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KSA Watch
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 5664
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AutomaticEarth wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:
The Middle East and surrounding region is very likely to be where the world's next nuclear act of war is waged and there are a number of players who may end up being the one who actually commits the act.

You are sadly correct but I think the likely starter is limited to Iran when they get the capability. Their insistence on destroying Israel will push them into launching a nuclear tipped missile toward Tel Aviv and before that missile reaches it's target or is blown up by Israeli defenses every major city in Iran will cease to exist. Sad


Not really. Iran wont launch anything IMHO. Too much damage. Probably the reverse...
yep
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4264
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
AutomaticEarth wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:
The Middle East and surrounding region is very likely to be where the world's next nuclear act of war is waged and there are a number of players who may end up being the one who actually commits the act.

You are sadly correct but I think the likely starter is limited to Iran when they get the capability. Their insistence on destroying Israel will push them into launching a nuclear tipped missile toward Tel Aviv and before that missile reaches it's target or is blown up by Israeli defenses every major city in Iran will cease to exist. Sad


Not really. Iran wont launch anything IMHO. Too much damage. Probably the reverse...
yep

Nope if that were true it would already have happened.
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AutomaticEarth



Joined: 08 Nov 2010
Posts: 818

PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2016 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:
AutomaticEarth wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:
The Middle East and surrounding region is very likely to be where the world's next nuclear act of war is waged and there are a number of players who may end up being the one who actually commits the act.

You are sadly correct but I think the likely starter is limited to Iran when they get the capability. Their insistence on destroying Israel will push them into launching a nuclear tipped missile toward Tel Aviv and before that missile reaches it's target or is blown up by Israeli defenses every major city in Iran will cease to exist. Sad


Not really. Iran wont launch anything IMHO. Too much damage. Probably the reverse...
yep

Nope if that were true it would already have happened.


Nah.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4102
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sun May 22, 2016 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/22/saudi-financial-crisis-could-leave-oil-at-25-as-contractors-face/

Quote:
Three-month interbank offered rates in Riyadh have suddenly begun to spiral upwards, reaching the highest since the Lehman crisis in 2008.

Reports that the Saudi government is to pay contractors with tradable IOUs show how acute the situation is becoming. The debt-crippled bin Laden group is laying off 50,000 construction workers as austerity bites in earnest.

Societe Generale’s currency team has advised clients to short the Saudi riyal, betting that the country will be forced to ditch its long-standing dollar peg, a move that could set off a cut-throat battle for global share in the oil markets.

Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America, said a rupture of the peg is this year’s number one “black swan event” and would cause oil prices to collapse to $25 a barrel. Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves are still falling by $10bn (Ł6.9bn) a month, despite a switch to bond sales and syndicated loans to help plug the huge budget deficit.


Saudi Arabia in mounting trouble and its relationship with the USA is ever been so bad. Is Greer right that this year could be the end of the House of Saud?
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1452

PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zero Hedge: Saudi Finance Minister is Fired on Royal Orders

Quote:
While details of the transition are scarce, and it is unclear how Al-Assaf displeased the Saudi King, this is further evidence that a major power struggle is taking place behind the scenes, and whereas the terminated finmin should have been commended for his bond sale, the fact that he is being punished suggests that there is significiant infighting in the royal family, which will likely result in even more financial and political fallout for Saudi Arabia in the coming year, especially if oil continues its recent decline.


I presume that the bond issuance has inflamed the imams yet without it KSA would have been in an even worse place.

KSA are still finding the money to prosecute an illegal military intervention in Yemen though - one that has proving to be a quagmire
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It looks like the GCC have thrown Qatar under the bus by cutting all ties.

A sample of reports here here and here
Note that all of this happens in the immediate aftermath of Trump's visit to KSA and Israel.

Interesting analysis over at Moon of Alabama - Qatar has been supporting "the wrong type of terrorists"

Moon of Alabama: The GCC States Led by Saudi Arabia will collapse into oblivion

Quote:
The linch pin of all this is the Saudi war on Yemen. The Saudis support the Hadi puppet government of Yemen and two years ago aligned the other Gulf states, including Qatar, to fight against the Houthi in north Yemen. They accuse the Houthi of receiving Iranian support. There is zero evidence for that claim. The war and the coalition have failed. Houthi resistance continues unabated. With Yemen sinking into a famine thanks to a Saudi border blockade and a Cholera epidemic rapidly extending, the war must come to a close. Kuwait, Oman and Qatar are talking with the Houthi in Sanaa. Last week troops from the UAE used helicopters to again fight Saudi supported militia around the southern airport in Aden. The U.S. and Britain urge for the war to end and, behind closed doors, threaten to withdraw their support for it. The Saudi under their new leadership overestimate their capabilities. So did Trump when he raised their role. The Saudi "apes with Macbooks" do not have the capabilities needed for a serious political actor in this world. Their money can paper over that for only so long.

The above all reminds of a prediction made nearly two years ago by a Yemeni lawyer in Sanaa :

@Bafana3
At the end of this war on #Yemen, the GCC states led by Saudi Arabia will collapse into oblivion. I do not know what will replace them.
9:29am · 15 Aug 2015

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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Duran Saudi Arabia gives 24 hour ultimatum to Qatar

KSA accusing Qatar of sponsoring terrorism is like the pot calling the kettle black.

Whilst militarily Qatar is no match for KSA there is the always the likelihood of blowback. After all in military terms KSA have fared poorly in Yemen thus far. It should also be noted that Qatari soldiers are part of their military alliance in Yemen
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Little John



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is beginning to feel like a Franz Ferdinand moment
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
This is beginning to feel like a Franz Ferdinand moment


Yes, but the markets seem relaxed.
The oil price has actually fallen, when I would expect the opposite.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Little John wrote:
This is beginning to feel like a Franz Ferdinand moment


Yes, but the markets seem relaxed.
The oil price has actually fallen, when I would expect the opposite.


Brent down 3.8% and WTI down 4.9%

If this plan was to ratchet up oil prices it has backfired

Another thing that has thrown a spanner in the works is that of Turkey.

Al Jazeera: Turkey to fast track deployment of troops to Qatar

Moon of Alabama: The Saudis demand a total surrender but Qatar may not fold

Quote:
Qatar is quite fast in getting its ducks into a row. It quickly solved the most immediate problems resulting from the Saudi border blockade. It called in Turkish military reinforcement to stave of a Saudi invasion. Iranian and Russian (military) supplies will be very valuable in any longer fight. Europe will not back the Saudis and will not support a Saudi annexation. It will press for solving the issue peacefully. Qatar has enough financial capabilities and reserves to withstand a longer crisis.

There is no reason for Qatar to give in soon to the overbearing Saudi demands. The ruling "young leader" - Deputy Clown Prince Mohammad bin-Salman - has (again) overestimated his capabilities. The Saudis were sure that Bashar Assad in Syria would leave in 2011 or 2012. The Houthis in Yemen would be defeated in a few days or weeks they thought. Years and billions of Saudi dollars later both are still in place.

Now the Qatari ruler Tamim bin Hamad is expected to fold in a day or two. Qatar may eventually have to submit to the Saudi demands and rule, but I sincerely doubt that this will happen anytime soon.


This puts the Saudis in a real bind. Will they carry out their threat which could then bring direct conflict with Turkey and quite probably Iran as well?
Or skulk off into the corner with egg on its face?
What this episode also highlights is the complete idiocy of Trump. If he believed that Qatar needed to be "brought to heel" by these actions what it will result in is either the acceleration of the decline of US influence in the M.E. Either that or Threads
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This will not help !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41872995

Early reports suggest that a missile was fired at the KSA.
This has happened before, but AFAIK no missile has previously got so near the capital. Suspected to be from Yemen.
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Major purge of princes and others on corruption charges. This is a further power grab, but could prove destabilising
.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
Major purge of princes and others on corruption charges. This is a further power grab, but could prove destabilising
.

You have to wonder what the truth of the charges really is? Or if those doing the arresting are any more innocent then those being arrested and driven out of power. A true and effective anti corruption campaign would be a good thing for any country and especially one where power is in the hands of so few.
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Saudi missile "interception of a Yemeni missile" appears to be a ruse in order to close Saudi airspace. This then shuts down a potential escape route for any implicated Saudi Prince and or Minister.

Another interesting development:

Quote:
According to the AngryArab blog, the removal of Prince Miteb bin Abdullah as head of the National Guard, means that "this is the first time that the National Guard is not in the hand of Abdullah or his son."


This will have gravitas in Saudi Arabia no doubt - a changing of the guard.

Quote:
To summarise today's even more bizarre Saudi news day:
â—¦Trump urges Aramco IPO
â—¦Lebanon PM resigns
â—¦Saudis intercept missile
â—¦Major cabinet reshuffle; 3 Saudi princes - who run the anti-graft committee - arrested for money-laundering
â—¦A total of 11 princes, >30 ministers arrested on corruption

This is a developing story.



Zero Hedge: In a Shocking Purge Saudi King Arrests Billionaire Prince bin Talel Dozens of others in Corruption Crackdown

One thing to keep your eye out for: Lebanese PM Hariri's resignation could be the opening gambit of a Saudi sponsored war on Hezbollah
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.ianwelsh.net/saudi-arabian-crown-consolidates-control-as-war-looms/

Quote:
Right, so there is a purge in Saudi Arabia, with princes arrested for “corruption” (they’re surely corrupt, but in Saudi Arabia that’s like saying they drink water), but more importantly, the National Guard commander was arrested and replaced with the Crown Prince, and the navy commander was also replaced.

A new anti-corruption committee led by the crown prince will continue the purge.

This has shades of what’s been going on in China, where Xi Jinping is called the “chairman of everything”, because he’s in charge of every important committee. In Saudi Arabia it is the crown prince.

Power is being consolidated. It is true that Saudi Arabia has big problems and larger challenges coming down the pike. The most important should be the price of oil, which can be expected to continue its relative decline over the next couple decades as electric cars and so on come on line.

But a lot of it is also chosen: the war in Yemen is a self-inflicted wound, as is the (related) confrontation with Iran.

That confrontation is barreling ahead, and it is the likely next significant war, not North Korea. The resignation of Lebanese PM Saad Hariri (who lives part time in Saudi Arabia) is part of the clearing of decks for the next phase, which will be another attempt to take out Hezbollah.


Something is stirring in the ME. Is war looming?
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