is now a risky place to work, too much risk of being arrested for "corruption" or simply being shot in the crossfire.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest development, the crown prince of KSA, whom now appears to be the de facto leader, has accused Iran of supplying to Yemen the missile that was recently fired from Yemen into Saudi Arabia.
He has stated that "this may be an act of war"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41899643
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mikepepler
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is all reminding me of the opening chapters of Last Light...
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Latest development, the crown prince of KSA, whom now appears to be the de facto leader, has accused Iran of supplying to Yemen the missile that was recently fired from Yemen into Saudi Arabia.


This ludicrous claim has already been debunked by Janes:

Quote:
In the same night a missile launched by Houthi/Saleh forces in Yemen hit near the airport of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Such missile attacks are in retaliation for the intense two years of Saudi bombing of Yemen which by now probably killed more than a hundred-thousand people. While this was likely unrelated to the other events it added to the general anti-Iranian narrative the Saudis propagate. The Saudis claim that Yemeni missiles are of Iranian origin and launched by Iranian specialists. Iran denies this. Weapon experts at IHS Janes refute that claim:

Burkan-2 missile launched by Houthis is Scud derivative and is unlike variants made by Iran or DPRK.


Source

Then there's this:
The Duran: Leaked cable confirms Israel and Saudi Arabia are working together to start a Middle East war
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/11/08/saud-n08.html

Quote:
Predictably, the US media has generally responded positively to bin Salman’s crackdown on his domestic opponents. The only expressions of concern came from those worried that bin Salman’s aggressive clampdown could discredit and weaken the Saudi monarchy. Bruce Riedel, a 30-year CIA veteran and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, told al-Jazeera, “There will be much discontent behind the scenes in the family, and the Kingdom is headed for instability.”


The events in SA are quite remarkable.

MBS could lead to the implosion of the Saudi royal family grip on power, a bit like the last Shah of Persia in the 70's.

In the context of peak oil, this could have huge implications for the world economy and geopolitics.

On that note I still find huge denial about peak oil whenever I raise the subject. Most people/commentators seem to think it is no longer an issue!
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Most people/commentators seem to think it is no longer an issue!

They work normally on quite short timescales and very few actually do their own research.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
On that note I still find huge denial about peak oil whenever I raise the subject. Most people/commentators seem to think it is no longer an issue!


Indeed, but on the plus side folk of who have been paying attention have had over a decade now to get their 'house in order' and build resilience for the difficulties ahead.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A couple of very interesting articles:

TAE: How broke is the House of Saud?

Ilargi wrote:
In the end, it all comes down to a familiar theme: follow the money. And we need to seriously question the economic reality of Saudi Arabia. That graph above of their foreign reserves looks downright grim.

With money comes power. Who loses money loses power. Saudi Arabia is bleeding money. The population surge is uncanny, and there are no jobs for all these young people. Perhaps the best they can do is be a US/Israel puppet in an attempt to ‘redo’ the map of the Middle East, but that has not been a very successful project off late -like the past 100 years-.

Then again, when you’re desperate you do desperate things. And when you’re a 32-year-old crown prince with more enemies than you can keep track of, you use what money is left to 1) keep up appearances, 2) steal what others have gathered, 3) buy weapons up the wazoo, and 4) go to war.


Which ties in with:
Golem XIV Lebanon - the next front in the Great Gas War

David Malone wrote:
The Great Gas War has not finished. I suggest it is about to open a new front. A front that could ignite a wider conflict.


KSA is becoming increasingly irrelevant on the geopolitical front. They have bankrolled the jihadists in both Iraq and Syria to the tune of many $billions. They have lost here - an extension of the battle into Lebanon will not turn the tide.
This really is morphing into something like a Last Light and Twilight's Last Gleaming hybrid..
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4273
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
A couple of very interesting articles:

TAE: How broke is the House of Saud?

Ilargi wrote:
In the end, it all comes down to a familiar theme: follow the money. And we need to seriously question the economic reality of Saudi Arabia. That graph above of their foreign reserves looks downright grim.

With money comes power. Who loses money loses power. Saudi Arabia is bleeding money. The population surge is uncanny, and there are no jobs for all these young people. Perhaps the best they can do is be a US/Israel puppet in an attempt to ‘redo’ the map of the Middle East, but that has not been a very successful project off late -like the past 100 years-.

Then again, when you’re desperate you do desperate things. And when you’re a 32-year-old crown prince with more enemies than you can keep track of, you use what money is left to 1) keep up appearances, 2) steal what others have gathered, 3) buy weapons up the wazoo, and 4) go to war.


Which ties in with:
Golem XIV Lebanon - the next front in the Great Gas War

David Malone wrote:
The Great Gas War has not finished. I suggest it is about to open a new front. A front that could ignite a wider conflict.


KSA is becoming increasingly irrelevant on the geopolitical front. They have bankrolled the jihadists in both Iraq and Syria to the tune of many $billions. They have lost here - an extension of the battle into Lebanon will not turn the tide.
This really is morphing into something like a Last Light and Twilight's Last Gleaming hybrid..

KSA irrelevant? As long as the KSA exports twenty percent of the worlds exported oil they will never be irrelevant.
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