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extreme climate change models

 
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8640
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 10:09 pm    Post subject: extreme climate change models Reply with quote

This is a bit of a long shot, but does anybody know of any online (or otherwise available) information about what might happen to the global climate in a worse case scenario? Say multiple positive feedback mechanisms kick in and global average temperatures go up by 10 or 15 degrees C. Are there any models that show how much land gets flooded or what parts of the Earth' surface remain above the water line and habitable in this situation?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 5667
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Point Of No Return

http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/PageFiles/480942/Point_Of_No_Return.pdf

Particularly salient to your question are pages 23 to 25. And all of the above terrifying predictions are only in terms of a rise of 4 or so degrees! If the temperature went up by 15 degrees, I suspect all life on earth could be toast.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8640
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 12:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
The Point Of No Return

http://www.greenpeace.org/australia/PageFiles/480942/Point_Of_No_Return.pdf

Particularly salient to your question are pages 23 to 25. And all of the above terrifying predictions are only in terms of a rise of 4 or so degrees! If the temperature went up by 15 degrees, I suspect all life on earth could be toast.


Thanks for the link.

I'm both pessimistic and optimistic about this.

I'm pessimistic in the sense that I think the 2 degree rise is unstoppable, and that I think that this will unleash further warming due to positive feedback mechanisms out of our control.

But I'm optimistic in the sense that I don't think this means toast for all life on earth, even if the feedback mechanisms and industrialised civilisation between them do their worst. I'm not aware of any scientific model that points to a runaway greenhouse effect (only speculation). And it is reasonable to assume that a 10 degree rise would cause so much damage in terms of food production, water availability, sea level, etc... that the human population would be reduced to a fraction of its current level, and consequently less able to f*** things up any more.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sea level is fairly easy, in a +10C warmer world, there wouldn't be any land ice left: http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-map

Something people don't talk about so much is the wet bulb temperature exceeding mammal body temperature: http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.full
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8640
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Sea level is fairly easy, in a +10C warmer world, there wouldn't be any land ice left: http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-map

Something people don't talk about so much is the wet bulb temperature exceeding mammal body temperature: http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.full


Thanks. That's what I was after...
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2015 3:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only slightly optimistic thing is that according to the Milankovic cycles we are heading into a new ice age in about 10,000 years so the cooling in 5000 years time might take the edge off global warming! That is, of course, if the cooling trend is linear which, of course, it might not be.
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